Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Mixed markets as investors wait for Powell's testimony

Dow lost 22, decliners modestly ahead of advancers & NAZ gained 43.  The MLP index was a little lower in the 253s & the REIT index added 1+ to the 355s.  Junk bond funds hardly budged & Treasuries were weak.  Oil went higher in the 57s (more below) & gold ended flattish in at 1399.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)



Top US trade officials spoke with their Chinese counterparts as The US & Beijing work to iron out a trade deal.  Trade Ambassador Robert Lighthizer & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin spoke to Chinese Vice Premier Liu He & Commerce Minister Zhong Shan “to continue negotiations aimed at resolving the outstanding trade disputes” between the 2 largest economies, according to a US official.  The official said “both sides will continue these talks as appropriate.”  The call continues a fresh round of engagement between the US & China as they try to avoid widening a damaging trade war.  Late last month, Pres Trump & Chinese Pre Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Japan & agreed not to levy new tariffs.  Trump has pushed for Beijing to buy more American goods & address intellectual property theft.  They seek to scrap tariffs slapped on $250B & $110B in Chinese & American products, respectfully, as the potential for the conflict to hurt the global economy grows.  Trump has previously suggested he would want to leave duties in place until China complied with a potential deal.  Talks collapsed in May just as the Trump administration said it had gotten close to an agreement with Beijing.  The White House accused China of backing out of major commitments.  Both sides then increased rates of existing tariffs.  Earlier today, the top White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said the Trump administration considers it “very, very important” for Beijing to buy agricultural products while the talks are ongoing.  He said he would put “no timeline” on the talks & emphasized “quality not speed.”

Lighthizer, Mnuchin spoke with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Tuesday: Official

Pepsico (PEP), a Dividend Aristocrat, beat estimates for quarterly revenue & profit, as the company benefited from demand for its sodas & Lays chips, as well as its sparkling waters.  Revenue in its snacking division, Frito-Lay North America, rose 4.5%, while it increased 2.5% in its beverage unit.  PEP launched berry, lime & mango flavored sodas in 12-ounce cans earlier this year & introduced Bubly sparkling water in fruity flavors as well as healthier chips such as Bare's apple chips & Off the Eaten Path's veggie crisps.  Organic revenue, which excludes the effect of currency fluctuations & acquisitions, increased 4.5%.  The forecast called for 4.9% growth in organic revenue.  Net revenue rose 2.2% to $16.5B.  EPS rose to $1.44 from $1.28 a year earlier.  Excluding one-time items, EPS was $1.54.  Expectations has been for $1.50 per on revenue of $16.43B.  The stock fell 82¢.
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PepsiCo results powered by demand for sodas, chips


The number of unfilled jobs in the US fell slightly in May, but remained near record levels, suggesting demand for workers was strong even during a month when hiring slowed sharply.  There were a seasonally adjusted 7.323M unfilled jobs at the end of May, down 49K from the prior month's revised figure, the Labor Dept said.

U.S. Job Openings Slipped in May to 7.3 Million


Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Pres Patrick Harker said he doesn't see a compelling reason to lower interest rates given the apparent strength of the US economy, though slowing global growth & uncertainty over trade policy have created clear risks to that outlook.  Harker said he supported the decision to hold rates steady at last month's Fed policy meeting & projected no change in them this year.  “The U.S. economy continues to be strong,” he said today.

Philadelphia Fed’s Harker Sees No Need for Interest-Rate Changes


Oil futures gained, with US prices logging a 4th straight session gain, buoyed by tensions with Iran that threaten the global flow of oil & by expectations for a weekly decline in US crude supplies.  Concerns over a slowdown in energy demand, however, have kept prices in check.  Traders also awaited Congressional testimony this week from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell & any hints on the likelihood of an interest-rate cut later this month.  Aug West Texas Intermediate crude rose 17¢ to settle at $57.83 a barrel, following 3 straight session of gains.  The settlement was the highest for a front-month contract since Jul 1.  Intl benchmark Sep Brent  which had diverged from its US counterpart a day earlier, climbed a nickel to $64.16 a barrel.  Rising tensions between Iran & the US have brought the 2 countries close to conflict & threatened the security of major oil transportation choke point, the Strait of Hormuz.  Last month, Pres Trump called off air strikes at the last minute in retaliation for Iran shooting down a US drone.  The EU today urged Iran to reverse its scaled-up uranium enrichment that breaches a nuclear deal it agreed in 2015.  The Trump administration withdrew from the accord last year & imposed oil-focused economic sanctions.

U.S. oil prices tally a fourth straight session gain


The stock market didn't do much of anything today.  Buyers returned, i.e. in the last hour, after a weak opening.  But their enthusiasm was limited.  Powell's testimony in the next 2 days should be the major driver for stocks.  A new record for the Dow at about 27K is less than 200 away. 

Dow Jones Industrials









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