Dow was up 94 (but more than 100 below session highs), advancers still ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ went up 55. The MLP index was up a fraction to the 255s & the REIT index went up 3+ to the 334s. Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries fluctuated. Oil inched up pennies in the 69s (above 70 earlier today) & gold remained flat at 1314
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.24479643005121965)
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/COP?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Supply is tight, prices are soaring & mortgage rates are rising. That shouldn't exactly add up to a happy housing market, & yet, it does. Consumer confidence in housing jumped to the highest level on record in Apr, according to a monthly sentiment index from Fannie Mae. Of the its 6 components, only the share of those who think it's a good time to buy fell. No surprise there, given the high competition in most of the nation's neighborhoods. The share of those who think it's a good time to sell & those who think prices will continue to rise jumped the most. In addition, more consumers think their incomes will rise over the next year & fewer think they will lose their jobs. Consumer attitudes remain resilient going into the spring/summer home buying season," Fannie Mae said. "However, the upward trend in the good-time-to-sell share seen since last spring has done little to release more for-sale inventory. The tightest supply in decades, combined with rising mortgage rates from historically low levels, will likely remain a hurdle for mobility and a persistent headwind for home sales." Home prices made their biggest jump in 4 years in Mar, up 7% compared with Mar 2017, according to CoreLogic, which also calculated that ½ of the nation's 50 largest metro markets are now considered overvalued. That is based on prices being at least 10% higher than the long-term sustainable average. While more Americans are less concerned about losing their jobs, just 18% said their household income is significantly higher than it was a year ago. While that is a slight gain compared with Mar, it doesn't exactly mean potential buyers are swimming in cash. Home prices are rising far faster than incomes. Demand, however, continues to rise as the largest generation, millennials, moves solidly into the homebuying years. While supply is lowest on the low end of the market, a growing number of first-time buyers are buying move-up homes, instead of entry-level homes. That is because millennials waited longer, following the recession, to become homebuyers, meaning they are likely in higher-paying jobs than previous generations of first-time buyers. Still, if mortgage rates continue to rise, fewer millennials will be able to afford homeownership & will keep renting or living with family. Millennial homeownership fell in Q1, after rising solidly during all of 2017, according to the Census. High prices are clearly taking their toll.
Housing confidence hits record high as prices skyrocket
The Federal Reserve said consumer credit in Mar grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.6% ($11.6B) to mark the slowest gain since Sep. The forecast was for a $15.6B increase. The Feb gain was revised higher to show a $13.6B advance instead of a previously reported $10.6B gain. Nonrevolving credit such as student & auto loans grew 6%, the 3rd straight month of growth around that level. Revolving credit, namely credit cards, fell 3%, marking the 2nd drop in a row. With rising unemployment & erratic but growing gains in income, consumer credit should continue to increase. But consumer credit growth, north of 7% in 2014 & 2015, has slowed to a rate of 4.25% in Q1.
Pres Trump tweeted that he'll announce whether the US will remain in the Iran nuclear accord tomorrow. Germany, France & the UK have lobbied Trump & his top aides to remain in the deal, which the pres has frequently criticized. Trump has strongly hinted that he will withdraw from the agreement, & French Pres Macron said after meeting with Trump last month that he expects the US to exit the deal. UK Foreign Minister Boris Johnson is in DC this week to make a last-ditch argument to persuade Trump to remain in the accord, arguing that it is flawed but can be improved.
Trump to Announce Iran Decision Tuesday
Trader optimism is fading & nervousness is taking over their emotions. Selling in the last hour took away some of the earlier gains. The intl scene has become the center of attention & that will probably continue all week. That has been the case for weeks & the Dow continues to stay close to 24K.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Oil giant ConocoPhillips (COP) is pressing for control
of Venezuela's offshore operations in the Caribbean to recoup $2B
in payment from a decade-old dispute. The company is asking a court in the Dutch
Antilles for control of facilities belonging to Venezuela's state-run
oil firm PDVSA. PDVSA relies heavily on facilities on the islands
of Curacao, Bonaire & St. Eustatius used to refine & store
Venezuela's heavy crude before shipment to the US & Asia. The
legal action follows a recent decision by an intl arbitration
panel that Venezuela in 2007 illegally expropriated joint venture
operations with COP. The stock lost 9¢.
