Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Markets plunge on resurgence of coronavirus cases

Dow tumbled 710, decliners over advancers 8-1 & NAZ sank 222.  The MLP index fell 7 to the 138s & the REIT index dropped 9+ to the 338s.  Junk bond funds were sold & Treasuries remained in demand.  Oil  dropped 2+ to the high 37s & gold slid back 7 to 1774 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




3 Stocks You Should Own Right Now - Click Here!





The US economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic & subsequent lockdown will take "some time," and may depend on the ability of businesses to provide safe workplaces and consumer environments, according to Chicago Federal Reserve Pres Charles Evans.  Evans, while delivering a virtual speech, said that some previously expected trend growth has been permanently lost as a result of the outbreak of the virus.  His forecast assumes that a recent spike in COVID-19 cases, which he said may have been exacerbated by faster-than-expected reopenings, is holding back some economic growth.  Yesterday, 7 states reported new highs for virus hospitalizations: Arizona, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee & Texas.  The number of new coronavirus cases across the country per day has hit more than 26K, up from 21K just 2 weeks ago, data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.  The virus has infected more than 2.3M in the US & killed 121K, the most in the world.  Evans said the economy may not return to pre-crisis levels until there is a treatment or vaccine for COVID-19.  Until then, he said, the nation's recovery hinges on whether businesses are able to provide safe workplaces for employees & environments where consumers feel comfortable.  He echoed Fed Chair Jerome Powell that both the central bank & Congress may need to take additional action to offset the financial & economic pain caused by the virus.  Close to 46M Americans have filed for unemployment benefits since the nation's economy came to a grinding halt, & in the span of 2 months, the jobless rate skyrocketed from a 50-year low to an 80-year high.  The speed & magnitude of job losses are without precedent.  Even after the economic recovery is "well in train."  Evans said policymakers will use their tools to meet their mandate for full employment & stable prices, suggesting that interest rates will remain low for years to come.  In its most recent economic projection, the Fed forecast that rates will remain near zero till at least 2022.

US economic recovery from coronavirus pandemic will take 'some time,' Fed's Evans says


The California Department of Public Health reported its 2nd straight record jump in coronavirus cases as the state joins a handful of others with growing case numbers.   California reported an additional 7K Covid-19 cases since Tues, a 69% increase in 2 days, bringing the state's total to 190K cases, according to the state's health department.  The previous highest day jump was reported yesterday when the state recorded 5K additional new cases.  “We cannot continue to do what we have done over the last number of weeks. Many of us understandably developed a little cabin fever, some I would argue developed a little amnesia, others have frankly taken down their guard,” Gov Gavin Newsom said.  California is one of 30 states where case numbers are growing by 5% or more based on a 7-day average, from data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.  The state's 7-day average of new Covid-19 cases increased nearly 46% compared with a week ago, according to Hopkins data.  While the daily case numbers are growing, Newsom said that the state performed a record number of tests, nearly 96K in the last 24 hours.  The % of tests coming back positive has slightly increased in the last 2 weeks, sitting at 5.1% on a 14-day average.  Research shows that it can take anywhere from 5-12 days for people to show symptoms from the coronavirus, which could delay reporting.  “I want to remind people that we are still in the first wave of this pandemic,” Newsom said.  “I want to remind each and every one of you of the importance and potency and power of your individual decision making.”  Hospitalizations from Covid-19 in California have increased 29% over the last 14 days, totaling 4K as of yesterday.  However, that's still a fraction of the state's total hospital capacity of 74K beds.  Intensive-care unit admissions have increased 18% over the last 2 weeks, Newsom added.  Newsom reminded residents to continue wearing a face covering when in public & ordered all people in the state, with limited exceptions, to wear a mask when in most public places.

California reports more than 7,000 coronavirus cases, biggest daily jump so far

Gold futures finished lower, as the $ strengthened, with the precious metal pulling back a day after their highest finish since 2012, but a retreat in equities amid reports of rising coronavirus cases in many states helped to limit losses for the safe haven asset.  Aug gold fell $6 (0.4%) to settle at $1775 an ounce, after spending the day trading between a low of $1770 & a high of $1796.  It settled yesterday at the highest for a most-active contract since 2012, when prices were $1796.  Prices still trade more than 1% higher this week.

Gold marks first loss in 4 sessions as prices pull back from highest finish in nearly 8 years

Oil prices lost more than 5% as evidence of rising coronavirus cases in many countries raised questions about efforts to restart global economies & US gov data reveal a 3rd straight weekly climb in domestic crude inventories.  The World Health Organization pointed to rising cases of coronavirus in the US, China, Latin America, reigniting worries of a possible 2nd wave of the epidemic.  The IMF also slashed its economic forecast for 2020 to negative 4.9%, saying that the coronavirus pandemic has caused an unprecedented decline in global activity.   West Texas Intermediate crude for Aug fell $2.36 (5.9%) to settle at $38.01 a barrel.  That was the lowest finish for a front-month contract in a week.   Global benchmark Brent oil for Aug declined by $2.32 (5.4%) at $40.31 a barrel, the lowest since Jun 15.  The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude inventories rose for a 3rd week in a row, by 1.4M barrels last week.  That compared with a forecast for a decline of 100K barrels. The American Petroleum Institute reported a climb of 1.7M barrels.  The EIA data also showed crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., storage hub fell by 1M barrels last week, but total domestic oil production climbed by 500K barrels a day to 11M barrels a day.

Oil prices drop over 5% on rise in coronavirus cases and a third straight weekly climb in U.S. supplies

The Dow has fallen to where it was in late May as a growing number of virus cases are getting the attention of investors.  So far the data, while grim, is far below NY.s data.  The number of new hospitalizations in NY is down 94% from the peak & the latest daily death total (a lagging indicator) was 27, far below the record at 800 more than 2 months ago.  But current data has to be watched & market bears keep buying gold, pushing it towards 1800.  The jobless claims report tomorrow will probably be ugly again.

Dow Jones Industrials








No comments: