Dow gained 101 (but well off earlier highs), advancers over decliners a huge 9-1 & NAZ gained 61. The MLP index added 2+ to the 154s & the REIT index went up 5 to the 362s. Junk bond funds rose in price & Treasuries were sold. Oil jumped 1+ to the 38s & gold added 3 to 1730.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
U.S. May retail sales surge 17.7% in the biggest monthly jump ever
A faster-than-expected turnaround in homebuyer demand, following a sharp drop-off at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, has the nation’s homebuilders bullish on their business again. Builder sentiment jumped a striking 21 points in Jun to 58, the largest monthly increase ever in the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (NAHB). Any reading above 50 indicates a positive market. In Apr, it plunged a record 42 points to 30. “As the nation reopens, housing is well-positioned to lead the economy forward,” said NAHB Chairman Dean Mon, a homebuilder & developer. “Inventory is tight, mortgage applications are increasing, interest rates are low and confidence is rising.” Meanwhile, mortgage applications to purchase a newly built home jumped 10.9% annually in May, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Of the homebuilder index's 3 components, current sales conditions jumped 21 points to 63. Sales expectations in the next 6 months rose 22 points to 68. Buyer traffic more than doubled from May to Jun, from 22 to 43. This last component was surprising, given how many builders reported more online inquiries & virtual tours during the pandemic. This report comes on the heels of a better-than-expected quarterly earnings report from one of the nation's largest public homebuilders, Lennar (LEN). CEO Stuart Miller said the company had stopped its new home starts & stopped purchasing land in Mar, only to have to reverse course unexpectedly. “So we know that as we get to the fourth quarter we’re going to be a little short on our closings, but nonetheless, we rebooted pretty quickly as the market started showing signs of recovery in housing,” he said. “I think there will be a little bit of a pause in our numbers, but it will come back very quickly.” Miller also indicated that the stories of urban flight are real, as people are rethinking the way they want to live in an age of lockdowns & work-from-home orders. That trend appears to be playing out among all the builders. “Builders report increasing demand for families seeking single-family homes in inner and outer suburbs that feature lower density neighborhoods,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “At the same time, elevated unemployment and the risk of new, local virus outbreaks remain a risk to the housing market.”
Homebuilder sentiment posts biggest monthly surge ever as housing rebounds from coronavirus
McDonald’s (MCD), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, US same-store sales fell just 5.1% in May as the chain reopened dining rooms in its home market. But outside the US, the global fast-food giant has had to reckon with more widespread temporary closures that shut down drive-thru & delivery service. The UK, for example, only began reopening all of its drive-thru locations in Jun. While U.S. same-store sales shrank 12% this qtr as of May 31, global same-store sales plunged 29.8%. CEO Chris Kempczinski said at the end of Apr that same-store sales declines in Q2 will be steeper than the previous qtr's. Global same-store sales shrank 3.4% in the first 3 months of the year after plunging 22% in Mar. Across all 3 of its segments — US, intl operated markets & intl developmental licensed markets — same-store sales improved sequentially from Apr to May. Intl operated markets, which was the hardest hit segment by restaurant closures, saw its same-store sales plunge 66.7% in Apr & improve to fall just 40.5% in May. The segment includes the UK, France, Italy & Spain, all of which were hit hard by the coronavirus & restaurant closures. Australia, on the other hand, saw positive same-store sales, thanks to drive-thru lanes. As of yesterday, 90% of the segment's restaurants were open again. In the intl developmental licensed markets segment, same-store sales shrank 32.3% in Apr & 20% in May. Temporary restaurant closures, particularly in Latin America, hurt sales. And same-store sales in China, where the virus first hit, remained negative, although Japan saw same-store sales growth. Roughly 90% of the segment's restaurants are operating, as of yesterday. In the US, about 1K out of 14K locations have reopened with reduced seating capacity & only about 100 restaurants are closed entirely. Still, US traffic & same-store sales remain negative, with breakfast being particularly hard hit. Consumers working from home are also making their own early morning meal, a trend that is reviving categories like orange juice & cereal. The stock rose 1.57.
If you would like to learn more about MCD, click on this ;ink:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MCD?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales fall 5% in May as dining rooms reopen
Stocks saw opening gains evaporate as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was delivering testimony after he signaled bond buying caution. The Dow shot up around 800 in early trading & then gave up most of those gains. The big gains in retail sales should be tempered with caution because they are coming off depression lows. While they bring encouragement to investors, future months will see more moderate gains. The early advance was powered by hopes for infrastructure stimulus. Wild swings for stock prices will continue for some time & gold continues in demand.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 38.89 | +1.77 | +4.8% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,727.10 | -0.10 | -0.0% |
Retail sales shattered already-lofty expectations
for May as consumers freed from the coronavirus-induced lockdowns began
shopping again. The 17.7% headline gain including food sales
easily topped the record in 2001 & beat the 8% estimate. Retail sales alone powered 16.8% higher from a month earlier, more
than double the estimate of 8% & reversing a 16.4%
plunge from the previous month. Clothing & accessories stores reported
the biggest percentage gain at 188% while sporting goods, hobby,
musical instruments & book stores rose 88.2%. The numbers, added to an upbeat
mood bby investors. Pres Trump was quick to post on the news, tweeting that it “looks
like a BIG DAY FOR THE STOCK MARKET AND JOBS!” even though there are no
employment numbers out. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, which popped by 44.1%, May's gain
came in at 12.4%, which also is the best on record going back to 1967. After being almost completely shuttered during the
lockdown, food services & drinking places saw a 29.1% rebound in May.
Some states began allowing outdoor dining during the month after the
establishments were limited to curbside pickup & delivery. While the monthly gains set records, the economy is still making up for lost ground. Total
sales were off 6.1% from a year ago as economists still expect the
biggest annualized decline for GDP in Q2 that the US has ever
seen.
U.S. May retail sales surge 17.7% in the biggest monthly jump ever
A faster-than-expected turnaround in homebuyer demand, following a sharp drop-off at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, has the nation’s homebuilders bullish on their business again. Builder sentiment jumped a striking 21 points in Jun to 58, the largest monthly increase ever in the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (NAHB). Any reading above 50 indicates a positive market. In Apr, it plunged a record 42 points to 30. “As the nation reopens, housing is well-positioned to lead the economy forward,” said NAHB Chairman Dean Mon, a homebuilder & developer. “Inventory is tight, mortgage applications are increasing, interest rates are low and confidence is rising.” Meanwhile, mortgage applications to purchase a newly built home jumped 10.9% annually in May, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Of the homebuilder index's 3 components, current sales conditions jumped 21 points to 63. Sales expectations in the next 6 months rose 22 points to 68. Buyer traffic more than doubled from May to Jun, from 22 to 43. This last component was surprising, given how many builders reported more online inquiries & virtual tours during the pandemic. This report comes on the heels of a better-than-expected quarterly earnings report from one of the nation's largest public homebuilders, Lennar (LEN). CEO Stuart Miller said the company had stopped its new home starts & stopped purchasing land in Mar, only to have to reverse course unexpectedly. “So we know that as we get to the fourth quarter we’re going to be a little short on our closings, but nonetheless, we rebooted pretty quickly as the market started showing signs of recovery in housing,” he said. “I think there will be a little bit of a pause in our numbers, but it will come back very quickly.” Miller also indicated that the stories of urban flight are real, as people are rethinking the way they want to live in an age of lockdowns & work-from-home orders. That trend appears to be playing out among all the builders. “Builders report increasing demand for families seeking single-family homes in inner and outer suburbs that feature lower density neighborhoods,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “At the same time, elevated unemployment and the risk of new, local virus outbreaks remain a risk to the housing market.”
Homebuilder sentiment posts biggest monthly surge ever as housing rebounds from coronavirus
McDonald’s (MCD), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, US same-store sales fell just 5.1% in May as the chain reopened dining rooms in its home market. But outside the US, the global fast-food giant has had to reckon with more widespread temporary closures that shut down drive-thru & delivery service. The UK, for example, only began reopening all of its drive-thru locations in Jun. While U.S. same-store sales shrank 12% this qtr as of May 31, global same-store sales plunged 29.8%. CEO Chris Kempczinski said at the end of Apr that same-store sales declines in Q2 will be steeper than the previous qtr's. Global same-store sales shrank 3.4% in the first 3 months of the year after plunging 22% in Mar. Across all 3 of its segments — US, intl operated markets & intl developmental licensed markets — same-store sales improved sequentially from Apr to May. Intl operated markets, which was the hardest hit segment by restaurant closures, saw its same-store sales plunge 66.7% in Apr & improve to fall just 40.5% in May. The segment includes the UK, France, Italy & Spain, all of which were hit hard by the coronavirus & restaurant closures. Australia, on the other hand, saw positive same-store sales, thanks to drive-thru lanes. As of yesterday, 90% of the segment's restaurants were open again. In the intl developmental licensed markets segment, same-store sales shrank 32.3% in Apr & 20% in May. Temporary restaurant closures, particularly in Latin America, hurt sales. And same-store sales in China, where the virus first hit, remained negative, although Japan saw same-store sales growth. Roughly 90% of the segment's restaurants are operating, as of yesterday. In the US, about 1K out of 14K locations have reopened with reduced seating capacity & only about 100 restaurants are closed entirely. Still, US traffic & same-store sales remain negative, with breakfast being particularly hard hit. Consumers working from home are also making their own early morning meal, a trend that is reviving categories like orange juice & cereal. The stock rose 1.57.
If you would like to learn more about MCD, click on this ;ink:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MCD?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales fall 5% in May as dining rooms reopen
Stocks saw opening gains evaporate as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was delivering testimony after he signaled bond buying caution. The Dow shot up around 800 in early trading & then gave up most of those gains. The big gains in retail sales should be tempered with caution because they are coming off depression lows. While they bring encouragement to investors, future months will see more moderate gains. The early advance was powered by hopes for infrastructure stimulus. Wild swings for stock prices will continue for some time & gold continues in demand.
Dow Jones Industrials
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