Thursday, October 20, 2011

Markets drift lower on Greek debt worries

Dow dropped 57, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ fell 29.  The Financial Index is pulling back off its recent interim highs. 

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index

Value 168.14 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    -1.29    (-0.8%)

The MLP index gained a fraction in the 361s while the REIT index fell 1 to 210.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were about even.  Oil was flat in a sideways stock market but gold pulled back & has had a rough month as shown below in its chart.

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)

 


DJ REIT INDEXDJR (^DJR)



Click below for the latest market update:




Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.015%

U.S. 2-year

0.270%

U.S. 10-year

2.184%

CLX11.NYM....Crude Oil Nov 11...86.16 ...Up 0.05   (0.1%)

GCV11.CMX...Gold Oct 11.......1,623.80 ...Down 22.20  (1.4%)

Gold Trust (GLD)





Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased 6,000 Last Week

Photo:   Bloomberg

New claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to levels last seen in Apr.  Claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 6K to 403K according to the Labor Dept which compares with estimates of 400K.  The 4-week moving average of claims dropped 6K to 403K, again the lowest level since Apr.  First-time applications fell 25K between the Sep & Oct survey periods, suggesting a step-up in nonfarm employment after payrolls increased 103K last month.  After spiking in mid-Sep, jobless claims appear to have settled near the 400K mark that is usually associated with some improvement in the jobs market.  The number still receiving benefits under regular state programs rose 25K to 3.7M & the number on emergency unemployment benefits fell 49K to 2.97M in the latest week.  6.7M were claiming unemployment benefits during that period under all programs, down 124K from the prior week (probably because their benefits ran out).  This is another going nowhere report..

Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week




Photo:   Yahoo

European leaders may not agree on a 2nd rescue package for Greece until the end of Nov after the European Commission, the EU's executive, had been pushing for the bailout deal to be finalized this weekend.  A draft statement prepared for the summit on Sun says "we look forward to the conclusion of a sustainable and credible new EU-IMF multiannual programme by the end of November."  The sentence is still in brackets, suggesting that the timing & content still under discussions.  Can you spell, "uh-oh?"  A 2nd €109B ($151B) bailout for Greece was tentatively agreed in Jul, but that deal has been reopened as Germany & other countries want banks & other investors to take steeper losses on Greek bonds.  France, the Commission & the ECB oppose deeper cuts, worried that such a move could hurt banks across the continent & undermine confidence in other struggling countries.  The draft statement also suggests that Greece is almost sure to receive the next €8B batch of its first €110B ($152B) bailout.  "We welcome the decision by the Eurogroup on the disbursement of the 6th tranche" of aid money, the statement said (referring to a meeting of eurozone finance ministers scheduled for Fri, 2 days ahead of the summit).  Greek bailout remains a work in progress as Greek protests become violent.

Second Greek Rescue Deal May Still Not Be Enough- AP



The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next 3-6 months climbed 0.2% after a 0.3% gain in Aug & the increase, lowest since a Apr, matched projections.  Momentum remains shaky.  “The LEI is pointing to soft economic conditions through the end of 2011,” Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, said. “The probability of a downturn starting over the next few months remains at about 50 percent.”  5 of the 10 components of the leading index contributed to the increase.  In addition to the interest-rate spread, they include consumer expectations & new orders for manufacturers.  More indications that the recovery is stuck in neutral.

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Increased 0.2% in September


There is not a lot going on the markets but bulls have given up their command.they had in the first 2 weeks of Oct.  The Greek debt mess drones on.  Earnings are not getting a warm reception.  It will take a substantial force to break thru the 10.6K ceiling of the Dow.  The VIX, volatility index, is up another 2 to the 36s, more than double where it was in better times for the stock market. 

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart


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