Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Markets rise as trade fears decrease

Dow rose 177, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ gained 117 (well above 10K).  The MLP index was even at 148 & the REIT index slid back 1 to the 348s.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries dipped lower in price.  Oil advanced to 41 & gold shot up 14 to 1781 (approaching record highs made 9 years ago).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil41.04
  +0.31+0.8%

GC=FGold   1,784.30
+17.90+1.0%






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Sales of newly-built single-family houses occurred at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 676K in May, the gov reported.  That represented a 16.6% increase from the downwardly-revised pace of 580K in Apr.  Compared with the previous year, new home sales were up 12.7% in May.  The forecast callled for new-home sales to occur at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 650K in May.  The gov uses a small sample size to produce the new-home sales report, which makes it prone to significant revisions, as in the case of Apr's figure, which was readjusted to a pace of 580K from the originally reported 623K.  The Northeast experienced the most pronounced increase in sales, with a 45.5% jump, followed by the West (up 29%) & the South (up 15.2%).  Sales fell by 6.4% in the Midwest.  The median sales price for new homes sold in May was $318K.   At the end of the month, there were 318K new homes estimated to be up for sale, which equates to a 5.6-month supply.  A 6-month supply of homes is generally considered to be indicative of a balanced market.  The new home sales figure for May increased, while the figure for existing home sales in May, reported yesterday, was down, in part because the 2 reports measure sales based on different stages of the home-buying process.  The new home sales report captures sales based on when the contract is signed, which is in the early stages of the process.  The existing sales report, on the other hand, reflects when sales are closed, which occurs one to 2 months after signing typically.  Therefore, the May existing sales report really reflected what was happening across the country in Mar & Apr, while the new home sales report really reflects what went on in May.  And last month was characterized by many states reducing restrictions on people’s movement due to the coronavirus pandemic & a consequential improvement in the labor market.

New home sales surged in May as buyers scrambled to find properties for purchase

Pres Trump signaled Monday that he's open to a second stimulus check for Americans still reeling financially from the coronavirus pandemic and the related economic lockdown.  Asked whether he plans to give another cash payment to some Americans, Trump said: "Yeah we are. We are."  "We will be doing another stimulus package," he added.  "It'll be very good, it'll be very generous."  Trump declined to say how much money Americans could see.  "You'll find out about," he added. "You'll find out."  The White House has not officially taken a stance on a 2nd stimulus payment. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said.

Trump hints at 'generous' 2nd stimulus payment: How much more you could get


White House trade advisor Peter Navarro has clarified that the US-China phase one trade deal is not over, saying the media had taken his comments “wildly out of context.”  Pres Trump swiftly confirmed on Twitter that the deal was “fully intact.”  “My comments have been taken wildly out of context,” Navarro said from the White House.  “They had nothing at all to do with the Phase I trade deal, which continues in place. I was simply speaking to the lack of trust we now have of the Chinese Communist Party after they lied about the origins of the China virus and foisted a pandemic upon the world.”  In a Twitter post, Trump said “The China Trade Deal is fully intact. Hopefully they will continue to live up to the terms of the Agreement!”  It had been reported that Navarro — a China hawk — had blamed the breakdown of the trade deal on China not promptly warning about the coronavirus outbreak.  The virus emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan late last year, before both countries signed the trade deal in Jan.  Navarro said that the “turning point” came when the US learned about the spread of the coronavirus only after the Chinese delegation had left DC.  The delegation, which included Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, was in DC to sign the phase one agreement.

White House trade advisor Peter Navarro denies saying that China trade deal is ‘over’

The bulls are feeling much better now that more of the US economy is opening up.  Upticks in virus cases while disturbing are not bothering them since the numbers are still small.  But safe haven gold remains in demand by nervous investors.

Dow Jones Industrials








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