Friday, July 26, 2019

Markets rise on GDP data topping expectations

Dow rose 51, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ gained 91.  The MLP index fell 1+ to the 253s & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 385s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries slid a tad lower.  Oil crawled higher in the 56s (more below) & gold added 2 to 1417.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)



The Trump administration unveiled details about a $16B aid package to help farmers caught in the crosshairs of the US-China trade war.  The Agriculture Dept, which first rolled out the aid package in May, said the payments will be made in 3 installments over the next 6 months.  If warranted, the 2nd tranche will be made to farmers in Nov & the 3rd in Jan.  Farmers will receive the first payment in mid-to-late Aug.  Payments will be determined based on a farm's size & location, with rates ranging from $15 to $150 per acre, depending on the trade war’s impact in that area.  The subsidies come as US negotiators prepared to head to China for in-person trade talks next week as the 2 largest economies attempt to strike a deal.  Negotiations collapsed in May, after Pres Trump accused Beijing of reneging on a deal.  During a meeting in Japan for the G20 summit, Trump & Chinese Pres Xi Jinping to a 90-day tariff ceasefire in the year-long conflict, which has rattled financial markets & threatened to slow economic growth.  At the time, Trump said China promised it would “immediately” start buying American farm products; however, no large-scale purchases have taken place yet.  Farmers have been one of the biggest casualties of the trade war.  China is the biggest buyer of US soybeans, importing more than $12.4B worth of the oil seed in 2017.  Retaliatory tariffs by China resulted in US soybean exports to China falling by more than 80% with Brazil & Argentina supplying China instead.  Last year, as a result of the tariffs, soybeans in storage totaled about 3.74B  bushels, up 18% from the prior year, according to data from the USDA.  This marks the 2nd aid package for farmers.  Last Jul, the Trump administration announced a $12B farm aid package -- including $4.7B in direct payments to farmers -- to help shield them from the effects of global trade spats with China, Mexico, Canada & the EU.  The bulk of the payments went to soybean farmers, which drew some flak.

Trump gives US farmers new round of funds as trade war cushion


The US will announce retaliatory action against France in response to the country's new tax affecting American technology companies, Pres Trump said.  He suggested he could target French wine with tariffs — a move experts considered the most likely US response to the French digital services tax.  “I’ve always said American wine is better than French wine!” Trump tweeted.  The pres said his administration will unveil “a substantial reciprocal action” following what he called French Pres Emmanuel Macron’s “foolishness.”   Earlier this month, France passed a 3% tax that will affect firms which draw about $28M in revenue from digital services in France.  The Trump administration then started an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.  If, after the probe, the US determines the tax is discriminatory or unreasonably targets US firms, Trump could respond with tariffs.  Trade experts considered Trump's most likely response a 100% tariff on French wine — one of the country's signature, symbolic products.  White House spokesman Judd Deere criticized France's tax but did not give any new details on what the US could do to retaliate.  He said the administration is “looking closely at all other policy tools” in addition to the already launched investigation as it determines how to respond to France.  “The Trump Administration has consistently stated that it will not sit idly by and tolerate discrimination against U.S.-based firms,” he added.

Trump threatens French wine, says US will retaliate for tax on tech firms

Intel (INTC), a Dow stock, shares slipped following a big earnings beat & a surprise gain for the chip maker's PC business as enthusiasm was tempered by analysts who argued that the company still has a lot of work ahead of it.  INTC reported adjusted EPS of $1.06 on revenue of $16.51B while the forecast called for EPS of 89¢ on revenue of $15.68B.  A big surprise came from its largest segment, client-computing or traditional PC, with revenue rising 1% to $8.8 billion when analysts had expected a 6.8% decline to $8.13B from the year-ago period.  Windows operating system was cited for a global boost in PC sales by research firms & analysts who also pointed to buyers putting in early orders to avoid possible tariffs as a factor.  As much was referenced by CEO Bob Swan.  “Trade uncertainties created anxiety across our customers’ supply chain and drove a pull-in of client CPU orders into the second quarter,” he said.  That shift in sales may have contributed to the mixed reviews of analysts, some of whom feel INTC still has a way to go when it comes to competing against Advanced Micro Devices's (AMD) 7-nanometer chips when its own 10-nm chip release has faced delays.  In chip parlance, nanometers, or nm, refers to the size of the transistors that go on a computer chip, with the general rule being that smaller transistors are faster and more efficient in using power.  INTC stock fell 58¢.
If you would like to learn more about INTC, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/INTC?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Intel’s earnings beat gets fairly cold reception from analysts

Oil futures flipped between small gains & losses, giving it a modest weekly gain as traders continue to fret over prospects for demand growth.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Sep delivery rose 18¢ (0.3%) to end at $56.20 a barrel, leaving the benchmark with a 0.8% weekly rise.  Oct Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 11¢ to end at $63.37 a barrel, posting a 1.5% rise for the week.  Futures saw little movement after oil-field services firm Baker Hughes reported the number of US oil rigs fell by 3 this week to 776.  Oil's gains have been muted in the face of seemingly bullish supply developments, including a 6-week streak of US crude-oil inventory declines & increased tensions between Iran & the US & other Western countries, notably the UK.

Oil logs weekly gain with market fundamentals ‘at an inflection point’


In the last 2 hours, investors bid up the Dow while the NAZ was popular all day (setting yet another record).  The GDP data was good enough to keep the bulls happy & the Dow was able to finish the week with a small gain (& slightly under the record close).  However they are counting on a rate cut by the Fed next week.  The gains are that fragile!

Dow Jones Industrials









 

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