Dow gained 68, decliners modestly ahead of advancers & NAZ added 8. The MLP index rose 4+ to the 264s & the REIT index fell 1+ to the 337s. Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries dipped with the 10 year yield remaining at 3%. Oil climbed to the 71s (more below) & gold dropped 6 to 1314.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.411039910426789)
Stocks pop to begin the week
Bailout inspectors have returned to Athens as Greece races to comply with the final terms of its rescue program, which ends in Aug. Negotiations resumed, with Greece still facing dozens of measures to address in the next 10 days to remain on track for an agreement next month on the terms of bailout debt repayment after the program ends. Athens is seeking a full return to financing itself on intl bond markets following 8 years of dependence on loans from other eurozone countries & the IMF. But some creditors favor a more gradual approach. Among the economic measures still under discussion are protections for families facing home repossession & an end to sales-tax exemptions in areas affected by the refugee crisis.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said he hopes that the US & China can come to an agreement over the myriad trade disputes between the 2 nations. One reason for that optimism is the close tie between the 2 heads of state. "It's difficult to handicap the outcome, but my hope is the strong personal relationship between Pres Trump & President Xi will facilitate an agreement, just as it seems to possibly be doing relative to North Korea," Ross said. "The president has meticulously honored his campaign promises, and key among them is making our trade relations with China much more fair," he added. Ross has recently returned from China with a cadre of administration officials trying to resolve trade differences. The US has threatened to slap tariffs on steel, aluminum & a slew of other products if it doesn't get what it wants from China & other global partners. China, though, remains the key. "Before landing in China we sent them an extremely detailed list of our needs, and they responded with a similarly detailed but as you can imagine quite different list of their proposals," Ross said. "The gap remains wide." However, he also expressed confidence that the US holds the upper hand. Even if China were to put a retaliatory 25% tariff on the $50B or so of US goods it imports, it would barely make a dent on the US economy, Ross said. In fact, there would even be some benefit as some of the goods the US gets from China would be produced domestically.
Commerce chief Ross: 'Strong personal relationship' between Trump and Xi key to trade talks
China may remove tariffs on US agricultural products, including soybeans, according to reports. The reports said US & Chinese officials are working on a deal that would reprieve China's ZTE from sanctions which prohibit US companies from selling components to the company. In exchange, Beijing would remove tariffs on US soybeans.
China is reportedly close to removing tariffs on agricultural products in exchange for relief for ZTE
OPEC forecast that US drillers will account for most of the growth in oil production this year but warned that the global economic growth picture is clouded by uncertainty, in part due to American trade policy & sanctions. The 14-member oil producer group raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2018 slightly, pointing to strong growth in developed & emerging economies in Q1. It now expects the world to consume 98.85M barrels a day, up 1.65M barrels a day from last year. OPEC anticipates drillers outside its group will pump 59.62M barrels a day this year, 1.72M barrels a day more than last year. US drillers will account for about 89% of that growth, with Canada, Brazil, the UK & Kazakhstan also pumping more. US drillers are producing a record 10.7M barrels a day, according to preliminary weekly data from the Energy Information Administration. The US is quickly approaching top producer Russia, which pumps about 11M barrels daily. OPEC's own production was up slightly in Apr by about 12K barrels a day to 31.9M bpd, according to independent sources. An increase in output from Saudi Arabia was offset by a decline from Venezuela, where production fell by nearly 42K bpd as the country's economic crisis lingers on. The group, along with Russia & several other producers, has been limiting its output since Jan 2017 in order to drain a glut of oil that caused a historic price crash. They have been trying to drive down oil stockpiles in developed countries to the 5-year average. Those stockpiles stood at just 9M barrels above that level in Mar. However, OPEC added a caveat in its latest monthly report, saying inventories are still 258M barrels above levels in Jan 2014, the year oil prices crashed. OPEC will discuss whether the production caps should be adjusted at a meeting next month. The deal to keep 1.8M barrels a day off the market is set to last thru the end of the year. OPEC said recent data in developed countries could point to a weakening global growth trend. It noted that purchase managers indices in major economies for Apr were mostly weak. While growth was expected to taper off somewhat, the data from Europe in particular was softer than anticipated. "Major emerging economies' growth dynamics have thus far counterbalanced this soft spot, and global growth may recover in the remainder of the year due to US fiscal stimulus and a rebound in OECD growth," it said, referring to a group of developed nations. "However, after a period of a considerable growth, uncertainties seem to be on the rise." US trade policy & sanctions are fueling that uncertainty at a time when there are concerns that rising interest rates, especially in the US, could crimp economic growth. It pointed specifically to new sanctions on Russia, tariffs on Chinese goods & steel & aluminum imports, continued trade negotiations with China & NAFTA & Pres Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal last week. "So far the impact on the global economy has been minor and negligible, but the build-up of potentially disruptive concerns has increased," OPEC said.
OPEC raises oil output forecast, warns about global growth uncertainty
Even though the popular averages rose, this was a choppy day for stocks. That reflected news stories which were uneven. Negative market breadth when the market is overbought is worrisome. Intl trade negotiations which are inconclusive along with fallout from the US withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal are very dark clouds making the future for stocks more uncertain. The Dow finished nearer the lows & was unable to crack thru the 25K, signs the market rally is very tired.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Stocks rose as several telecom equipment
makers gained from a Pres Trump tweet that he's working with
Chinese Pres Xi to find a way to get Chinese smartphone maker ZTE
"back into business fast." The Dow had its 8th consecutive gain, marking the blue-chip index's longest winning streak in 6 months. US crude was off 0.11% at $70.78 & gold slipped fractionally to $1319. On
Fri, shares edged higher as geopolitical tensions eased & investors welcomed mild
inflation. The Dow rallied 91 (0.4%) to 24,831, the
S&P 500 added 4 (0.1%) to 2727 & NAZ fell 2 to 7402. The 30-member Dow remains
roughly 6.7% below its last record close, set in late Jan. In Asia, China stocks rose today amid signs of
easing trade tensions between Beijing & DC. The Shanghai
Composite rose 0.3% & Hong Kong's Hang Seng index climbed more than
1%. Japan's Nikkei rose to a 3½ month high with a gain of gain of 0.5%. European markets fell with London's FTSE down 0.3%. Germany's DAX was down 0.5% & France CAC was off 0.2%.
