Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Markets are recovering early losses

Dow dropped 96 (100+ above the lows), decliners over advancers 5-2 but NAZ gained 22.  Bargain hunters also are buying bank stocks after falling sharply in early trading.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 151.19 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   -0.66    (-0.4%)

The Alerian MLP Index sank another 9 to the 322s, nearing the yearly low of 316 in May.  The REIT index fell 2+ to the 191s.  The charts below show the last year as a reminder of how bad this decline is.  Junk bond funds were hit very hard, down 2-5% where a 1-2% retreat is considered substantial.  Treasuries are flattish with yields at or near record lows benefitting on investment from flight to safety money.  Oil fell for a 3rd day amid concern that fuel demand will drop as investors lose confidence in the economies of the US & Europe.  Gold is only treading water.

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)




DJ REIT INDEXDJR (^DJR)



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.243%

U.S. 10-year

1.763%

CLX11.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 11...76.00 ...Down 1.61  (2.1%)

GCV11.CMX...Gold Oct 11......1,652.80...Down 3.20  (0.2%)


Click below for the latest market update:







U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is pictured before testifying at a Joint Economic Committee hearing on the economic outlook, on Capitol Hill in Washington October 4, 2011. REUTERS/Jason Reed
Photo:  Yahoo

Ben Bernanke said the Federal Reserve is prepared to take further steps to help a fragile economic recovery held back by a weak job market & financial stresses in Europe.  "The Committee will continue to closely monitor economic developments and is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in the context of price stability," he said. Given anemic employment growth that has depressed consumer confidence, Bernanke urged lawmakers not to cut spending too quickly in the short term even as they grapple with trimming the budget deficit over the long term because gov belt-tightening was likely to prove a significant drag on the world's largest economy. "An important objective is to avoid fiscal actions that could impede the ongoing economic recovery," he said,  Bernanke said European financial strains posed "ongoing risks" to U.S. economic growth, saying they had already dampened the mood of households & businesses.  A depressed housing sector & tight credit are other factors preventing a more robust expansion, Bernanke said, & he offered little prospect that the labor market would improve soon. "Recent indicators, including new claims for unemployment insurance and surveys of hiring plans, point to the likelihood of more sluggish job growth in the period ahead," he told the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. Stressing that higher inflation earlier in the year had not become ingrained in the economy, Bernanke argued price pressures will remain subdued for the foreseeable future.  The market's reaction was more selling.



  • <p>               High school students chant slogans outside the Greek Parliament during a protest in central Athens, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2011. A string of missed fiscal targets has stoked fears that Greece - weighed under a massive debt load - is headed toward certain default, stalling the global economy's slow recovery from recession. (AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris)
         Greece today
         Photo:   Yahoo

Greece has enough money to pay pensions, salaries & bondholders thru mid-Nov, the finance minister said, on worries that a messy default could bring down European banks & trigger another global recession.  Greece had previously said it would start running out of money in mid-Oct if it didn't get the next €8B ($11B) installment of the €110B rescue package it has been relying on since last year.  But Evangelos Venizelos sought to reassure Greeks & investors that the country can hold on a little longer while its rescue creditors decide whether to give it more loans.  "Until mid-November it is clear there will be no problem," said Venizelos, upon returning from a eurozone finance ministers' meeting in Luxembourg.  Eurozone ministers have indicated that while Greece would get its next batch of loans, that decision would not be made until later this month, after the intl debt inspectors in Athens complete their review of Greece's reforms.  A related problem is European govs hinted that bondholders may be saddled with bigger losses on Greek debt, intensifying market jitters that a 2nd aid package designed might unravel.  This means the Greek drama will drone on for several weeks.


AMR Resumes Pilot Talks, Stock Rout Shows Bankruptcy Concern

Photo:    Bloomberg

American Airlines will resume contract negotiations with pilots, a bellwether work group, after parent AMR shares fell the most since 2003 on concern the company may file for bankruptcy.  This is latest effort to reach an agreement in bargaining that began in 2006.  AMR reiterated yesterday that Chapter 11 protection “is certainly not our goal or our preference.”  “More and more of our pilots are worried about the viability of our company and the bankruptcy potential to affect pensions,” Sam Mayer, an Allied Pilots Association spokesman, said.  Yesterday’s plunge followed a 2nd straight month of higher-than-normal retirements among pilots locking in pension values.  The plunge was aggravated by big picture worries that an economic slowdown will hurt AMR especially hard.  The stock has had an ugly go of it lately, but rallied 28¢ to $2.26 today.

AMR Resumes Pilot Talks Amid Stock Rout

AMR Corporation (AMR)


stock chart


Markets are groping, looking for direction.  Ben was not much help, not that he has many more magic tricks to help an ailing economy.  Apple (AAPL) stock is about even, ahead of its big product announcement for the new iPhone.  If buyers bid up the stock, that enthusiasm should benefit the entire stock market.  But today is followed by tomorrow & markets will need more encouragement to bring out buyers.  The Greek debt mess will be around for weeks (at a minimum), not encouraging, & the US economy seems to be frozen.  Business does not want to expand in a major way.  Instead excess cash is being used for div increases.  That's good but also bad in the sense that investments in the future are limited.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart



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