Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Markets ride high on European bailout hopes

Dow gained 102 (but 110 below its highs), advancers over decliners 4-1 & NAZ was up 21.  Bank stocks led the way higher but also finished below the daily highs.  The Oct rally is noticeable in the 1 year chart.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value171.61One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   4.46     (2.7%)

MLPs & REITs had a good day with the REIT index up 3+ to the 209s.  Junk bond funds were 1-2% higher while Treasuries fell.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury rose & is almost 50 basis points above its record lows at the end of Sep.  Oil slipped but gold is strong & looks like it wants to get back to $1700.

Ten Year Treasury (^TNX)



Alerian MLP Index


Value350.74One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change   1.58    (0.5%)


Click below for the latest market update:



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.015%

U.S. 2-year

0.285%

U.S. 10-year

2.217%

CLX11.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 11...85.45 ...Down 0.36  (0.4%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]







Jose Manuel Barroso
Photo:   Yahoo

Europe's biggest banks must raise billions of €s in capital to better withstand market turmoil, the European Commission proposed as it embarked on a major push to contain the continent's escalating debt troubles & avert a 2nd recession.  The fear gripping the financial sector is that banks may soon have to take big losses on bonds they own from govs with shaky finances, like Greece. That uncertainty is stifling lending, both between banks & to the wider economy, threatening to kill off a halting recovery in the 17-nation eurozone & much of the rest of the world.  The Commission believes that boosting confidence in Europe's financial sector is a crucial step that will allow the continent's leaders to tackle Greece's massive debts & stop the debt crisis from spinning out of control.  The commission also is trying hard to protect large, troubled economies like Italy & Spain, which are too big to be bailed out, from being dragged into the debt crisis.  These proposals, presented by Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, foresee that key lenders in Europe will have to implement new intl rules on bank capital much earlier than 2019, as was initially planned.  Barroso also warned that banks should not be allowed to pay out dividends or bonuses until they have raised their capital buffers to the new standards.  Thoughts are fine, but actions are what counts.

European Union Seeks Higher Bank Capital, Greek Payout as Crisis Worsens




Photo:    Yahoo

PepsiCo, a Dividend Aristocrat, found its recipe for success in this economic environment: raise prices & grow overseas.  PEP showed that the emphasis on higher prices growing overseas business paid off in Q3.  Profits rose 4%, beating expectations.  EPS was $1.25, up from $1.19 last year.  Excluding charges related to its acquisition of Russian juice, dairy company Wimm-Bill-Dann & other one-time items, EPS was $1.31 while revenue climbed 13% to $17.6B.  Results beat expectations of $1.30 on revenue of $17.1B.  Sales increased in both snacks & beverages.  The biggest revenue gains came from overseas, with Europe reporting a 37% revenue increase because of higher prices & the addition of Wimm-Bill-Dann.  Revenue for Asia, the Middle East & Africa rose 25% particularly in emerging markets.  The Latin America Foods unit posted a 19% increase in revenue, led by Mexico & Brazil.  In North America, Frito-Lay reported a 4% increase in revenue on strong sales of its Lay's Doritos, Cheetos & Ruffles brands.  Beverages has been its softest segment as consumers cut back on spending & showed a preference for other drinks.  The business posted a 3% revenue increase, largely on higher prices.  Gatorade led volume growth for non-carbonated beverages in North America.  PEP reaffirmed its guidance for the year, but said it would wait until Dec to provide 2012 guidance to see how commodity prices, the economy & consumer response to higher prices play out.  The stock rose 1.75 in what has been a lackluster year.

PepsiCo Profit Increases 4.1% on Higher Prices and Sales in Latin America

Pepsico, Inc. (PEP)


stock chart


JPMorgan, a Dow stock & the first major bank to report earnings, may say that profit slid 10% in Q3, the biggest drop in more than 2 years, as Europe’s credit crisis & the US debt-ceiling debate spoiled optimism for an economic recovery.  Tomorrow’s report will probably show earnings of $3.96B down from $4.42B last year & $5.43B in Q2.  JPM braced investors last month for a 30% drop in trading revenue from Q2, when $5.5B was generated from that business.  Fees from investment banking could tumble 50% to $1B.  About $2T in corp bond issues came to market in H1 before volume plummeted to about $550B in Q3.  The bank is expecting a challenging Q4.  The stock was up 90¢, joining in today's rally.

JPMorgan Net Income May Show 10% Decline

J P Morgan Chase & Co (JPM)


stock chart


Dow hit the 10.6K ceiling & then sold off in the last hour.  But it's still up 1.1K this month, not bad considering there was no dramatic news of ACTIONS taken to resolve the European debt mess & the first big earnings report (used for guidance) was dreary.  The VIX, volatility index, fell 2 to 31, but remains elevated.  Earnings reports will begin in earnest & the big 4 banks should be out with in few trading days.  The bulls still must show they are serious about going over 10.6K to sustain the rally.

SPX Volatility Index (^VIX)



Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart


Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!  






Find out what's inside Trend TV  

No comments: