Tuesday, May 1, 2018

Markets are weak ahead of Fed meeting

Dow dropped 253, decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ was off only 2.  The MLP index crawled higher in the 258s & the REIT index fell 1 to the 229s.  Junk bond funds hardly budged & Treasuries were sold, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury up to 2.97%.  Oil drifted below 68 & gold tumbled 13 to 1306.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=F

Crude Oil67.66
  -0.91-1.3%

GC=F

Gold  1,307.10
-12.10-0.9%







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Stocks fell, failing to get any positive momentum from the US decision to postpone adding steel & aluminum tariffs on Canada, the EU & Mexico, & also offer permanent exemptions for several other allies.  The US announced in Mar a 25% tariff on imported steel & a 10% tariff on aluminum, but the White House said some nations would not be subject to the new levies.  Trump had faced a self-imposed midnight deadline to approve permanent exemptions.  Meanwhile, it will be another big day for earnings. Apple (AAPL), a Dow & NAZ stock, will be the star of the earnings parade when the iPhone maker reports fiscal Q2 results after the closing bell.  In the morning, numerous health care companies are reporting.  More than ½ the S&P 500 companies have reported Jan-Mar results.  So far earnings & revenue are coming in well ahead of expectations.  The Fed kicks off its 2-day meeting today.

Stocks moving lower after tariff delay

Pfizer (PFE), a Dow stock, quarterly profit topped forecasts, driven by stronger-than-expected sales of pneumonia vaccine Prevnar.  The largest US drugmaker said Prevnar recorded sales of $1.38B in Q1.  Analysts on had expected sales of $1.37B.  EPS was 59¢, up from 51¢ a year earlier.  Excluding one-time items, EPS was 77¢, topping estimates of 74¢.  Total revenue rose 1% to $12.91B.  Analysts had expected $13.13B.  The stock fell 1.61 (4%).
If you would like to learn more about PFE, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PFE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Pfizer tops profit estimates, driven by Prevnar sales

France said it agreed that there was an overcapacity problem in steel & aluminum, but it could only discuss the matter with the US when it was assured that the EU would be permanently excluded from unilateral tariff rises.  "We agree that there is a problem of overcapacity in steel and aluminum. We are ready to work with the USA and other partners to deal with those issues, and to develop fast and appropriate solutions," a joint statement from the finance & foreign ministries said after the US delayed a decision on imposing tariffs until Jun 1.  "But we can only do so serenely when we are certain that we will be excluded from a unilateral increase in tariffs on a permanent basis."

France says ready to discuss metals overcapacity with U.S. once exempted from tariff hikes


Merck (MRK), another Dow stock, Q1 revenue rose 6%, driven by a huge jump in sales of cancer blockbuster Keytruda, but a $1.4B charge for starting a research partnership with Japanese drugmaker Eisai dragged down profits by more than ½.  Despite that deal, the company was peppered about plans for major acquisitions or other strategies to diversify, given that Keytruda now accounts for about 15% of total revenue.  MRK already has approvals for treating 7 tumor types with Keytruda, which has grabbed the lead in the white-hot field of immuno-oncology, or cancer drugs that work by removing a sort-of invisibility cloak so immune system cells can better spot & attack cancerous cells.  US regulatory approvals are pending for additional uses & recent study data show that Keytruda plus chemotherapy cut risk of death in half compared with just chemotherapy in advanced lung cancer.  Meanwhile, the company is running about 750 patients studies of Keytruda alone or in combination with other drugs.  Execs said they have plenty of money to do a deal of any size, with about $20B of cash on hand & room to borrow more, but they're not necessarily looking for a mega-deal.  They also stressed that the animal health business, which analysts have been pressing it to divest, provides both diversification & synergies with research in the human health division.  "I am very optimistic about our near and long-term growth trajectory," CEO Ken Frazier said.  The maker of vaccines & diabetes drug Januvia reported EPS of 27¢, down from 56¢ a year earlier.  EPS, adjusted for one-time costs, came to $1.05, 6¢ better than the projection.  Total revenue of $10.04B was just shy of the $10.12B forecast.  Prescription drug sales rose 4% to $8.92B & veterinary medicine sales jumped 13% to $1.07B.  The company tweaked its 2018 financial forecast.  It now expects full-year EPS of $4.16-4.28, with revenue of $41.8-43B.  The stock lost 1.06.
If you would like to learn more about PFE, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PFE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Merck posts strong first-quarter profit, but revenue light


Stocks are weak today.  However hopes are high for the AAPL earnings report after the close, keeping demand for tech stocks strong.  The tariff discussions drone on & little will be accomplished in the near term.  The eyes of traders will be watching the Fed meeting, although no great surprises are expected.  The Dow dipped below 24K with today's sell-off, where it has been for 3 months (shown below).

Dow Jones Industrials








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