If you would like to learn more about COP, click on this link:club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/COP?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
ConocoPhillips moves to take key Venezuelan oil operations
Supply is tight, prices are soaring & mortgage rates are rising. That shouldn't exactly add up to a happy housing market, & yet, it does. Consumer confidence in housing jumped to the highest level on record in Apr, according to a monthly sentiment index from Fannie Mae. Of the its 6 components, only the share of those who think it's a good time to buy fell. No surprise there, given the high competition in most of the nation's neighborhoods. The share of those who think it's a good time to sell & those who think prices will continue to rise jumped the most. In addition, more consumers think their incomes will rise over the next year & fewer think they will lose their jobs. Consumer attitudes remain resilient going into the spring/summer home buying season," Fannie Mae said. "However, the upward trend in the good-time-to-sell share seen since last spring has done little to release more for-sale inventory. The tightest supply in decades, combined with rising mortgage rates from historically low levels, will likely remain a hurdle for mobility and a persistent headwind for home sales." Home prices made their biggest jump in 4 years in Mar, up 7% compared with Mar 2017, according to CoreLogic, which also calculated that ½ of the nation's 50 largest metro markets are now considered overvalued. That is based on prices being at least 10% higher than the long-term sustainable average. While more Americans are less concerned about losing their jobs, just 18% said their household income is significantly higher than it was a year ago. While that is a slight gain compared with Mar, it doesn't exactly mean potential buyers are swimming in cash. Home prices are rising far faster than incomes. Demand, however, continues to rise as the largest generation, millennials, moves solidly into the homebuying years. While supply is lowest on the low end of the market, a growing number of first-time buyers are buying move-up homes, instead of entry-level homes. That is because millennials waited longer, following the recession, to become homebuyers, meaning they are likely in higher-paying jobs than previous generations of first-time buyers. Still, if mortgage rates continue to rise, fewer millennials will be able to afford homeownership & will keep renting or living with family. Millennial homeownership fell in Q1, after rising solidly during all of 2017, according to the Census. High prices are clearly taking their toll.
Housing confidence hits record high as prices skyrocket
The Federal Reserve said consumer credit in Mar grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.6% ($11.6B) to mark the slowest gain since Sep. The forecast was for a $15.6B increase. The Feb gain was revised higher to show a $13.6B advance instead of a previously reported $10.6B gain. Nonrevolving credit such as student & auto loans grew 6%, the 3rd straight month of growth around that level. Revolving credit, namely credit cards, fell 3%, marking the 2nd drop in a row. With rising unemployment & erratic but growing gains in income, consumer credit should continue to increase. But consumer credit growth, north of 7% in 2014 & 2015, has slowed to a rate of 4.25% in Q1.
Consumer credit growth in March slowest in six months as credit-card use drops
Pres Trump tweeted that he'll announce whether the US will remain in the Iran nuclear accord tomorrow. Germany, France & the UK have lobbied Trump & his top aides to remain in the deal, which the pres has frequently criticized. Trump has strongly hinted that he will withdraw from the agreement, & French Pres Macron said after meeting with Trump last month that he expects the US to exit the deal. UK Foreign Minister Boris Johnson is in DC this week to make a last-ditch argument to persuade Trump to remain in the accord, arguing that it is flawed but can be improved.
Trump to Announce Iran Decision Tuesday
Trader optimism is fading & nervousness is taking over their emotions. Selling in the last hour took away some of the earlier gains. The intl scene has become the center of attention & that will probably continue all week. That has been the case for weeks & the Dow continues to stay close to 24K.
Dow Jones Industrials
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