Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Markets rise while waiting for debt plan details

Dow rose 162 (all in the PM), advancers over decliners 4-1 & NAZ added 12 (the gain was limited by a 28 drop for Amazon).  Bank stocks led the way higher.  The Financial Index was up 3+ to the 178s, making another attempt to top its 3 month high of 181. 

The MLP index shot up 5+ to 372 while the REIT index gained 2+ to the 223s.  Each is having a stellar month, outpacing the Dow.  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries sold off with the rising stock market.  Oil dropped the most in more than 3 weeks after a gov report showed a larger-than- projected gain in US stockpiles.  Gold continues strong, recovering back to $1700+ on bets the European debt mess won't be worked out.

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)



DJ REIT INDEXDJR (^DJR)




Click below for the latest market update:



CLZ11.NYM...Crude Oil Dec 11...90.42 ...Down 2.75  (3.0%)

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.015%

U.S. 2-year

0.289%

U.S. 10-year

2.205%


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




U.S. Stocks Advance as EU Leaders Reach Agreement

Photo:   Bloomberg

The photo shows the Greek PM hugging the PM from Luxembourge.  Hmmmm!



Photo:   Yahoo

I like this picture of German Chancellor Merkel, it tells a more realistic story.  Poland's finance minister says big European banks will be required to raise their capital cushions to 9% of their risky investments by next Jun, in line with intl banking guidelines that come into effect in 2019.  This was announced after a meeting of 27 EU leaders.  European banks need to shore up their finances because they have significant exposure to debt by govs with shaky finances.  On Greece's debt they could soon be asked to take substantial losses, as leaders try to find a way to dig Europe out of its debt crisis by lightening Greece's debt load.  It's hard to believe that this is all that is required for a major sock market rally!  Oh yes, there is also a report that China will supply money for the European bailout.





Photo:   Yahoo

With its 10th straight quarterly profit, Ford is becoming a victim of its own success.  A $1.6B profit in Q3, down 2% from a year earlier, beat expectations.  But the  stock sank, disappointed by slowing growth, rising costs & the decision to hold off on paying a div. There were expectations that Ford would reinstate its div which it stopped 5 years ago.  But CFO Lewis Booth said the company isn't ready to take that step despite having $8B in cash.  It still needs to focus on improving its finances.  "We want to return to paying a dividend as soon as we think our balance sheet can stand it," Booth said.  EPS was 41¢ versus 43¢ last.  Profit were lowered by a $350M non-cash charge to reflect falling prices of some commodities such as copper & aluminum.  Ford had bet those prices would be higher & the charges could reverse if commodity prices rise in the future.  Ford earned 46¢ excluding the costs of closing its Mercury brand, beating expectations of 45¢.  Revenue rose 14% to $33.1B.  The pretax profit was $1.6B in North America, unchanged from a year ago.  Higher prices & rising sales of more profitable vehicles like the Ford Explorer SUV & F-Series pickup trucks helped offset higher costs for materials.  But Ford lost money in Europe & Asia, where it recently embarked on an aggressive 4-year expansion plan.  Sales will be hurt in the Q4 by flooding in Thailand which has disrupted suppliers (expect more such announcements).  The stock fell 56¢ (5%).

Ford Declines as Commodity-Hedge Losses Squeeze Automaker’s Profit Margins

Ford Motor Credit Company (F)


stock chart




Photo:   Yahoo

Corning profits rose 3% in Q3, lifted by surging sales of optical fiber & glass for flat-panel TVs, smartphones & touch-screen tablets, easily beating expectations. GLW signaled that US retail demand for liquid-crystal-display TVs has gathered pace in recent months & South Korean TV-panel makers are boosting glass production in Q4.  While worldwide demand for LCD TVs is up 20% this year, previously sluggish US sales climbed 10% in Jul & Aug & 13% in Sep, "which is actually the strongest growth rate we've seen all year," said CFO Jim Flaws.  "And for the first two weeks of October, sales in the U.S. are up 13 percent," Flaws said.  The world's largest maker of LCD glass, with more than 60% of the global market, had EPS of 51¢ in Q3, up from 50¢ last year.  Excluding special items, adjusted earnings were 48¢, well above expectations of 42¢.  Revenue jumped 30% to $2.08B from $1.6B (expectations were for $2.03B).  Sales of LCD glass bounded 26% higher in Q3 to $815M & sales of the telecommunications unit rose 21% to $560M.  GLW also saw double-digit growth in its other 3 units: Gorilla cover glass, auto-pollution filters & research labware.  "It's obviously a difficult economic environment and we're dealing with a difficult contraction in the supply chain in the second half," Flaws said. "But I'd remind people we're on pace to reach" a record $7.9B in sales this year & $10B by 2014.  The stock rose 41¢ (3%).

Corning's 3Q profit rises 3 percent AP

Corning Incorporated (GLW)

stock chart


Stocks had another impressive gain after learning that European leaders may come up with another bailout plain.  Getting China involved in the finances would be a plus.  But this is all very fuzzy, details are not clear.  Nor have all 27 countries signed off on these vague plans.  I have my doubts, but Dow is up over 950 in Oct, not a bad month, especially when the US economic recovery is only sputtering.  GDP for Q3 should be out shortly.  Expectations are for limited growth which is probably already baked into the market.  The VIX has settled back during the rally, remaining elevated.  Earlier this year, when the market was rising, it was in the teens.

Volatility Index (^VIX)



Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart



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