Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Markets slide lower as investors wait for Fed comments on rate cuts

Dow fell 90, decliners over advancers about 2-1 & NAZ rebounded 10.  The MLP index declined 1+ to the 252s & the REIT index was even in the 393s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were sold.  Oil crawled higher in the 57s & gold dropped 6 to 1394.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil57.46
-0.20-0.4%

GC=FGold   1,393.50
-6.50-0.5%






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Top US & China officials are expected to speak this week in an attempt to jump-start stalled trade negotiations between the 2 nations, but many of the same tensions that undermined talks previously remain.  US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer & his counterparts in China will discuss the potential agreement by phone this week, according to a senior administration official.  Should those talks be successful, a face-to-face meeting is expected.  The revived negotiations come after Pres Trump & Chinese Pres Xi Jinping agreed at the G20 summit to withhold the imposition of any new tariffs.  Duties on $250B in Chinese products, however, remain & are a lingering point of tensions in the discussions.  Revived negotiations come after Pres Trump & Chinese Pres Xi Jinping agreed at the G20 summit to withhold the imposition of any new tariffs.  Duties on $250B in Chinese products, however, remain & are a lingering point of tensions in the discussions.  At the meeting in Japan, Trump also said he would reverse a decision to block US firms from selling to Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies, but the details continue to remain unclear.  Meanwhile, the White House is facing pressure from moderate House Dems to halt any plans to force a vote on the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trade deal between the 3 nations meant to update the North American Free Trade Agreement.  "Moving forward with implementing legislation absent the agreement of Democratic leadership would almost certainly be taken as a failure to fulfill the consultation requirements of TPA," lawmakers wrote in a letter to Lighthizer.  The Trump administration says it is working “in good faith and constructively” with Congress, but urged quick passage of the USMCA.

US, China seek to restart trade negotiations


Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's job is safe – at least for the time being – despite outward pressure & criticism from Pres Trump.  “I will say that unequivocally, at the present time, yes he is safe,” Larry Kudlow, the pres's chief economic adviser said.  Kudlow also said the White House is making “no effort” to remove the head of the central bank from his post.  The pres has repeatedly pressed the Fed to lower interest rates – which most traders think could happen at the end of Jul – while denouncing policymakers' decision, in Dec, to raise the benchmark federal funds rate (the 4th time they did so in 2018).  Trump went after the Fed again last week, lambasting it as the “most difficult problem” facing the country.  “They raised rates too soon, too often, & tightened, while others did just the opposite,” Trump wrote in a tweet.  “As well as we are doing from the day after the great Election, when the Market shot right up, it could have been even better - massive additional wealth would have been created, & used very well. Our most difficult problem is not our competitors, it is the Federal Reserve!”  Reports also emerged in mid-Jun that the White House was exploring the legality of demoting Powell, after a report that the Trump administration had looked into firing the Fed chair in Feb.  “I’m not going to comment,” Kudlow said at the time.  “It happened six months ago, and it’s not happening today, and therefore I have nothing to say about it.”  Most recently, at its Jun policy-setting meeting, the Fed suggested a rate cut could happen in Jul, though noted it ultimately depended on uncertainties surrounding the US–China trade war, as well as persistent muted inflation.  But a blockbuster Jun jobs report -- the US economy created 224K jobs, versus the expected 160K -- raised questions about whether a rate cut was really necessary.

LARRY KUDLOW: FED CHAIR POWELL'S JOB IS SAFE 'AT THE PRESENT TIME'


Pres Trump said the US needs to stand up to India on the trade front.  In a tweet, Trump said: “India has long had a field day putting Tariffs on American products. No longer acceptable!”  MSCI India ETF (INDA) shares fell more than 1% in the premarket after the tweet was sent.  It later recovered to trade along the flatline, however.  Earlier this year, the Trump administration stripped India of a preferential status that exempted Bs of $s worth of products made there from US levies.   “I have determined that India has not assured the United States that India will provide equitable and reasonable access to its markets,” Trump said.  India has tariffs on US products such as Harley-Davidson (HOG) motorcycles & US-grown apples, among others.  In Jun, Trump said India’s 50% levy on HOG bikes was “unacceptable.”  The latest escalation comes as the US tries to broker a trade deal with China.  US officials are expected to meet with Chinese trade negotiators this week.  Late last month, Trump & Chinese Pres Xi Jinping agreed to hold off on slapping additional tariffs on US & Chinese products.  China & the US hiked tariffs on Bs of $s worth of each other's products in May, sparking fears of a prolonged trade war between the world's largest economies.

Trump says India tariffs on American products are ‘no longer acceptable’

Traders are taking another pause while they wait to hear comments by chair Powell on Fed intentions for interest rates.  Chances are great he will not commit to any action at the next meeting in 3 weeks.  But trade issues continue percolate.  US-China talks have restarted, whatever that means, & now there is new interest on US-India relations.  Never a dull moment in DC on trade isssues.

Dow Jones Industrials









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