Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Oversold market rallies in the last hour

Stocks had been lower all day, but shot up at day's end.  Dow exploded to finish up 153 (but still just below the Aug 8 closing low), advancers ahead of decliners 4-3 & NAZ gained 68 (helped by Apple paring earlier losses).  Financials led the way higher with a solid gain for the Financial Index.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value158.08One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    6.23    (4.1%)

The MLP index had an unusually wild day, bouncing nicely off the 316 low made in May to finish near break even, while the REIT index rose 8+ to the 202s.  Junk bond funds fell 5% closing near the lows, don't see that too often, while Treasuries were little changed, helped by the flight to safety.  Oil continues weak on worries about an economic downturn.   Gold has been hard to figure out.  It should have benefited from being the ultimate safe haven investment, but it looks like overbought has been a greater negative influence.

Alerian MLP Index

Value331.10One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change   -1.05    (-0.3%)


Get the latest market update below:



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

-0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.247%

U.S. 10-year

1.781%

CLX11.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 11...75.72 ...Down 1.89  (2.4%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Apple Debuts IPhone 4S With Faster Chip

Photo:   Bloomberg

Apple introduced a new iPhone, but may have left some fans wishing for more than an updated version of last year's smartphone.  CEO Tim Cook hosted his first major product launch with aplomb, standing in for ailing co-founder Steve Jobs.  The new iPhone is faster, souped-up & comes with voice recognition & a better camera as expected, but did little to lift the bar for smartphones.  Investors & AAPL fans, who were looking to be blown away by some amazing new surprise, sold the stock.  This comes at a critical juncture as Android phones by Samsung & other competitors close in on the iPhone lead.  Android phones dominate the US market 3 years after Google introduced the software.  AAPL must sustain the popularity of iPhone 4, which is more than a year old (selling more 20M units in its Q3).  The company also claims inroads into a corp market dominated by Research in Motion (RIMM) with more than 90% of Fortune 500 companies testing or using its iPhones & iPads.  AAPL was down only 2 (18 above its lows of the day). 

Apple Speeds Up iPhone, Improves Camera, To Counter Android

Apple Inc. (AAPL)


stock chart




Photo:   Yahoo

Ben Bernanke said the economic recovery "is close to faltering" & the central bank is prepared to take further steps to support it.  He said the economy is growing more slowly than the Federal Reserve (FED) had expected.  The biggest factor depressing consumer confidence is poor job growth.  "We need to make sure that the recovery continues and doesn't drop back and that the unemployment rate continues to fall downward," Bernanke said.  Markets had risen after he had previously hinted at a QE3, then markets fell back.  Bernanke offered his grim assessment after the economy barely grew in H1 & it created no net jobs in Aug.  Consumer confidence fell this summer to the lowest point since the recession.  Europe's debt crisis has also intensified.  After their Sep meeting, FED policymakers warned of significant downside risks to the economic outlook.  As a result, the FED voted to shift $400B of its portfolio from short- to longer-term Treasurys to try to drive down long-term rates.  The economic picture remains glum.

Bernanke says economic recovery close to faltering AP


The VIX, volatility index, has gone thru a lot this year.  It soared in May on increased fears as the market sold off.  Since then it has had a choppy time of it, remaining near 40 (far above its previous levels in the teens).  Today the volatile VIX fell 4+ to just under 41.

Volatility Index (^VIX)


The decline for the popular averages brought them to a 20% decline from their recent highs, one signal of a bear market.  Buyers returned with a vengeance in the last hour on reports that European officials were working on a plan to prop up the region's struggling banks.  At its lows, Dow had dropped 800 in 4 days.  It was entitled to a rally, bargain hunters are still around.  No matter what comes of the rumors, fundamental banking problems have not vanished.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart


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