Monday, July 8, 2019

Markets fall on reduced prospects for a Fed rate cut

Dow lost 115, decliners over advancers almost 2-1 & NAZ declined 63.  The MLP index fell 1 to the 254s (extending its longer term sideways trend) & the REIT index was fractionally higher to the 393s (near its recent record).  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries continued to be purchased, bringing higher prices.  Oil was off slightly in the 57s & gold pulled back 3 to 1396.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)



Pres Trump said he's preparing an exec order declaring a “favored nations clause” for drug prices, where the US will pay no more than the country with the lowest prescription drug prices.  “As you know for years and years other nations pay less for drugs than we do,” Trump said.  “We’re working on a favored nations clause, where we pay whatever the lowest nation’s price is.  Why should other nations like Canada why should other nations pay less than us? ”  The Trump administration & Dems in Congress are both trying to bring more transparency to drug prices &, ultimately, lower costs for consumers.  The Trump administration is trying to shed more light on the health-care industry's opaque pricing practices by requiring Big Pharma to include drug prices in TV ads starting this month.  It proposed new rules in Jan that would cut out the middlemen & force drugmakers to pass drug rebates directly to consumers.  The pres also issued an exec order last month requiring hospitals & insurers to disclose negotiated rates for services, as well as provide patients with out-of-pocket costs before their procedures.  House Dems have proposed letting the federal gov negotiate prices with drugmakers directly, like other countries.  The Medicare program cannot negotiate drug prices under current law.  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's latest draft of legislation allowing Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices would also apply those discounts to private health plans across the US   However, opposition is strong among Reps who say they want prices negotiated in a free market.  It's unclear how the administration could set & enforce drug prices.  A similar idea Trump announced last year has already faced skepticism.  Under the proposal, Medicare would be allowed to create an “international pricing index” to bring drug prices in line with what other nations pay.

Trump says administration preparing an executive order on drug prices

Soybean demand in China appears to be surprisingly robust despite the widespread culling of pigs due to African swine fever. That may be indicating that farmers are switching from food waste to manufactured feed, which could mean better-than-expected demand will persist.  The Chinese use of soybeans is an important metric for the country's trade relationships.  Since China is the world's top buyer of the oilseeds, it could give some support to American exports as shipments for the current marketing year may be on pace to top US gov forecasts.  China's sustained demand for soybeans has been called into question not just by trade war tensions but also by a raging outbreak of African swine fever, which has forced farmers to cull a significant percentage of their pigs.  Nevertheless, China's need for the feed material seems to be defying expectations.

China’s soybean demand is ‘surprisingly’ strong despite continued swine fever outbreak

Consumer borrowing expanded at a solid pace in May, according to the Federal Reserve.  Total consumer credit increased $17.1B after an almost identical gain in the prior month.  That's an annual growth rate of 5%.  The forecast called for a $17B gainRevolving credit, like credit cards, rose 8.2% just a bit above the 7.9% gain in Apr.  Revolving debt had looked weaker at the start of the year & actually declined in Dec & Mar.  Non-revolving credit, typically auto & student loans, rose 3.9% in the month after a 4.2% rise in the prior month.  The non-revolving sector is not as volatile as the credit card sector.  Consumers are the lone bright spot in the economy outlook, as business investment & manufacturing have been looking weaker.  So, the continued growth in credit is seen as a positive sign for growth in coming months.  For now, strong job growth, as seen in Jun, is supporting higher incomes which has led to more spending.  And, at least so far, credit growth has not raised any red flags for federal regulators.  Household borrowing “remains modest relative to income, & the debt growth is concentrated among borrowers with high credit scores, the Fed said, in a report to Congress on economic trends over the last 6 months.

U.S. consumer credit expands at solid pace in May for second straight month

With the US women's national soccer team defeating the Netherlands 2-0 yerterday to take the 2019 Women's World Cup, Nike (NKE), a Dow stock, is also winning, with jerseys selling out on its website & buzz around its latest ad campaign taking over the internet.  The brand sponsored 14 of the 2 dozen teams playing in the tournament this year, including 3 that made it to the final 4.  One of those is team USA.  Professional soccer players make up NKE's 2nd-largest group of sponsored female athletes, behind track & field.  A few hours ago, a special version dropped by NKE last night of the women's jersey with 4 stars — with each star representing a World Cup win for the women's team: once in 1991, 1999, 2015 & this year — had already sold out in many sizes for women, men & kids.  CEO Mark Parker said last month that the USA women's home jersey, in the midst of the tournament, had already become the top-selling soccer jersey, for both men & women, ever sold on its website in one season.  Its jersey sales have surged 200% compared with the last tournament held 4 years ago & sales of women's apparel related to the tournament are up more than 150% compared with 2015.  “To start the tournament nearly two-thirds of the teams wore Nike kits and half the players wore our boots,” Parker said in late Jun.  “The exposure is driving outstanding sell-through in kits, high performance bras and lifestyle extensions.”  The stock rose 1.66.
If you would like to learn more about NKE, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/NKE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Nike wins big as the US women’s soccer team takes the World Cup

Stocks were sold at the start of trading & that sentiment did not change during the day.  However there was a little buying in the last hour of trading.  Too  many investors have become addicted to low interest rates & they want to see a rate cut later this month.  In a couple of days chairman Powell will give his latest thoughts on interest rates.  Trade issues are more important in evaluating the economy & those talks remain stuck in the mud.

Dow Jones Industrials








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