Monday, July 8, 2019

Markets dragged lower as investors worry about a rate cut

Dow dropped 113, decliners over advancers about 2-1 & NAZ fell 60.  The MLP index slid back fractionally to the 254s & the REIT index was steady in the 392s.  Junk bond funds were sold & Treasuries rose in price.  Oil climbed into the 58s & gold slid back 1 to 1399 after topping 1400 briefly (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil58.10
+0.59+1.0%

GC=FGold   1,403.60
+3.50+0.3%






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Stocks traded lower to start the week following last week's better-than-expected jobs report.  The strong report dimmed optimism that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon.  Stocks slipped on Fri, although gained for the week, including setting new highs on Wed before the Jul 4 holiday.  In Asia Today, China's Shanghai dropped 2.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.5% & Japan's Nikkei was off 0.9%.  In Europe,  London's FTSE was down slid lower, Germany's DAX was off by 0.4% & France's CAC also slipped 0.3%.  US stocks closed lower on Fri, well off the worst levels of the session, after the better than expected monthly non-farm jobs report for Jun.

US stocks start week lower as rate cut hopes fade

Oil futures flipped between small gains & losses to kick off a new week of trading after prices suffered their first weekly loss in 3 thru last Fri as energy-demand worries persist.  Aug West Texas Intermediate crude  was recently down 4¢ to $57.47 a barrel after the contract lost 1.6% for last week.  Intl benchmark Sep Brent edged 2¢ lower to $64.21 a barrel after Brent declined 0.8% for last week.  Demand essentially took over supply issues in recent sessions.  Earlier last week, OPEC & allied producers agreed to extend their production-cut agreement thru Mar 2020, in a largely expected move.  The OPEC decision came as officials there keep close tabs on the risk to demand from global trade tiffs and as tensions percolate between Iran & the West.  Iran remains open to diplomacy to save its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, but has “no hope” in the intl community, the country's Foreign Ministry spokesman said, as his nation over the weekend broke the limit the agreement put on its enrichment of uranium.

Oil struggles for direction as worrisome demand picture persists

Gold futures traded modestly higher, pushing back above $1400 an ounce, as traders continue to weigh the scope for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following last week's stronger-than-expected round of Jun jobs data.  Gold for Aug rose $7.70 (0.5%) to $1407 an ounce.  Frid's decline followed the jobs data, leaving the yellow metal negative for the week.  The upbeat employment picture saw traders scale back expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, sharply reducing bets on a ½-point cut when policy makers meet at the end of the month.  A ¼-point reduction, however, remains widely expected.  Growing expectations for Fed rate cuts have been credited with lifting gold, which is up 9.8% so far this year & hit a 6-year high last month.   Lower rates are seen as supportive for the metal, which offers no yield, as they cut the opportunity cost of holding the metal. 
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to provide his annual midyear update to lawmakers in a pair of hearings on Wed & Thurs that will be closely watched for further clues to policy makers’ thinking.

Gold bounces back above $1,400 an ounce as traders await this week’s Powell testimony

Procter & Gamble (PG), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, is shaking up the way it innovates in a quest for growth.  In order to break into the household insecticide market, the company used smaller teams in order to make quicker decisions & began selling the product online so it could react more quickly to consumer feedback.  The consumer products company's Zevo, includes a line of bug sprays & indoor traps that are harmless to children & pets.  The launch is part of its effort to develop new products that will reach the commercial success of its Tide detergent & Gillette razors.  In addition to bug spray, the Zevo brand offers an ultraviolet light box that attracts & traps insects with a sticky cartridge.  The product was sold to P&G in 2017 by 2 entrepreneurs.  The pest control industry, which includes topical, household & outdoor products, is a $1.3B industry that has grown 6% in the past 4 years.  While breaking into the pesticide market will be challenging, the Zevo line will attempt to distinguish itself by being kid & animal-friendly, while competitors require a warning label for harmful chemicals.  P&G will also need to gain a bigger foothold at home-improvement retailers where many consumers tend to buy these products.  The stock went up 82¢.
If you would like to learn more about PG, click on this link
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PG?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

P&G looks to kid-safe bug spray in a quest to boost sales growth

This looks like a less than exciting summer day for stocks.  There is no dramatic news & traders are rethinking their thoughts about a rate cut by the Fed at the end of Jul.  However stock averages remain in record territory.

Dow Jones Industrials








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