Friday, June 19, 2020

Markets drop on increasing coronavirus cases in 27 states

Dow fell 208 with selling in the last hour, decliners over advancers about 2-1 & NAZ added 3 (unable to top 10K).  The MLP index slid fractionally lower in the 147s & the REIT index was 4+ lower to 351.  Junk bond funds were weak & Treasuries fluctuated.  Oil went high in the 39s & gold jumped 23 to 1754, a 2 month high (more on both below).

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Apple (AAPL), a Dow & NAZ stock, will again close some stores because of recent spikes of coronavirus cases around the US.  11 Apple will close in Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina & Arizona starting tomorrow.  Customers who have products in those stores for repair will have the weekend to get their devices back.  All of the stores had been re-opened since AAPL initially closed them in Mar.  “Due to current Covid-19 conditions in some of the communities we serve, we are temporarily closing stores in these areas. We take this step with an abundance of caution as we closely monitor the situation and we look forward to having our teams and customers back as soon as possible,” an AAPL said.  The company previously closed its stores around the world in Mar in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. S tores began to re-open in recent weeks with safety measures including mandatory masking, temperature checks, curb-side pickup in certain regions & service by appointment.  The company said earlier this week that it planned to re-open stores in New York City & that it was aiming for more than 200 US stores to be open by the end of the week.  The stock
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Apple will close stores in states with resurgence of Covid-19 cases

The US reported more than 27K coronavirus cases yesterday as the average number of daily new cases steadily grows compared to recent months of decline.  As of yesterday, the nation's 7-day average of new Covid-19 cases increased more than 15% compared to a week ago, according to Johns Hopkins data.  Cases are growing by 5% or more in 27 states across the US, including Arizona, Texas, California & Oklahoma.  New cases hit a peak of 31.6K, based on a 7-day average, on Apr 10 before steadily falling to an 8-week low in late May.  But the average showed an increase in the last week. Arizona, Florida, California, South Carolina and Texas all reported record-high single-day increases in coronavirus cases yesterday as the states continue to ramp up testing & the virus reaches new communities.  Dr Scott Gottlieb, the former commissioner of the Food & Drug Administration, warned that several states in the South & West are “on the cusp of losing control.” Meanwhile, 17 states & DC have reported declines in cases, including Connecticut, New Jersey & New York, once considered the epicenter of the outbreak in the US.  Coronavirus hospitalizations, like new cases and deaths, are considered a key measure of the outbreak because it helps scientists gauge how severe it may be.  Hospitalizations from Covid-19 were growing in 12 states as of yesterday.  States like Texas have reported record-breaking spikes in hospitalizations, up more than 84% since Memorial Day.  “The possibility that things could flare up again and produce a resurgence of Covid-19 that would be a stress on our health-care system is still very real,” Dr. John Hellerstedt, commissioner of the Texas Department of State Health Services, said Tues.

U.S. coronavirus cases surge by 27,700 in a day as 7-day average jumps 15% from week ago

Gold futures ended higher, building a gain for the week, with haven demand for the precious metal getting a boost as investors grew wary of the rise in COVID-19 cases in China & the US, even as stock benchmarks gain for the week.  Aug gold gained $21 (1.3%) to settle at $1753 an ounce, the highest finish for a most-active contract since mid-May.  Prices ended around 0.9% higher for the week.  The move for precious metals come even as stocks, which tend to move in the opposite direction of gold, moved up for the week.

Gold ends higher to tally a second straight weekly gain

Oil futures settled higher for the session, with US prices up nearly 10% for the week as OPEC members & allies tightened the reins on output cuts and some signs of improvement in the global economy brightened the outlook for energy demand.  The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) which monitors compliance with OPEC output quotas, held a gathering yesterday, saying Iraq & Kazakhstan have already submitted “compensations schedules,” to make up for falling short of their pledges to reduce output.  Other “underperforming participants” will have until Jun 22 to submit their plans to compensate for production above their targeted levels.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Jul, the US benchmark, climbed 91¢ (2.3%) to settle at $39.75 a barrel after tapping a high of $40.50.  Front-month contract prices logged their highest finish since Mar 6.  For the week, they rose 9.6%.  Global benchmark Brent oil for Aug added 68¢ (1.6%) at $42.19 a barrel, for a weekly advance of 8.9%.  Analysts also said that renewed talks about a recovery fund to help Europe's troubled economies & easing Sino-American relations were helping to lift the outlook for crude demand.  EU leaders relaunched negotiations today over a €750B ($840B) recovery fund to revive the eurozone but divisions remain.  A report that China-US trade tensions might be easing also helped to boost crude prices.  A report said that China will increase buying of US soybeans, corn & ethanol in line with a phase one trade deal struck at the start of this year.  Still, there were concerns about a possible resurgence of COVID-19 cases & the effect that would have on global energy demand.  Pandemic-related declines in energy demand pushed US production down from record levels.  The Energy Information Administration on Wed reported that domestic crude output fell 600K barrels per day to 10.5M barrels per day last week.  Data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active US rigs drilling for oil edged down by 10 to 189 this week.  They've posted declines each week since mid-Mar.

Oil tallies a nearly 10% weekly gain as OPEC+ tightens reins on output cuts, global demand outlook improves

It's difficult to read too much in today's trading with quadruple witching & adjustments to market indices.  However growing virus cases in states with large populations are troubling for investors.  The number of new cases is a leading indicator, but not final.  A large majority of those infected will recover.  New hospitalizations are a more important leading indicator & deaths are a lagging indicator.  With NY & NJ showing impressive recovery from their dreary times, it's hard to understand what the data from new states showing higher numbers really means.  And the experts do not have a good track records for making predictions.  For the time being, the "bad numbers" are still "small" relative to the total populations with many Ms of people.  Hopefully they will not show substantial growth.

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