Monday, July 29, 2019

Markets mixed before US-China trade talks resume

Dow went up 28, advancers & decliners were even & NAZ pulled back 36 (but above session lows).  The MLP index fell 3+ to 250 & the REIT index gained 1+ to the 387s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were bid higher.  Oil rose in the 56s & gold added 7 to 1427 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)



Drilling rig owners & others who lease equipment to US energy producers are forecasting a slowdown in activity during H2 as natural-gas prices plumb lows & exploration-&-production companies exhaust their budgets.  The number of rigs drilling in the US has declined by about 10% over the last year, to 946 last week, according to oil-field-services firm Baker Hughes, & big drilling contractors are telling investors to expect more to be idled in the coming months.

Rig Owners Forecast Further Drilling Decline


Gold futures settled slightly higher as a key midweek policy decision by the Federal Reserve loomed.  Aug gold added $1.10 to end at $1420 an ounce, after the metal shed 0.5% last week based on the settlement for the most-active.  It was the metal's first weekly loss in the past 3 weeks.  The rate-setting FOMC is widely expected to cut rates by at least 25 basis points at the conclusion of its 2-day policy gathering on Wed, even as recent data showed that the US economy grew at a healthy annualized pace of 2.1% in Q2, higher than the 1.9% pace forecast.  Commodity experts will look to the Fed's communications after its policy decision to help determine how assets, including gold, will trade.  Policy makers are aiming to dull the impact of a trade clashes between the US & China & signs of anemic growth in other parts of the globe.  The yellow metal has benefited from hope that the FOMC will reduce benchmark borrowing costs & signal a willingness to do what it takes to sustain US economic expansion in a record-setting 11th year of expansion.  Lower rates & uncertainty about economic health has been a key ingredient for higher prices for precious commodities.  Some doubts about a China-US resolution on trade also has factored into gold buying. US-China trade talks are set to resume, with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin & Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer both arriving in Shanghai, marking the first formal tariff talks since May when Pres Trump & Chinese leader Xi Jinping met in Japan.

Gold ends marginally higher ahead of kickoff of Fed policy gathering


Pfizer (PFE), a Dow stock & the world’s largest drugmaker, plans to divest its off-patent drug business & combine it with generic-drug maker Mylan (MYL).  Under the agreement, which is structured as an all-stock deal, each Mylan share would be converted into one share of the new company.  PFE shareholders would own 57% of the combined new company & MYL shareholders would own 43%.  The combined company, which will sell MYL's EpiPen & PFE's Viagra, will be domiciled in the US.  The deal will be structured in what’s known as a reverse Morris trust, with PFE's Upjohn business divested & then combined with MYL.  The combined company could draw annual sales of more than $20M.  Mylan reported 2018 sales of $11.4B & while PFE hasn't broken out full-year numbers for its China-based Upjohn unit, its Q1 sales were just over $3B.  PFE's total 2018 revenue was $53.6B.  PFE stock retreated 1.65 (4%) & MYL rose 2.32 (13%).
If you want to learn more about PFE click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PFE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

If you want to learn more about MYL click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MYL?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Pfizer will combine its off-patent drug business with Mylan

Oil futures ended higher, with analysts tying support to the planned resumption of trade talks between the US & China as well as expectations the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut when it concludes its policy meeting later this week.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Sep delivery rose 67¢ (1.2%), to close at $56.87 a barrel, while Oct Brent crude , the global benchmark, rose 15¢ to $63.62 a barrel.  Last week, both US benchmark WTI & Brent saw weekly rises of around 1.5%.  Oil has struggled to rally convincingly despite a string of 6 weekly declines in US inventories & rising geopolitical tensions between Iran & other countries, notably the US & Britain in the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil transport, with around 1/3 of global seaborne oil trade passing through the waterway.  The US's decision last May to pull out of a 2015 Iran nuclear deal set the stage for increased animosities in the region.  The UK sent a warship to escort its vessels in the area & warned Tehran that it must release a British-flagged vessel seized this month.  Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's policy decision, which is expected to deliver a qtr-point interest-rate cut on Wed, also could be a key inflection point for global markets, as central banks attempt to curtail a global slowdown that could impinge upon energy consumption.  Formal negotiations between China & the US, which were set to get under way tomorrow in Shanghai, also were being watched for signs of progress, which could help support global economic expansion.  Tensions between the superpowers have underpinned concerns about crude appetite.

Oil lifted as U.S. and China prepare to resume trade talks


This was a quiet day for trading in the stock market.  The potential rate cut by the Fed on Wed is on everybody's minds.  At the same time, US-China trade talks are resuming.  Those 2 critical events will drive stocks this week.  Meanwhile the stock market is have another outstanding year (shown below).  The Dow is up about 4K YTD & that includes 600 in Jul.

Dow Jones Industrials








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