Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Mixed markets after Trump quits Iran nuclear pact

Dow fell only 2, advancers & decliners were about even & NAZ inched up 1.  The MLP index was up 1+ to the 257s & the REIT index continued strong, rising 1+ to the 336s.  Junk bond funds hardly budged & Treasuries were off slightly, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury up to 2.97% (2 basis points).  Oil remained down 1 to the 69s & gold added a mere 2 to 1216.

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Stocks fluctuated after Pres Trump announced that the US would  pull out of the Iran deal championed by his predecessor, Pres Obama.  According to Trump, this deal allowed Iran to continue developing nuclear weapons & he called the country the “leading state sponsor of terror.”  During his speech, Trump added that, "we will be reinstating the highest level of sanctions."  Stocks were lower immediately before Trump’s announcement with the Dow down by about 60.  They turned mixed in the immediate aftermath of Trump's comments, with the Dow swinging between gains & losses before settling in negative territory.  Stocks rose yesterday but finished well below their session highs after Trump tweeted that he would make an announcement today on the Iran nuclear deal.  US crude oil broke thru the $70 a barrel mark yesterday, for  the first time since 2014, but the commodity fell by over 4% today following unconfirmed reports that the US won't immediately withdraw from Iran deal.  Oil trimmed its losses but was still lower after the announcement.  Iran is a major oil supplier & the sanctions could impact the flow of oil out of the country.

Dow declines as Trump exits Iran deal


Pres Trump pulled the US out of the Iranian nuclear deal despite warnings that it could ratchet up tensions in the volatile region & make it easier for the mad Mullahs to develop nuclear weapons.  “The Iranian regime is the leading state sponsors of terror,” Trump said, accusing the regime of supporting terrorists throughout the region.  “In 2015 the previous administration joined with other nations in a deal on Iran’s nuclear program. The theory was supposed to protect the U.S. and its allies from the lunacy of an Iranian nuclear bomb,” he said.  “The fact is this was a horrible, one-sided deal that should never, never have been made,” he added.  “The Iran deal is defective at its core. If we do nothing, we’ll know exactly what will happen. There for, I am announcing today that the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.”  He also said he would institute “the highest level of economic sanctions.”  Trump told French Pres Macron earlier today that he would announce the withdrawal & reinstate all sanctions it had waived as part of the 2015 nuclear accord & impose additional economic penalties.  Talks to keep the accord intact collapsed over Trump's insistence that sharp limits be kept on Iran’s nuclear fuel production after 2030.

Trump says U.S. is withdrawing from Iran nuclear deal


IBM (IBM), a Dow stock,, which has long been criticized for its tepid entrance into the cloud business, is expanding its partnership with Red Hat (RHT), a multinational software company, in hopes of better combining containers & hybrid cloud platforms.  “IBM and Red Hat are combining forces to really enable enterprises to take advantage of the move to hybrid cloud, really leveraging everything from private cloud to public cloud,” IBM Research senior VP Arvind Krishna said.  With the partnership, both companies said IBM Cloud Private can deploy containers across Red Hat, which can then be used with IBM's cloud to build artificial intelligence & blockchain.  “I would call it an industry game changer,” Krishna said.  IBM stock fell 22¢ & RHT stock dropped 16¢.
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IBM bets big on ‘industry game changer’


North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited the Chinese city of Dalian this week & met Pres Xi Jinping, the official Xinhua news agency said.  During his visit yesterday & today, Kim told Xi he hoped relevant parties would take "phased" & "synchronised" measures to realise denuclearisation & lasting peace on the Korean peninsula.  Xi hosted a banquet & told Kim of his support for North Korea's strategic shift towards economic development, Xinhua added.  The visit, part of a flurry of diplomatic engagement that has dramatically eased tension on the Korean peninsula, follows Kim's recent historic summit with South Korean counterpart Moon Jae-in & precedes a planned meet with Pres Trump.  It also followed Kim's dramatic train journey to Beijing in Mar, his fist known trip abroad since assuming power in 2011.

North Korean leader Kim visits China, meets Xi


The number of job openings in the US surged in Mar to a record 6.55M from 6.1M, showing companies are still eager to add workers with the economy growing soundly almost 9 years after the last recession.  Professional & white-collar job openings climbed 112K.  Postings for construction jobs rose 68K & openings for transportation & warehousing work increased 37K.  About 5.4M people were hired & 5.3M lost their jobs in Mar, the Labor Dept reported.  The share of people who left jobs on their own, known as the quits rate, was 2.5% among private-sector employees.  That matches a post-recession high, 2.3% for all workers.  People quit their jobs when they are more confident of finding a better one, typically a sign of a very strong labor market.  The number of unemployed Americans per job opening fell to a record low of 1.01.  In other words, there’s only one person without a job for each job available in the US.  The rate of unemployed workers to job openings peaked at 6.7 at the end of the last recession.  Also, companies only hired 5.4M workers in Mar even as they advertised 6.55M openings, noted Moody’'s Analytics.  That suggests firms are struggling to find qualified workers or that they don't feel a pressing need to fill open positions.  The economy is still adding plenty of new jobs.  In Apr, the US created a net 164K jobs & the unemployment rate dropped below 4% for the first time since 2000.  With jobs plentiful, more Americans are entering or reentering the workforce & that's helping to extend one of the longest expansions in US history.

U.S. job openings surged to reach a new record in March


The stock market took the withdrawal from the nuclear deal with a sense of calm.  There was a little selling, taking the Dow down 100.  The buyers returned to trim the loss.  That trading was based on the gut reaction.  Longer term effects are not clear.  Euro countries may continue trading with Iran.  As noted above, there is plenty of intl news.  Additionally, economic data in the US remains strong.  Overnight, analysts will digest what Trump's decision means & Asian markets will give the first clues.  Meanwhile the Dow does not get far away from 24K.

Dow Jones Industrials









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