Monday, June 1, 2020

Markets edge higher on encouraging manufacturing data

Dow went up 12 after a lower market opening, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ rose 25.  The MLP index added 1+ to the 145s & the REIT index gained 6+ to the 346s.  Junk  bond funds continued climbing & Treasuries were bid higher.  Oil dropped to the 34s & gold was off 1 to 1750.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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CL=FCrude Oil34.89
-0.60-1.7%

GC=FGold   1,745.50
-6.20-0.4%







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As the US erupted in protest over the weekend in response to the police killing of George Floyd, an unarmed black man, health officials are warning that mass gatherings will likely exacerbate the coronavirus outbreak in the most vulnerable communities.  The protests come as schools & businesses across the country have been closed for months in a bid to keep people home & curb the spread of the virus.  The coronavirus has now infected more than 1.7M across the US & killed 105K, according to Johns Hopkins University data.  While some states, including those hardest hit by Covid-19 such as New York & New Jersey, have managed to drive the outbreak into decline,  Minnesota is expanding with hospitalizations on the rise.  City & state officials across the country called for protesters to get tested & continue to practice social distancing.  Maryland Gov Larry Hogan said that there’s “no question” the protests will lead to spread of the virus, but that's the “next step” for officials after quelling the protests & violence.  “If you were out protesting last night, you probably need to go get a Covid test this week,”  Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms said.  “There is still a pandemic in America that’s killing black and brown people at higher numbers.”  States have moved in recent weeks to ease restrictions meant to limit the spread of the virus.  Officials have shown particular willingness to reopen beaches, parks & other outdoor sites and businesses as some research indicates that the virus does not spread as easily outdoors.

Protests across U.S. prompt concerns over exacerbating coronavirus outbreak

Nearly ½ (48.8%) of leading CFOs surveyed in the latest CNBC Global CFO Council Survey say the Covid-19 pandemic will have a “negative” impact on their companies in 2020, while another 39% say it will have a “very negative” impact.  The CFOs who responded to this qtr's survey have grown more certain about the negative outlook for their businesses, & more downbeat about the outlook for the global economy, in the 3 months since last surveyed them.  The CNBC Global CFO Council represents some of the largest public & private companies in the world, collectively managing more than $5T in market value across a wide variety of sectors.  In the Q1 survey, conducted in Mar, 30% of CFOs said it was “too early to know” the impact the pandemic would have on their companies this year.  Now only one of the 41 CFOs surveyed says it’s too early to know, & just 2 think the impact will be positive for their companies, leaving the overwhelming majority facing down a very tough 2020.  41 of the 130 members of the council responded to the survey, which was conducted from May 14–28 (15 from North America, 10 EMEA & 16 APAC).  CFOs' outlook for the global economy has worsened since Mar as well.  On average, CFOs rated the GDP outlook for every region of the world as “declining,” with the exception of Brazil & Latin America, which are viewed as “strongly declining.”  Both regions are currently global hot spots for new infections.  Brazilian Pres Jair Bolsonaro has been criticized for his response to the pandemic. That is the first time since  the survey began that any region has been given the worst possible rating.  The “declining” outlook for the US economy is its worst ever.  Fueling the downbeat view, a majority of CFOs report significant declines in demand for their companies' products or services.  54% of CFOs say their companies have seen a decrease in demand in the US since Apr 1, with most of them calling it a “major decrease.”

 CFOs more negative on economy, expect big coronavirus hit in 2020: Survey

US manufacturing activity eased off an 11-year low in May, the strongest sign yet that the worst of the economic downturn was behind as businesses reopen, though the recovery from the Covid-19 crisis could take years because of high unemployment.  The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity rose to a reading of 43.1 last month from 41.5 in Apr, which was the lowest level since 2009.  A reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 11% of the US economy.  The forecast called for the index rising to 43.0 in May.  The first increase in the ISM index since Jan mirrored improvements in regional manufacturing surveys in May & suggested Apr was the nadir for economic activity.  At least 21.4M jobs were lost been Mar & Apr.  The economy contracted at a 5% annualized rate in Q1, the worst performance since the 2007-09 recession.  GDP is expected to decline at a rate as sharp as 40% in Q2, which would the biggest contraction in output since the depression on the 1930s.  The ISM's forward-looking new orders sub-index increased to a reading of 31.8 in May from 27.1 in Apr, which was the lowest since 2008.  The survey's measure of order backlogs at factories rose to 38.2 last month after plummeting to a reading of 37.8 in Apr.  There was also a slight improvement in the ISM's measure of factory employment, which advanced to a reading of 32.1 in May after plunging to 27.5 in the prior month, which was the lowest since 1949.

U.S. manufacturing activity pulls off 11-year low

Selling dragged the Dow lower at the opening, but cautious buying lifted it modestly into the black.  Current news events are getting the headlines, but economic news & US-China relations get more attention by the traders.  So far, the Dow was able to remain close to its 2+ month highs. & the bulls like to see that.

Dow Jones Industrials

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