Monday, June 1, 2020

Markets rise on early signs of US economic recovery

Dow gained 91, advancers over decliners better than 3-1 & NAZ climbed 62.  The MLP index slid to the 14es & the REIT index jumped 9+ to the 349s.  Junk bond funds were purchased all day & Treasuries went up in price.  Oil finished higher in the 35s & gold was flattish at 1751 (more on both below).

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China has ordered major Chinese buyers to halt purchases of some US agriculture products amid heightened tensions with the US over Hong Kong.  State-owned agricultural buyers Cofco & Sinograin were told to stop buying US soybeans, pork & other goods.  Private companies have not been told to pause their buys.  The move comes after Pres Trump announced Fri his administration would take action to punish Beijing for passing a national security bill that bypassed Hong Kong's legislature, effectively ending the “one country, two systems” governing principle that was guaranteed for the 50 years following Great Britain's 1997 handover to China.  Trump directed his administration to “begin the process of eliminating policy exemptions that give Hong Kong different and special treatment” including agreements with Hong Kong on extradition, export controls on dual-use technologies & more.  The pres also instructed his working group on financial markets to “study the differing practices of Chinese companies listed on the US financial markets with the goal of protecting American investors.”  Firms from China, & elsewhere, listed on US exchanges do not have to follow the same accounting standards as American companies.  Beijing's agriculture purchases, which must total $50B under the partial trade deal, have gotten off to a slow start due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which originated in Wuhan, China.  US customs data showed Beijing had purchased $3.1B of US agricultural products in the 3 months thru Mar.  China's data showed those purchases totaled $5B.  The phase one trade deal signed in Jan calls for Beijing to buy an additional $200B of US goods over the next 2 years, including $50B of agricultural products.  The deal also says China must halt intellectual property theft, refrain from currency manipulation & cooperate in financial services.  The US, for its part, reduced tariffs on some Chinese goods, but kept duties on $375B worth of products.

China to halt some US purchases, putting trade deal in jeopardy


Eli Lilly (LLY) said it began the world’s first human trial of a potential antibody treatment for the novel coronavirus.  LLY said its early-stage study is designed to determine the treatment's effectiveness on patients hospitalized with COVID-19.  The experimental drug is derived from a blood sample taken from one of the first American patients who recovered from COVID-19.  The initial study will have about 40 patients, CEO David Ricks said.  Results are expected by the end of Jun.  “We take the very best one or two antibodies, and we scale them up and make them into a medicine,” Rick said.  “A very potent medicine. We’ve already initiated the process to begin production. We could have 100,000 or more doses available this fall.”  “We also want to study the medicine before people get to the hospital,” he added.  “And perhaps even a bigger study in what we would call prophylactics, prevention for those patients who are most at risk with compromised immune systems, maybe cancer therapy, or the elderly. This is an important bridge therapy until a vaccination could arrive.”  The treatment, LY-CoV555, has been developed through LLY's collaboration with AbCellera Biologics, a privately held company that LLY partnered with in Mar.  Globally, there are about a dozen vaccine candidates in the first stages of testing or about to begin.   The stock lost 46¢.
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Eli Lilly begins human test of potential coronavirus antibody treatment


Las Vegas is getting ready to launch a “Welcome Back” ad campaign to encourage visitors to come.  But now guests will have to weigh not only the risks of coronavirus but also of civil unrest.  Thurs is the scheduled reopening for Nevada's casinos, but over the weekend, the National Guard was called up to respond to riots in Reno, & the mayor declared a citywide emergency.  In Las Vegas, squads of police shot rubber bullets at protestors & released tear gas on the Strip.  The protests & unrest have the potential to disrupt what had been a surprisingly strong response to the scheduled reopening.  Last week, Caesars Entertainment (CZR) said demand for reservations was so strong, the company decided to reopen a 3rd property, adding Harrah’s to Caesars Palace & the Flamingo. MGM also added MGM Grand to its planned reopening list that already included Bellagio & New York New York.  The same is true in Missouri, where the planned reopening of casinos is continuing today.  Eldorado Resorts (ERI) is opening 5 casinos today in Missouri & Iowa, including Lumiere Place Casino & Hotels near the iconic St Louis Arch.  Over the weekend in & around that city, protests turned violent, with a man killed after being dragged by a Fedex (FDX) truck.  The same is true in Missouri, where the planned reopening of casinos is continuing today.  ERI is opening 5 casinos today in Missouri & Iowa, including Lumiere Place Casino & Hotels near the iconic St Louis Arch.

Protests may derail what was expected to be a strong reopening for Las Vegas casinos

A private survey showed manufacturing activity in China expanded for the month of May.  The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index came in at 50.7 for May.  PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below that level signal contraction.  The forecast expected the May PMI number to come in at 49.6 compared to the Apr reading of 49.4.  Data suggested that production recovered faster than demand & the rate of expansion for output was at its fastest since 2011.  Meanwhile, demand was subdued with total new work falling in May.  “May data signalled a further increase in output following February’s record decline, with firms widely mentioning the resumption of works due to an easing of COVID-19 related measures,” Caixin & IHS Markit said.  “Data indicated that the fall was largely driven by weaker external demand, as many nations faced strict measures to stop the spread of the pandemic including company closures, leading new export orders to contract at a historically sharp rate,” they continued.  Yesterday China posted the official manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index which came in at 50.6, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.  This was compared to 50.8 in Apr.  The Caixin/Markit survey features a bigger mix of small- & medium-sized firms.  In comparison, the official PMI survey typically polls a large proportion of big businesses & state-owned companies.   It's not just external demand that is dragging on China's economy.  Weak labor market conditions are likely to hold back recovery in Chinese consumer spending.

A private survey shows China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in May

Gold prices settled with a modest loss as investors weighed demand for the precious metal against a backdrop of nationwide protests following the death of a black man in Minneapolis police custody, the latest developments tied to US-China tensions over Hong Kong & some data that point to an improvement in the economy.  Gold for Aug fell $1 to settle at $1750 an ounce.  The most-active contract traded between a low of $1737 & a high of $1761.  Civil unrest erupted across major cities from Los Angeles to New York as anger over the death in police custody of George Floyd last Mon sparked demonstrations.  A Minneapolis police officer, Derek Chauvin, was captured on video driving his knee onto Floyd's neck until the handcuffed man lost consciousness & later died.  For now, the US economy, however, has shown some signs of recovery as COVID-19 lockdowns in the country because to ease.  The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index climbed to 43.1 last month from an 11-year low of 41.5 in Apr, while the Commerce Dept reported that spending for US construction projects dropped a smaller than expected 2.9% in Apr.

Gold prices end slightly lower as investors eye U.S. unrest and tensions with China

US benchmark oil futures settled lower, as Beijing-DC tensions raised concerns over the prospects for crude demand.  Global benchmark oil prices, however, finished higher on the heels of a report that major oil producers may meet earlier than previously planned & discuss an extension to current crude output cuts.  Russia & members of OPEC & allies (OPEC) were moving toward an agreement to extend current output cuts by one or 2 months, accordion to leakers.  The report comes ahead of a meeting of OPEC and its allies, which could occur Thurs, instead of a previously scheduled Jun 9-10.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Jul lost 5¢ to settle at $35.44 a barrel.  Front-month US benchmark WTI futures rose 88.4% for May, for its best month on record, based on data going back to 1983.  Global benchmark Brent saw its Aug contract edge up 48¢ (1.3%) to $38.32 a barrel.  The Jul contract expired on May 31.  Front-month prices for Brent rose 39.8% for the month, which was the strongest monthly rise since 1999.  Back in Apr, OPEC & its allies forged a historic pact to reduce global output by 9.7M barrels per day, but those cuts, which began in May, are scheduled to terminate at the end of Jun.  A combination of world-wide output cuts and some brewing optimism about demand for crude have helped boost crude prices from lows as business lockdowns caused by measures to curb the spread of the novel strain of coronavirus recede.  However, investors continue to watch strained relations between the US & China.  A report said that Beijing has halted some imports of US soybeans, potentially adding to Sino-American friction, which could add pressure on crude prices if it results in an erosion of the hard-won, phase-one trade agreement.  Tensions between the 2 nations have climbed again in recent weeks with US officials expressing anger over how China handled the coronavirus outbreak & Pres Trump on Fri saying he would end the special status of Hong Kong, due to China's imposition of national-security laws.  Meanwhile, violent unrest among major cities in the US, sparked by the death of George Floyd in police custody, has added to uncertainty in the financial markets.

U.S. oil prices end lower on U.S.-China tensions, but global prices gain on talk of extension to OPEC+ output cuts

This was a very tough day for the country, but the stock market held up well.  Dark clouds from civil unrest & faltering US-China economic relations are extremely disturbing.  But investors are more impressed by early signs of a recovering economy.

Dow Jones Industrials








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