Friday, July 26, 2019

Markets rise after GDP shows slower growth

Dow crawled up 4, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ shot up 65.  The MLP index fell 1+ to the 253s & the REIT index was even at 384.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were a tad lower.  Oil slid back into the 55s & gold gained 6 to 1420.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil56.12
+0.10+0.2%

GC=FGold1   ,422.90
+8.20+0.6%







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The US economy slowed in Q2, but grew more quickly than expected, according to  the Commerce Dept.  Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 2.1% in Q2, down from 3.1% in Q1, but beating expectations of 1.8%.  The report provides some solid optimism for the economy in the midst of growing fears about an impending a global slowdown, thanks to uncertainties continuing to weigh on the economy.  While the number is better than expected, policymakers at the Federal Reserve are unlikely to reverse course on their expected decision to lower interest rates at the end of the month.  The central bank is expected to cut the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points at its Jul 31 meeting, lowering the rate to 2.00-2.25%.

GDP slows in second quarter, but stronger than expected at 2.1%


Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, dampened expectations about any major breakthroughs coming from US-China trade negotiations next week.  “I wouldn’t expect any grand deal,” Kudlow said.  “Talking to our negotiators, I think they’re going to reset the stage and hopefully go back to where the talks left off last May.”  “We were doing well then,” he said.  Kudlow added the 2 sides still need to address key structural issues such as intellectual property theft & forced transfers of technology.  Stocks pared gains after Kudlow’s comment & the Dow traded just above the flatline.  A US trade delegation is scheduled to fly to China on Mon for negotiations with Chinese officials.  This will be the first round of trade talks since Pres Trump & Chinese Pres Xi Jinping agreed to restart negotiations at the G-20 summit last month.  Talks broke down in May after the US hiked tariffs on Bs of $s worth of Chinese imports.  China retaliated with levies of its own. Kudlow noted that 90% of a deal had been worked out before the breakdown.  Kudlow also cheered the strength of the US economy after the release of stronger-than-forecast growth data (shown above).

Kudlow: 'I wouldn't expect any grand deal' on China

McDonald's (MCD), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported same-store sales growth that topped estimates, as promotions & store upgrades pay off for its US business.  Shares of the company hit an all-time high of $218.  EPS rose to $1.97, up from $1.90 a year earlier.  Excluding items, EPS was $2.05, in line with estimates.  Net sales for the qtr were flat.  Revenue of $5.34B, topped expectations of $5.33B.  Stripping out the impact of currency, revenue rose by 3%.  The refranchising initiative once again hit sales this qtr.  Selling corp-owned stores to franchisees helps the company cut costs but hurts reported revenue because of accounting differences.  US same-store sales grew by 5.7%, well above expectations of 4.5%.  The growth was attributed to successful deals like its 2 for $5 Mix & Match promotion & positive impact from its tech-focused store renovations.  Core menu items, which includes Big Macs & Quarter Pounders, continued to sell well in the US.  The company plans to spend about $1B in fiscal 2019 to modernize its American stores with self-order kiosks & other upgrades in the hopes of imitating the success it has seen abroad with tech-focused renovations.  The company is also trying to drum up sales by expanding its delivery footprint.  The fast-food chain also saw strong same-store sales growth outside of its home market.  In its intl stores owned by the company, sales at stores open at least 12 months increased by 6.6%, primarily driven by the performance of the UK, France & Germany.  In intl markets operated by franchisees, same-store sales grew by 7.9%.  The stock went up 2.73 to 217.17.
If you would like to learn more about MCD, clcik on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MCD?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

McDonald’s stock hits all-time high as promotions boost US second-quarter sales

The GDP data was fairly good compared with low expectations.  Earnings can propel stocks higher.  Alphabet (GOOG) &Twitter (TWTR) are each up 10% on favorable reports.  Without those 2 gainers, NAZ would have a modest gain (like the Dow).  Traders are still waiting to hear from the Fed about a rate increase next week.  Meanwhile, US-China trade talks are just plodding along at a very, very slow pace.

Dow Jones Industrials








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