Stocks pop to begin the week
Bailout inspectors have returned to Athens as Greece races to comply with the final terms of its rescue program, which ends in Aug. Negotiations resumed, with Greece still facing dozens of measures to address in the next 10 days to remain on track for an agreement next month on the terms of bailout debt repayment after the program ends. Athens is seeking a full return to financing itself on intl bond markets following 8 years of dependence on loans from other eurozone countries & the IMF. But some creditors favor a more gradual approach. Among the economic measures still under discussion are protections for families facing home repossession & an end to sales-tax exemptions in areas affected by the refugee crisis.
Greece races to meet bailout demands as inspectors return
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said he hopes that the US & China can come to an agreement over the myriad trade disputes between the 2 nations. One reason for that optimism is the close tie between the 2 heads of state. "It's difficult to handicap the outcome, but my hope is the strong personal relationship between Pres Trump & President Xi will facilitate an agreement, just as it seems to possibly be doing relative to North Korea," Ross said. "The president has meticulously honored his campaign promises, and key among them is making our trade relations with China much more fair," he added. Ross has recently returned from China with a cadre of administration officials trying to resolve trade differences. The US has threatened to slap tariffs on steel, aluminum & a slew of other products if it doesn't get what it wants from China & other global partners. China, though, remains the key. "Before landing in China we sent them an extremely detailed list of our needs, and they responded with a similarly detailed but as you can imagine quite different list of their proposals," Ross said. "The gap remains wide." However, he also expressed confidence that the US holds the upper hand. Even if China were to put a retaliatory 25% tariff on the $50B or so of US goods it imports, it would barely make a dent on the US economy, Ross said. In fact, there would even be some benefit as some of the goods the US gets from China would be produced domestically.
Commerce chief Ross: 'Strong personal relationship' between Trump and Xi key to trade talks
China may remove tariffs on US agricultural products, including soybeans, according to reports. The reports said US & Chinese officials are working on a deal that would reprieve China's ZTE from sanctions which prohibit US companies from selling components to the company. In exchange, Beijing would remove tariffs on US soybeans.
China is reportedly close to removing tariffs on agricultural products in exchange for relief for ZTE
OPEC forecast that US drillers will account for most of the growth in oil production this year but warned that the global economic growth picture is clouded by uncertainty, in part due to American trade policy & sanctions. The 14-member oil producer group raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2018 slightly, pointing to strong growth in developed & emerging economies in Q1. It now expects the world to consume 98.85M barrels a day, up 1.65M barrels a day from last year. OPEC anticipates drillers outside its group will pump 59.62M barrels a day this year, 1.72M barrels a day more than last year. US drillers will account for about 89% of that growth, with Canada, Brazil, the UK & Kazakhstan also pumping more. US drillers are producing a record 10.7M barrels a day, according to preliminary weekly data from the Energy Information Administration. The US is quickly approaching top producer Russia, which pumps about 11M barrels daily. OPEC's own production was up slightly in Apr by about 12K barrels a day to 31.9M bpd, according to independent sources. An increase in output from Saudi Arabia was offset by a decline from Venezuela, where production fell by nearly 42K bpd as the country's economic crisis lingers on. The group, along with Russia & several other producers, has been limiting its output since Jan 2017 in order to drain a glut of oil that caused a historic price crash. They have been trying to drive down oil stockpiles in developed countries to the 5-year average. Those stockpiles stood at just 9M barrels above that level in Mar. However, OPEC added a caveat in its latest monthly report, saying inventories are still 258M barrels above levels in Jan 2014, the year oil prices crashed. OPEC will discuss whether the production caps should be adjusted at a meeting next month. The deal to keep 1.8M barrels a day off the market is set to last thru the end of the year. OPEC said recent data in developed countries could point to a weakening global growth trend. It noted that purchase managers indices in major economies for Apr were mostly weak. While growth was expected to taper off somewhat, the data from Europe in particular was softer than anticipated. "Major emerging economies' growth dynamics have thus far counterbalanced this soft spot, and global growth may recover in the remainder of the year due to US fiscal stimulus and a rebound in OECD growth," it said, referring to a group of developed nations. "However, after a period of a considerable growth, uncertainties seem to be on the rise." US trade policy & sanctions are fueling that uncertainty at a time when there are concerns that rising interest rates, especially in the US, could crimp economic growth. It pointed specifically to new sanctions on Russia, tariffs on Chinese goods & steel & aluminum imports, continued trade negotiations with China & NAFTA & Pres Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal last week. "So far the impact on the global economy has been minor and negligible, but the build-up of potentially disruptive concerns has increased," OPEC said.
OPEC raises oil output forecast, warns about global growth uncertainty
Even though the popular averages rose, this was a choppy day for stocks. That reflected news stories which were uneven. Negative market breadth when the market is overbought is worrisome. Intl trade negotiations which are inconclusive along with fallout from the US withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal are very dark clouds making the future for stocks more uncertain. The Dow finished nearer the lows & was unable to crack thru the 25K, signs the market rally is very tired.
Dow Jones Industrials
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