Dow crawled up 6, advancers over decliners about 3-2 & NAZ slid back 20. The MLP index added 1+ to the 153s & the REIT index went up 3+ to the 357s. Junk bond funds fluctuated after recent strength & Treasuries were sold. Oil was off fractionally to the 36s after a recent rally & gold rose 7 to 1712.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Another 1.87M Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, but with all 50 states gradually reopening their economies, the job losses triggered by the coronavirus pandemic & the ensuing lockdown are beginning to slow. The forecast called for 1.8M. The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Dept, which covers the week ended May 30, pushes the 11-week total of losses since states directed residents to stay at home & forced nonessential businesses to roughly 42M, a rate of unemployment unseen since the depression. Still, the report suggests the worst is over for the labor market: It marks the 9th straight weekly decline of Americans seeking jobless benefits since claims peaked at the end of Mar. Combined with a report yesterday from payroll processing firm ADP, which revealed that private employers lost 2.76M jobs in May. While that's well above pre-crisis levels, it was significantly better than the 9M expected. But even as the labor market starts to recover from the virus outbreak, the data indicates that some jobs may be stubbornly slow to return. Continuing claims, the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, saw a gain of 649K over the past week, totaling 21.5M. The 4-week moving average was 22.4M, down 222K from last week's revised average.
The US economy has taken an unprecedented hit & it happened very fast. The coronavirus & its quarantines & stay-at-home local guidelines have led to 40M Ameriucans being out of work & the country's economic growth has plummeted. The recent civil unrest since the death of Geroge Floyd has led to protests, looting & destruction, which will also impact the ability for retailers & restaurants to get back to business. Pres Trump tweeted today the evidence of a comeback is mounting. Stocks have rallied from the Mar lows as the Federal Reserve & Congress have provided stimulus measures. Businesses are starting to reopen, or explore how to do so, as states & cities ease restrictions on public activities. With states easing travel restrictions and mortgage rates at all-time lows, there are growing signs of a resurgence in what only a few months ago had been a hot housing market. Prospective homebuyers flooded back into the market after weeks of sheltering in place. A poll done by the Chamber of Commerce indicated that small businesses are reopening with many seeing things getting back to normal in about 6 months, the time that many say they'll be rehiring. Yesterday's report on private hiring by the payroll company ADP showed job loss in the private sector slowing & weekly jobless claims have been slowly coming down. The gov will release the May employment report tomorrow which is expected to show 8M people lost jobs, but that will be down from the more than 20M reported in Apr.
The US trade deficit surged in Apr as the COVID-19 pandemic upended the global flow of goods & services, pushing exports to a 10-year low. The Commerce Dept said on the trade deficit jumped 16.7% to $49.4B. The forecast was for the trade gap increasing to $49.0B in Apr. Global lockdowns to slow the spread of COVID-19 have severely disrupted the movement of goods & services between countries, leading to sharp contractions in economic activity. GDP in the US declined at a 5.0% annualized rate in Q1, the steepest pace of contraction in output since 2008. In Apr, exports dropped a record 20.5% to $151.3B, the lowest since 2010. Goods exports plunged 25.2% to $95.5B, the lowest since 2009 & exports of motor vehicles & parts fell to $3.8B, the lowest since 1992. Shipments of consumer goods dropped to $10.4B, the lowest since 2006. Travel restrictions weighed on exports of services, which resulted in the surplus on the services account narrowing to $22.4B, the smallest since 2016. Imports dropped a record 13.7% to $200.7B, the lowest since 2010. Goods imports fell 13.6% to $167.4B, the lowest since Nov 2010. The import number has been shrinking as the US waged a trade war with China. A sharp reduction in crude oil imports has also been a factor, with the US becoming an oil exporter last year. The country posted a record $3.2B petroleum surplus in Apr. In Apr, imports of automotive vehicles, parts & engines dropped to $13.3B, the lowest since 2009. Consumer goods imports fell to $43.8B, the lowest since 2013 & petroleum imports declined to $6.1B, the lowest since 1999.
