Monday, July 15, 2019

Markets under pessure as earnings season begins

Dow went up 27, decliners over advancers about 5-4 & NAZ added 14.  The MLP index was fractionally lower into the 257s & the REIT index was little changed in the 391s (still near record highs).  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries went up in price.  Oil fell to the 59s & gold rose 3 to 1415 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)



White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the US economy is very strong -- just look at the data.  “I grow weary as I read these articles, at some of our critics ... some of whom appear to be running for higher office, and they are painting a picture of an economy deep into recession. And we are in a strong prosperity boom and every data point shows that. And when we go into the distribution of those economic benefits it is precisely the bottom half, in some cases the lowest 10 percent, that have actually done the very best in this economy,” he explained.  US employers added 224K jobs in Jun & average hourly earnings rose by 6¢ to $27.90.  Kudlow added that the US economy is on a 3% growth path for 2019 & “profits will outperform the usual doom and gloom.”

KUDLOW RIPS DOOM AND GLOOM CRITICS: US ECONOMY EXPERIENCING 'STRONG PROSPERITY BOOM'


Gold futures edged higher, settling at their highest in almost 2 weeks as prices extended recent gains scored on the back of expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut at the end of the month.  Gold for Aug delivery added $1.30 to settle at $1413 an ounce, the highest most-active contract settlement since Jul 3, which saw a finish at $1420 (the highest since May 2013).  Gold logged a 0.9% rise last week.  Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in testimony before House & Senate lawmakers over 2 days, offered no pushback to market expectations for a rate move when policy makers meet Jul 30-31.  Economic data released tonday showed that the NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey’s main index rebounded 12.9 points to 4.3 in Jul.  The Fed's Beige Book, a periodic examination of the US economy, will be released Wed.  Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak throughout this week, as well.  The $ weakened last week amid the Fed's dovish outlook.  A weaker $ can be a positive for commodities priced in the unit, making them cheaper to users of other currencies.  China's GDP rose 6.2% in Q2 from a year earlier, indicating the continuing trade war has left a massive dent in the economic growth of the country.  Earnings season is also a key focus for the gold market.

Gold prices settle at nearly two-week peak

Oil futures settled lower, giving back a portion of last week's sizable gains, as production in the Gulf of Mexico began a post-storm recovery.  Aug West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 63¢ (1.1%) to settle at $59.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, pulling back after finishing last week with a 4.7% gain.  WTI's recent trade above $60 had been seen as a bullish sign for the asset, which has recently been in an upward trend, on the back of a pause in tensions between the US & China on tariffs & an agreement to keep production capped until Mar of 2020 by OPEC & other major producers, including Russia.  Meanwhile, intl benchmark Sep Brent lost 24¢ (0.4%) to $66.48 a barrel after gaining 3.9% last week.

Oil prices end lower after last week’s gains as Gulf storm threat passes


This would have been a good day to take a long nap during the trading session.  Nothing was decided.  But earnings season begins & there is a lot fo nervousness going into it.  The hoped for rate cut by the Fed is still 2 weeks away, so traders are biting their fingernails.  As has been the case while stock averages were making record highs recently, demand for gold & Treasuries has been strong.  Negative thinking continues to be strong.

Dow Jones Industrials








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