Friday, June 5, 2020

Markets rocket ahead after record jobs increase in May

Dow surged an eye popping 881, advancers over decliners about 9-1 & NAZ shot up 184.  The MLP index rose 6+ to 162 & the REIT index jumped 14+ to the 371s.  Junk bond funds (stocks with high yields) rallied along with stocks & Treasuries saw heavy selling.  Oil jumped 1+ to 39 & gold plunged a huge 40  to 1678 while stocks were being purchased.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil39.11
  +1.70+4.54%

GC=FGold   1,681.70
 -45.70 -2.65%






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The US unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 13.3% in May, down from a record high in Apr, indicating the nation's economy is recovering faster than expected from the coronavirus lockdown.  The Labor Dept said that employers added a stunning 2.5M jobs in May -- the biggest increase on record.  The economy shed a combined 22.1M jobs in Apr & Mar, meaning there are an estimated 21M Americans currently out of work.  The forecast expected the unemployment to rise to 19.8%  & that employers would shed 8M jobs.  If the expectation had been accurate, it would have been the worst figure since the depression.  The jobless rate dropped from 14.7% in Apr, which was the highest level ever since record-keeping began in 1948.  The surprise decline, combined with the surge in jobs, suggests the worst is over for the nation's economy as states ease stay-at-home guidelines & businesses bring back staff.  Leisure & hospitality, the sector hit hardest by the outbreak of the virus, accounted for almost ½ of the increase, with more than 1.2M employees returning to their jobs last month.  In Apr, the industry lost a staggering 7.6M jobs.  More than 1.3M workers returned to food services & drinking places as states gradually allowed businesses deemed nonessential to reopen.  Construction also saw a significant jump in employment last month:  The sector added 464K jobs while education & health services increased by 424K & retail climbed 368K.  The number of unemployed Americans who reported being temporarily laid off decreased by 2.7M in May, representing the majority of the jobs that returned.  Among those who said they were not temporarily laid off, the number of permanent job losses continued to increase, rising by 295K in May to 2.3M. Over the course of the past few weeks, every state has started to navigate reopening their economies.  But the unemployment level, which remains at the highest level since the depression, is expected to remain elevated as social distancing guidelines remain in place.

US adds surprise 2.5M jobs in May as unemployment sinks, signaling rebound


Following a blowout jobs report, VP Mike Pence said that the Trump administration will have more “good faith” discussions with Demts about coronavirus relief.  “Those discussions are ongoing,” Pence said when asked if the surprisingly strong economic numbers ended the need to negotiate with Dems on additional pandemic relief.  “We’re going to work in good faith to put the interests of the American families and American businesses first,” Pence added.  “But what’s absolutely essential about any additional recovery package is that we have the kind of pro-growth policies that President Trump has been advancing.”  Pence spoke shortly after the May jobs report showed a stunning rise in employment and a decline in the jobless rate, defying expectations and suggesting an economic recovery from pandemic is underway.  The US added 2.5M jobs in May & the unemployment rate fell to 13.3% from 14.7% in Apr.  Pres immediately took a victory lap on the numbers, calling them “stupendous,” “joyous,” “STUNNING” & “INCREDIBLE” in a series of tweets.  He plans to extend the celebration shortly.  Despite the administration's optimistic tone, its insistence on pursuing further aid indicates that there are lingering concerns about the economy even after May's gains.  Pence said a payroll tax cut remains a necessity for sustaining an economic recovery & added that “we’re always mindful of inflation” in an era where the federal gov has spent Ts of $s as part of its efforts to blunt the impact of the virus.  More than 108K in the US have died from Covid-19 & more than 1.8M cases have been counted.  Although hot spots like New York City have been posting steady declines in new cases & hospitalizations, US cases have been on a gradual rise since Memorial Day.  “We’re going to do whatever it takes to get the American people through this pandemic, and we’ve done that and we’ll continue to do that for families and small businesses, particularly businesses that have been severely impacted in our inner cities,” Pence said.

Coronavirus relief talks to continue ‘in good faith’ after blowout jobs report, Pence says

Coronavirus cases in the US have been slowly ticking up since the Memorial Day holiday, according analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.  New cases hit a peak of 31.6K, based on a 7-day average, on Apr 10 before steadily falling to an 8-week low of  just over 20.6K a day on May 28 — & have been rising ever since.  New cases in the US have risen over the last 3 days with a 7-day average of 21.7K new cases reported Wed.  Research shows that it can take anywhere from 5 to 12 days for people to show symptoms from the coronavirus, which may explain why US cases are only just now starting to rise after several states reopened beaches & relaxed social distancing rules over Memorial Day, which fell on May 25.  The virus, however, can spread a lot earlier than that & can even be passed along by people who don't have any symptoms, according to the World Health Organization.  Covid-19 patients who develop symptoms are contagious for 1-3 days before showing any signs of sickness.  The coronavirus, which emerged about 5 months ago, has sickened more than 1.8M & killed at least 107K in the UK.  While cases are slowing in hot spots such as New York state, cases are on the rise in places like Florida, Texas & Arizona that removed shelter-in-place orders much earlier.   Yesterday, Florida reported 1419 new coronavirus cases, its biggest single-day increase, according to state health data.  Florida now has more than 60K cases.

U.S. coronavirus cases have been slowly ticking up since Memorial Day

With today's surge, the Dow is about 2300 below its Feb record & NAZ is essentially at its Feb record.  In all fairness, a  ton of problems in the economy need to  be repaired starting with the number or jobs & businesses that have been lost forever.  For the time being, investors are enjoying the 50% rally for the Dow from its recent low.

Dow Jones Industrials








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