Thursday, June 11, 2020

Markets dive on fears over second waver of coronavirus

Dow plunged 1861, only 91 stocks on the NYS were higher & NAZ plunged 527.  The MLP index tumbled 15+ to the 143s & the REIT index dove off a cliff, down 23 to 341.  Junk bond funds dropped in price & Treasuries continued in heavy demand.  Oil sank almost 4 to the 35s on higher inventories & gold finished higher, rising 11 to 1732, while stocks were sold (more on both below).

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Debt surged & household net worth tumbled in the first 3 months of the year as the initial impact of the coronavirus pandemic hit, according to Federal Reserve data.  Total domestic nonfinancial debt jumped by 11.7% to $55.9T, the Fed said in its quarterly statement on domestic financial accounts.  Debt had increased by 3.2% in Q4-2019.  At the same time, plunging stock market values took a bite out of net worth, which fell $7.4T to $110.8T.  Stocks, however, staged a sharp recovery off the Mar lows, so much of that loss likely has been made up.  Equity values fell by $7.8T, while real estate value increased by $400B in Q1.  The biggest debt gain come on the business side, rising 18.8%, while federal gov debt also jumped 14.3%.  Total federal debt recently passed $26T.  Household debt rose 3.9% due in large part to an increase on the mortgage side of 3.2% & consumer debt rose 1.6%.  The increases in debt & decrease in household worth came as the longest expansion in US history came to an end.  Earlier this week, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that a recession started in Feb, following an 11-year expansion.  The bull market in stocks ended the same month but turned around on Mar 23.

Total U.S. debt surges to $55.9 trillion after big increases in corporate and government borrowing

Nashville Mayor John Cooper announced that he intends to curb the city's next reopening phase after reporting a “slightly elevated” average in Covid-19 cases over the last 2 weeks.  “As of today, the majority of our public health metrics are satisfactory. But our 14-day new case average remains slightly elevated, prompting us to stay in Phase Two of our Roadmap for Reopening Nashville,” Cooper said.  Nashville's local health dept reported 6627 total confirmed Covid-19 cases today, an increase of 56 cases since yesterday.  The dept reported an additional death, bringing the total fatalities over the course of the pandemic to 80.  The Dem mayor said a surge in Covid-19 cases in southeast Nashville “warrants further attention” & has directed the health dept to focus its efforts in the region.  Dr Alex Jahangir, the head of Nashville’s coronavirus task force, said nearly 50% of all new cases detected in the past month were found in southeast Nashville.  The city will focus on offering more testing, contact tracing & education efforts in that area.  The city is currently in phase 2 of its reopening plan, which allows restaurants & retail stores to operate at 75% capacity but bars must remain closed.  Community centers, golf course clubhouses, museums, Sportsplex & nature centers were allowed to reopen at 50% capacity, according to the city’s order.  Tennessee Gov Bill Lee allowed restaurants & retailers to reopen in the state in late Apr with limitations.  Gyms were able to open May 1 under state recommendations that include certain restrictions such as keeping pools, showers & locker rooms closed.  Personal care services such as barbershops & beauty salons are allowed to resume operations as are bowling alleys, arcades, dance classes & water sports.

Nashville mayor delays next stage of reopening after coronavirus cases rise

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude inventories rose by 5.7M barrels for last week.  That compared with a forecast for an average decline of 3.2M barrels.  The American Petroleum Institute reported a climb of 8.4M barrels.  The EIA data also showed crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., storage hub declined by about 2.3M barrels for the week.  Gasoline supply rose by 900K barrels, while distillate stockpiles were 1.6M barrels higher.  The forecast expected supply increases of 300K barrels for gasoline & 1.5M barrels for distillates.

EIA reports a weekly climb of nearly 6 million barrels in U.S. crude supplies

Gold futures climbed to their highest finish in more than a week, supported by growing concerns of a resurgence in US cases of coronavirus and a sobering economic outlook from the Federal Reserve.  The Fed's updated policy statement & projections indicate that it expects a 6.5% contraction by the end of the year on a year-over-year basis, with the unemployment rate ending at 9.3%, well above the Fed's estimate of the long-run rate forecast of 4.1%.  The number of US coronavirus infections passed the 2M mark & over 112K Americans have died.  Aug gold rose $19 (1.1%) to settle at $1739 an ounce, marking the highest settlement for a most-active contract since Jun 1.  Prices yesterday, which settled a ½-hour before the Fed policy statement & interest rate projections, were slightly lower. 

Gold ends higher as global stocks sell off amid fears of a resurgence in U.S. coronavirus cases


Oil futures fell sharply, with US prices down by more than 8% to suffer their largest one-day loss since late Apr.  A resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the US & a gloomy economic outlook from the Federal Reserve dulled prospects for energy demand.  Recent US gov data showing a weekly climb in domestic crude supplies also contributed to oil's price decline.  Jul West Texas Intermediate fell $3.26 (8.2%) to settle at $36.34 a barrel, the lowest front-month contract finish since Jun 1 & largest one-day loss since Apr 27.

U.S. oil futures lose over 8% for biggest one-day loss in 6 weeks

The stock market was overbought after an outstanding rally, & investors took profits today.  As pointed out many times, the recovery will take time.  Initially the percentage numbers may look good.  That's because they will be coming off depressed levels.  At the macro level, it's going to take many months for the economy to return to healthy levels that the stock market had gotten used to.  For what it's worth, there was some buying in the last hour.  The Dow held above 25K & finished above the lows.

Dow Jones Industrials







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