Stocks remain strong with following winds. The NAZ100 reached a new record high while the popular Dow & NAZ are close to setting records even as current economic comes in gloomy. Investors are buying with expectations of a strong rebound in H2. The Labor Secretary said the unemployment rate could be under 10% by year-end. Hopes are high. Now all the economy has to do is deliver. That's less then clear with all the damage that has been done.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 36.78 | -0.51 | -1.4% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,709.30 | +4.50 | +0.3% |
Another 1.87M Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, but with all 50 states gradually reopening their economies, the job losses triggered by the coronavirus pandemic & the ensuing lockdown are beginning to slow. The forecast called for 1.8M. The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Dept, which covers the week ended May 30, pushes the 11-week total of losses since states directed residents to stay at home & forced nonessential businesses to roughly 42M, a rate of unemployment unseen since the depression. Still, the report suggests the worst is over for the labor market: It marks the 9th straight weekly decline of Americans seeking jobless benefits since claims peaked at the end of Mar. Combined with a report yesterday from payroll processing firm ADP, which revealed that private employers lost 2.76M jobs in May. While that's well above pre-crisis levels, it was significantly better than the 9M expected. But even as the labor market starts to recover from the virus outbreak, the data indicates that some jobs may be stubbornly slow to return. Continuing claims, the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, saw a gain of 649K over the past week, totaling 21.5M. The 4-week moving average was 22.4M, down 222K from last week's revised average.
Another 1.87M people file for jobless claims, but there is encouraging news
The US economy has taken an unprecedented hit & it happened very fast. The coronavirus & its quarantines & stay-at-home local guidelines have led to 40M Ameriucans being out of work & the country's economic growth has plummeted. The recent civil unrest since the death of Geroge Floyd has led to protests, looting & destruction, which will also impact the ability for retailers & restaurants to get back to business. Pres Trump tweeted today the evidence of a comeback is mounting. Stocks have rallied from the Mar lows as the Federal Reserve & Congress have provided stimulus measures. Businesses are starting to reopen, or explore how to do so, as states & cities ease restrictions on public activities. With states easing travel restrictions and mortgage rates at all-time lows, there are growing signs of a resurgence in what only a few months ago had been a hot housing market. Prospective homebuyers flooded back into the market after weeks of sheltering in place. A poll done by the Chamber of Commerce indicated that small businesses are reopening with many seeing things getting back to normal in about 6 months, the time that many say they'll be rehiring. Yesterday's report on private hiring by the payroll company ADP showed job loss in the private sector slowing & weekly jobless claims have been slowly coming down. The gov will release the May employment report tomorrow which is expected to show 8M people lost jobs, but that will be down from the more than 20M reported in Apr.
Trump says US economy 'coming back very strongly,' makes this prediction
The US trade deficit surged in Apr as the COVID-19 pandemic upended the global flow of goods & services, pushing exports to a 10-year low. The Commerce Dept said on the trade deficit jumped 16.7% to $49.4B. The forecast was for the trade gap increasing to $49.0B in Apr. Global lockdowns to slow the spread of COVID-19 have severely disrupted the movement of goods & services between countries, leading to sharp contractions in economic activity. GDP in the US declined at a 5.0% annualized rate in Q1, the steepest pace of contraction in output since 2008. In Apr, exports dropped a record 20.5% to $151.3B, the lowest since 2010. Goods exports plunged 25.2% to $95.5B, the lowest since 2009 & exports of motor vehicles & parts fell to $3.8B, the lowest since 1992. Shipments of consumer goods dropped to $10.4B, the lowest since 2006. Travel restrictions weighed on exports of services, which resulted in the surplus on the services account narrowing to $22.4B, the smallest since 2016. Imports dropped a record 13.7% to $200.7B, the lowest since 2010. Goods imports fell 13.6% to $167.4B, the lowest since Nov 2010. The import number has been shrinking as the US waged a trade war with China. A sharp reduction in crude oil imports has also been a factor, with the US becoming an oil exporter last year. The country posted a record $3.2B petroleum surplus in Apr. In Apr, imports of automotive vehicles, parts & engines dropped to $13.3B, the lowest since 2009. Consumer goods imports fell to $43.8B, the lowest since 2013 & petroleum imports declined to $6.1B, the lowest since 1999.
US trade deficit widens as exports hit 10-year low
Stocks remain strong with following winds. The NAZ100 reached a new record high while the popular Dow & NAZ are close to setting records even as current economic comes in gloomy. Investors are buying with expectations of a strong rebound in H2. The Labor Secretary said the unemployment rate could be under 10% by year-end. Hopes are high. Now all the economy has to do is deliver. That's less then clear with all the damage that has been done.
Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment