Markets rise despite states slow reopening plans as visrus cases climb

Dow soared 580, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ shot up 116.  The MLP index was off a fraction to 130 & the REIT index rose 5+ to the 341s.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries showed little movement.  Oil went up 1 to the 39s & gold added 2 to 1782 (more on both below).

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Nearly ½ of the population is still out of a job showing just how far the US labor market has to heal in the wake of the coronavirus.   The employment-population ratio — the number of employed people as a percentage of the US adult population — plunged to 52.8% in May, meaning 47.2% of Americans are jobless, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics.  As the coronavirus-induced shutdowns tore thru the labor market, the share of population employed dropped sharply from a recent high of 61.2% in Jan, farther away from a post-war record of 64.7% in 2000.  This ratio is a broader look at the employment picture.  It takes into account adults not in the labor force & captures those who were discouraged about the prospects of finding a job, whereas the unemployment rate looks at people actively looking for a job.  Investors will look to this week's Jun jobs report for an update on the pace of the labor market recovery.  The forecast calls for nonfarm payroll to increase 3.15M in Jun, after a shocking surge of 2.5M in May, the biggest jobs increase ever in a single month.  Meanwhile, the jobless rate is expected to decline to 12.4% this month from 13.3% in May.  The unemployment rate doesn't capture those who stopped looking for a job.  The labor force is about 60% of the US adult population.  After the unexpected snap-back in May, there have been signs of a slowdown in the labor-market improvement as fears of a coronavirus resurgence deepened in recent weeks.  The number of Americans filing for unemployment claims came in higher than expevcted for the past 2 weeks straight.  States including Texas & Florida have paused plans for further reopening amid a record spike in coronavirus cases.  The number of new daily Covid-19 cases across the nation jumped 42% over the past week to an average of 38K yesterday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Nearly half the U.S. population is without a job, showing how far the labor recovery has to go

Governors in Washington, California, Florida & Texas are walking back some of their reopening plans as coronavirus cases rise in more than 30 states across the US, according analysis of Johns Hopkins University data.   Yesterday, new Covid-19 cases jumped by at least 5% over the previous week in 37 states across the country, based on a 7-day moving average, according to the Johns Hopkins data.  Those states include California, Florida, Louisiana, Texas & Nevada.  The number of new daily Covid-19 cases across the nation jumped 42% over the past week to an average of 38K yesterday, based on a 7-day moving average.  The number of global Covid-19 cases topped 10M on Sun, with the US reporting roughly ¼ of the cases.  The coronavirus has now killed more than ½M across the globe.  Public health officials are also closely watching hospitalizations, which can indicate how severe an outbreak is in an area.  This data generally lags new cases because it can take weeks before a patient is sick enough to require hospitalization.  Covid-19 hospitalizations were growing in 20 states yesterday.  On Sun, California Gov Gavin Newsom ordered the state's bars to close in several counties as the coronavirus shows signs of accelerating, including in Los Angeles.  The state's 7-day average of new Covid-19 cases increased by more than 40% compared with a week ago, according to Johns Hopkins data.  “COVID-19 is still circulating in California, and in some parts of the state, growing stronger,” Newsom said.  “That’s why it is critical we take this step to limit the spread of the virus in the counties that are seeing the biggest increases.”  Newsom has left it to municipalities within the state to decide whether they’re prepared to reopen certain parts of their economy after more rural counties reported few Covid-19 cases.  On Sat, Washington state Gov Jay Inslee also postponed reopening in 8 of the state’s 39 counties that were planning to move forward.  “Rising cases across the state and concerns about continued spread of the COVID virus have made Phase 4, which would essentially mean no restrictions, impossible at this time,” according to the state's order from Inslee & John Wiesman, Washington's secretary of health.  On Fri, Texas Gov Greg Abbott announced he would roll back some of the state's reopening plans, closing bars & reducing the capacity for indoor dining, among other modifications and closures.  The Florida Dept of Business & Professional Regulation, also announced Fri that the state is ending onsite consumption at bars.  Gov Ron DeSantis allowed bars to reopen with modifications in early Jun after keeping them closed for 2 months.

More states reverse or slow reopening plans as coronavirus cases climb

Gold futures ended higher as evidence of a rapid spread in coronavirus cases supported buying the haven metal to start the week, but investor worries over industrial demand.  The death toll from the coronavirus pandemic surpassed 500K & infections topped 10M over the weekend, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University researchers. Health & Human Services Secretary Alex Azar warned yesterday that “the window is closing” for the US to take action to curb the virus, as he predicted rising deaths & hospitalizations in the next couple of weeks.  Against the backdrop, Aug gold rose 1 to settle at $1781 an ounce.  Early last week, gold touched its highest level since 2012 as infections of COVID-19 accelerated.  YYD, prices based on the most-active contracts traded about 17% higher.

Gold futures end higher, but silver declines as investors eye impact of COVID-19’s rapid spread

Oil futures finished higher, buoyed by some recovery in energy demand, even with that recovery threatened by the possibility of another round of shutdowns as global cases of COVID-19 top 10M.  The market saw upbeat economic data over the weekend from China, the world's biggest importer of crude.  Industrial profits in China for May were up 6% from a year earlier, representing the first increase in 2020, official statistics released over the weekend showed.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Aug rose $1.21 (3.1%) to settle at $39.70 a barrel following a 3.4% weekly decline for WTI put on Fri.  Global benchmark Brent oil for Aug climbed 69¢ (1.7%) at $41.71 a barrel after notching a weekly decline of 2.8% on Fri, based on the most-active contract settlements (the Aug contract expires tomorrow).  Worries about the need to re-implement efforts to prevent the pandemic’s spread & the likelihood that the moves would slow the recovery in oil demand, have climbed along with cases of the illness.

Oil prices end higher as hope for increased demand overshadows coronavirus-induced uncertainty

Buyers were out in force today, bringing the Dow back into the black for Jun.  However the news about increasing cases for the virus must be disturbing for investors.  Gold continues rising & may be heading for a new record shortly, not a healthy sign for the stock market.

Dow Jones Industrials