Monday, June 29, 2020

Markets rise on hopes the virus spikes will ease

Dow  jumped 381, advancers over decliners about 4-1 & NAZ  went up 24.  The MLP index rose 1+ to 132 & the REIT index added 4+ to 340.  Junk bond funds hardly moved in price & Treasuries were a tad lower.  Oil climbed in the 38s & gold gained 5 to 1785, nearing its record highs in 2011.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil38.87
+0.38+1.0%

GC=FGold   1,782.70
+2.40+0.1%






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Govs were stepping up testing & warily considering their next moves  as the number of newly confirmed coronavirus cases surges in many countries.  India reported 20K new cases, while the US confirmed more than 40K new infections for the 3rd straight day.  As infections rise in the northern hemisphere, many govs are stepping up testing & mulling more aggressive moves such as renewed lockdowns to stem fresh outbreaks.  India's 20K new infections was a new daily record.  Several states reimposed partial or full lockdowns after the total number of cases jumped by nearly 100K in one week to 548K.  While some states have tightened precautions, in the worst-affected regions of Maharashtra, which includes India's financial capital, Mumbai, & Delhi, home to the federal capital of New Delhi, most restrictions have been eased, with restaurants, shopping malls & parks reopened, & public buses & shared-ride services back on the roads.  The US reported 43K newly confirmed infections as of Sat, with the total surpassing 2.5M , or about a quarter of all of the more than 10M confirmed cases worldwide, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.  Experts say the actual numbers, both in the US & globally, are likely to be far higher due to the large number of apparently asymptomatic cases & issues with testing.  Beaches were closing & beer was going untapped as Florida, Texas & other states backpedaled on their pandemic reopenings, ordering mandatory use of masks in public places & closing down restaurants & bars in hopes of stemming a resurgence in cases. Nearly 8.3M out of 21M have undergone testing in recent weeks in the Chinese capital after an outbreak centered on a wholesale market.  The country had 12 new cases today, including seven in Beijing, down by more than ½ from the day before, the National Health Commission reported.

Coronavirus testing stepped up as number of new cases surges


Pending home sales spiked a stunning 44.3% in May compared with Apr, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  That is the largest one-month jump in the history of the survey, which dates back to 2001.  It beat expectations of a 15% gain.  Sales were still 5.1% lower compared with May 2019, however.  Pending sales measure signed contracts on existing homes, so it shows that buyers were out shopping during the month of May.  Sales had fallen 22% for the month in April, as the economy shut down to slow the spread of the coronavirus.  “This has been a spectacular recovery for contract signings, and goes to show the resiliency of American consumers and their evergreen desire for homeownership,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist.  “This bounce back also speaks to how the housing sector could lead the way for a broader economic recovery.”  The market, however, still needs more supply, Yun noted.  “Still, more home construction is needed to counter the persistent underproduction of homes over the past decade.”  The supply of existing homes for sale at the end of May was nearly 19% lower annually.  Single-family housing starts in May were not as strong as expected, although building permits, a measure of future construction, did gain some steam.  The supply of homes is still extremely low, but is improving in some markets.  Active listings were up by more than 10% for the month in San Francisco, California, Denver & Colorado Springs, as well as Honolulu.  Buyers came back to the market despite restrictions on open houses in many states.  Real estate agents are offering virtual tours as well as individual tours of empty homes, where buyers can open a lock box & tour the homes themselves.  Some buyers are signing contracts on homes they've never even entered physically.  Rock-bottom mortgage rates are also helping buyers in a market that remains pricey due to high demand.  The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage started May around 3.20%, according to Mortgage News Daily.  By the start of Jun it was falling below 3%.  Sales of newly built homes, which are also measured by signed contracts, jumped nearly 17% in May, compared with Apr & were 13% higher than May 2019, according to the US Census.   Builders have been seeing strong demand from buyers looking to leave densely populated urban areas.  They are also benefiting from the shortage of existing homes for sale.  While the recovery was swift in May, the future is not exactly set, especially given the latest spikes in cases of Covid-19.


Pending home sales spike a record 44.3% in May, as homebuyers rush back into the market

Pres Trump's 2nd-term agenda will include bringing back jobs offshored while his presidential rival Joe Biden was VP, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said.  "This is the jobs president, the greatest jobs president in history," Navarro said.  "This is all about jobs, what that means is all the jobs and supply chain that Joe Biden offshored in his 40 years of failure, we will continue to bring them home."  Trump continues to tout pre-pandemic declines in unemployment among black & Hispanic Americans.  "This election's going to be about jobs, China, law and order with reform," Navarro said.   

Trump's second-term agenda includes bringing back offshored jobs, taking on China: Navarro


The bulls returned bidding prices higher even though the news on the coronavirus front is gloomy.  As of this writing, the Dow is exactly even for Jun & the bulls would like to bring it back into the black when the market closes for Jun tomorrow.

Dow Jones Industrials

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