Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Markets surge on signs the economy may be near bottom

Dow jumped 527 (near session highs), advancers over decliners 4-1 & NAZ climbed 74 (close to record highs in Feb)  The MLP index added 4+ to 152 & the REIT index shot up 11+ to the 361s.  Junk bond funds continued strong & Treasuries retreated.  Oil rose to the 37s & gold sank 34 to 1699 while stocks were being purchased (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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The US Commerce Dept said that new restrictions on 33 Chinese firms & institutions it announced last month will take effect Fri.  The agency has added the companies & institutions to an economic blacklist, accusing them of helping China spy on its minority Muslim Uighur population in Xinjiang or because of alleged ties to weapons of mass destruction & China’s military.  China's foreign ministry said last month it deplored & firmly opposed US sanctions over Xinjiang, calling it a purely internal affair for China.  The move will restrict the sales of US goods to the companies & institutions on the list, as well as certain items made abroad with US content or technology.  Companies can apply for licenses to make the sales, but they must overcome a presumption of denial.  7 companies & 2 institutions were listed for being “complicit in human rights violations & abuses committed in China's campaign of repression, mass arbitrary detention, forced labor & high-technology surveillance against Uighurs” & others, the Commerce Dept said.  2 dozen other companies, gov institutions & commercial organizations were added over US allegations that they supported procurement of items for use by the Chinese military.  The blacklisted companies focus on artificial intelligence & facial recognition, markets in which US chip companies have been heavily investing.  The new listings follow a similar Oct 2019 action, when the Dept of Commerce added 28 Chinese public security bureaus and companies - including some of China's top artificial intelligence startups & video surveillance company Hikvision - to a US trade blacklist.  The actions follow the same blueprint used by DC in its attempt to limit the influence of Huawei Technologies for what it says are national security reasons.  Last month, the Dept of Commerce took action to try to further cut off Huawei’s access to US chipmakers.

US hits 33 Chinese firms, institutions with new trade restrictions


Campbell Soups (CPB) sales rose for Q3 as the company's canned food & snacks have flown off the shelves in recent months amid the Covid-19 pandemic.  The company posted sales of $2.24B for the fiscal Q3, up 15% from the comparable period last year.  The forecast was for $2.19B.  Organic sales, which exclude the effect from the sale of the company's European chips business, rose 17%.  Soup sales in the US rose 35% for the qtr, driving sales of meals & beverages up 20%.  As customers ate at home amid shelter-in-place measures, they also stockpiled on Pepperidge Farm cookies & Goldfish crackers, for which CPB faced supply-chain issues.  That drove its snacks segment to grow 9%.  Other snack products include Kettle Brand & Cape Cod potato chips & Snyder's of Hanover pretzels.  CEO Mark Clouse said the company's household penetration rose more than 6 percentage points from the same qtr last year.  "In the quarter, we experienced unprecedented broad-based demand across our brands as consumers sought food that delivered comfort, quality and value," Clouse said.  The boost in snacks & canned-goods consumption helped CPG accomplish its goal of getting customers to stock up on its iconic red-&-white cans of soup.  CPG & other big food makers have been trying to adapt to changing tastes after they lost customers to more health-conscious, artisanal brands.  EPS for the period thru Apr rose to 55¢ from 28¢ last year.  Adjusted EPS was 83¢, ahead of the 74¢ estimate.  The stock fell 3.21.
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Campbell Soup sales surge as consumers stock up during pandemic


The Trump administration is banning Chinese passenger airlines from flying scheduled service to the US starting later this month, a move aimed at ramping up pressure on China, which hasn't allowed US carriers to resume flights there & threatens to further isolate the world's 2 largest aviation markets from one another.  The order takes effect Jun 16, but it could be moved up.  The issue comes amid rising tensions between DC & Beijing.  The dispute is also a departure from the type of bilateral agreements that the US gov has pursued for decades that aim to make it easier for airlines to expand to intl airports without onerous government approvals.  The US does not have an Open Skies agreement with China.  The order affects Air China, China Eastern, China Southern & Xiamen.  The measure does not affect flights from Hong Kong.“Our overriding goal is not the perpetuation of this situation, but rather an improved environment wherein the carriers of both parties will be able to exercise fully their bilateral rights,” said the Dept of Transportation.  “Should the [Chinese aviation authority] adjust its policies to bring about the necessary improved situation for U.S. carriers, the Department is fully prepared to revisit the action it has announced in this order.”  In Mar, Chinese aviation officials said airlines from that country could keep flying one scheduled passenger flight a week, on one route to any country, a measure aimed at preventing the spread of the coronavirus.

Trump administration bans Chinese passenger carriers from flying to U.S.

Gold prices ended at their lowest in more than 3 weeks, unable to find traction as demand for equities picked up & data showing smaller-than-expected job losses in the US private sector dulled haven-related demand for the precious metal.  Gold for Aug lost $29 (1.7%) to settle at $1704 an ounce, with the most-active contract registering a 3rd straight session decline.  Prices posted the lowest finish since May 11.  US benchmark stock indices, which have climbed back to early Mar levels on optimism over efforts to reopen the economy, moved higher dealings.  Gold has failed to find much in the way of traditional haven support despite incidents of civil unrest across the country.  Alongside peaceful demonstrations against police brutality, incidents of looting & arson have occurred.  Gains in the stock market followed data from Automatic Data Processing, which showed the private sector shed 2.76M jobs in May.  That was well below forecasts which called for a loss of 8.66M.  In Apr, the private sector shed 19.6M jobs.

Gold prices end at lowest in over 3 weeks as investors snap up stocks

Oil futures closed higher, extending a move around the highest level since early Mar, as uncertainty over whether a meeting of crude producers will be held this week or next raised doubts about a willingness to substantially extend global production cuts that taper after Jun.  Weekly declines in US crude stockpiles & supplies at the Cushing, Okla. storage hub reported by the Energy Information Administration offered little support to oil prices, as petroleum product inventories climbed.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Jul tacked on 48¢ (1.3%) to settle at $37.29 a barrel after surging 3.9% yesterday.  Global benchmark Brent saw its Aug contract rise 22¢ (0.6%) to end at $39.79 a barrel after gaining 3.3% in the prior session.  Prices for WTI & Brent crude marked their highest since Mar 6.  A report said that Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached a preliminary agreement to extend existing cuts by one month.  The reductions had been set to taper down to 7.7M barrels starting in Jul.

Oil prices finish at highest in 3 months as traders await next move for OPEC+, digest U.S. supply data

Buyers started the day bidding prices & kept pushing prices all day.  Meanwhile US-China trade relations are on a rocky road & civil unrest continues in the US, although at reduced levels.  The NAZ is flirting with record levels while the Dow is also closing in on its record highs.  The bulls are in command of this market.

Dow Jones Industrials








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