Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Mixed markets in final day of trading in the quarter

Dow went up 62, advancers slightly ahead of decliners & NAZ gained 87 (but under 10K).  The MLP index was off a fraction to the 129s & the REIT index added 3+ to the 345s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries saw modest purchasing.  Oil  slid lower in the 39s & gold  jumped 15 to 1796, a new multi year high.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil39.40
 -0.30 -0.8%

GC=FGold   1,788.70
+7.50+0.4%






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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said big questions remain over the outlook for the economy, particularly in light of ongoing efforts to contain the coronavirus pandemic.
In remarks he will deliver today to the House Financial Services Committee, the central bank leader turned up concerns he had expressed earlier this month about growth as the US remains mired in a  recession that began in Feb.  “Output and employment remain far below their pre-pandemic levels. The path forward for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus,” Powell said.  “A full recovery is unlikely until people are confident that it is safe to reengage in a broad range of activities,” he added.  “The path forward will also depend on the policy actions taken at all levels of government to provide relief and to support the recovery for as long as needed.”  His remarks come amid a national spike in coronavirus cases rooted in states that have more aggressively relaxed restrictions implemented to contain the pandemic.  Powell stressed the importance of building on recent momentum, which he said will be predicated on the path of the virus.  “Many businesses are opening their doors, hiring is picking up, and spending is increasing. Employment moved higher, and consumer spending rebounded strongly in May,” he said.  “We have entered an important new phase and have done so sooner than expected. While this bounceback in economic activity is welcome, it also presents new challenges — notably, the need to keep the virus in check.”  In response to the pandemic, the Fed has implemented a variety of programs aimed at keeping markets functioning & directly lending where it is needed.  The Fed also has cut its benchmark short-term lending rate to near zero, where Powell pledged to keep it until the economy recovers.  “In March, we lowered our policy interest rate to near zero, and we expect to maintain interest rates at this level until we are confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals,” he said.  “We will closely monitor developments and are prepared to adjust our plans as appropriate to support our goals.”

Powell says path is ‘extraordinarily uncertain’ amid efforts to control virus

Consumer confidence rose more than expected in Jun as the US loosened stay-at-home & quarantine restrictions, raising hope for an economic recovery, according to data released Tues.  The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 98.1 for the month.  The forecast called for consumer confidence to rise to 91 from a May reading of 85.9.  “The re-opening of the economy and relative improvement in unemployment claims helped improve consumers’ assessment of current conditions,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. Franco noted, however, “the Present Situation Index suggests that economic conditions remain weak. Looking ahead, consumers are less pessimistic about the short-term outlook, but do not foresee a significant pickup in economic activity.”  “Faced with an uncertain and uneven path to recovery, and a potential COVID-19 resurgence, it’s too soon to say that consumers have turned the corner and are ready to begin spending at pre-pandemic levels,” said Franco.  The Board’s present situation index rose to 86.2 from 68.4 while the short-term outlook among consumers also improved.  States across the country have ramped up efforts to reopen the economy by easing social distancing measures aimed at curbing the coronavirus pandemic.  This not only increased confidence among consumers, but sent stock prices flying.  However, some states have had to roll back reopening efforts as coronavirus cases increased once again.

U.S. consumer confidence for June jumps more than expected

The US is ending its special treatment of Hong Kong as separate from mainland China, with both the State & Commerce depts announcing actions that will pare back its special status.  This comes after Beijing ushered a sweeping national security law thru its rubber-stamp parliament last month that will drastically increase mainland China's control of Hong Kong.  Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the US is taking back some trade benefits it affords Hong Kong by suspending the availability of export license exceptions.  He said further actions are also being evaluated.  “With the Chinese Communist Party’s imposition of new security measures on Hong Kong, the risk that sensitive U.S. technology will be diverted to the People’s Liberation Army or Ministry of State Security has increased, all while undermining the territory’s autonomy,” Ross said.  “Those are risks the U.S. refuses to accept and have resulted in the revocation of Hong Kong’s special status.”  Secretary of State Mike Pompeo separately announced that the US is ending exports of US-origin defense equipment & will impose new restrictions on dual-use technologies.  “The United States Government has taken action to ensure that the Chinese Communist Party’s decision to enact new draconian 'national security' legislation for Hong Kong does not result in diversion of munitions and sensitive dual-use items to the People’s Republic of China," the State Dept said.  When the British handed control of Hong Kong back to mainland China in 1997, it did so with a “One country, two systems”  arrangement in place that makes Hong Kong semi-autonomous.  America's special treatment of Hong Kong has always depended on Beijing abiding by this system, but the massive pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong for the past year roiled Chinese Pres Xi Jinping's communist gov.  Now the US is ending that special treatment after Beijing ushered a sweeping anti-sedition law thru its National People's Congress last month that critics say will essentially put an end to Hong Kong's autonomy.  “Hong Kong as we know it is finally dead,” Claudia Mo, an opposition lawmaker in Hong Kong, said.  “This is the start of a new but sad chapter for Hong Kong.”

US ending special treatment of Hong Kong amid tensions with Beijing


Tech stocks are seeing some buying, but the rest of the market is drifting.  The coronavirus is spreading around the US & that is dampening desire for investors to buy stocks.  Trade issues with Hong Kong are not well understood in America, but this is a very big story!   A lot of Chinese trade goes thru Hong Kong.  Gold remains in demand & investors are getting ready to take it to new records, about 100 away.

Dow Jones Industrials








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