Friday, October 2, 2020

Markets are unsettled after Trump's Covid test and economic data

Dow fell 134, advancers over decliners about 3-2 & NAZ dropped a very big 251  The MLP index added 1+ to the 108s & the REIT index jumped 5+ to the 359s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were sold.  Oil lost 1+, falling to the high 36s, & gold slid back 6 to 1909 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said today that Pres Trump is experiencing “mild symptoms” of COVID-19 after the pres & first lady Melania Trump tested positive for the novel coronavirus.  “As all of you know the president and the first lady tested positive for COVID-19,” Meadows told reporters at the White House.  “They remain in good spirits.”  “The president does have mild symptoms, and as we look to try to make sure that not only his health and safety and welfare is good, we continue to look at that for all of the American people,” Meadows continued.  Meadows said that the pres “continues, not only to be in good spirits, but very energetic.”  Meadows, though, did not elaborate on the types of symptoms the pres was experiencing, or any potential treatments that his medical team was reviewing.  Meadows also did not share whether the first lady was experiencing symptoms.  Meadows said that he spoke to the pres “a number of times” Fri morning & that he received “the normal five or six things he tells me to do every morning.”  “He is certainly wanting to make sure that we stay engaged,” Meadows said, adding that “it is critically important” for the doctors “to continue to monitor his health and the health of the first lady.”  “They’ll be glad to provide some updates later today as we look at this,” Meadows said, adding that the White House has “a number of contingency plans in place for this.”  The chief of staff went on to tout the president for “staying committed to working very hard on behalf of the American people.”  “His first question to me this morning was, ‘How is the economy doing?’ ‘How are stimulus talks going on Capitol Hill?’” Meadows continued.  Meadows added: “He is going to remain on the job and I am optimistic he will have a very speedy recovery.”  Meanwhile, Meadows said that the White House thought it was “important” to share the news of the Trump's positive COVID-19 test as soon as possible.  “In the early hours of the morning, the minute we got a confirmatory test on the president, we felt it was important to get the news out there at that time,” Meadows said.  “That’s why we sent out the tweet early this morning."  The pres, just before 1 AM, tweeted: “Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately.”  He added: “We will get through this TOGETHER!”  Meanwhile, his physician, Dr Sean P. Conley, confirmed Trump & the first lady's positive COVID-19 tests.  “This evening I received confirmation that both President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump have tested positive for the SARS-coV-2- virus,” Conley said.  “The President and First Lady are both well at this time, and they plan to remain at home within the White House during their convalescence.”  “The White House medical team and I will maintain a vigilant watch, and I appreciate the support provided by some of our country’s greatest medical professionals and institutions,” he continued.  He added: “Rest assured I expected the President to continue carrying out his duties without disruption while recovering, and I will keep you updated on any future developments.”

White House chief of staff details conversation with Trump this morning

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that Pres Trump's coronavirus diagnosis could change the shape of talks toward an evasive stimulus deal.  “This kind of changes the dynamic because here [Republicans] see the reality of what we have been saying all along. This is a vicious virus,” she said, adding that she would pray for Trump's safety.  The House took its last votes of the week today before a planned Oct recess.  Lawmakers could return to pass Covid-19 aid legislation & would get 24 hours of notice before a vote.  During a monthslong tug of war over how much money to inject into pandemic relief, Pelosi has repeatedly argued the GOP does not understand the gravity of the COVID-19 outb.  While she & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin are hundreds of Bs of $s apart on a price tag during last-ditch talks toward an aid agreement, Pelosi said she is “optimistic” about striking a deal.  “We always have to find a path, that is our responsibility to do so, and I believe that we will,” she said.  Pelosi added: “We’ll find our middle ground. We’re legislators. We’ll get the job done.”  Despite the impasse, Pelosi took a significant step today in saying the House could pass a standalone bill to send airlines aid money to help cover payroll.  She said the chamber could also include funds to prevent tens of thousands of looming furloughs as part of the bipartisan plan she hopes to craft with Mnuchin.  Airlines have asked for $25B to cover employee pay as the travel industry suffers.

Trump Covid-19 diagnosis changes dynamic of stimulus talks, Pelosi says

Pfizer (PFE) said CEO Albert Bourla told employees that development for its COVID-19 vaccine would move "at the speed of science" rather than due to political pressure.  PFE & BioNTech (BNTX) have an experimental coronavirus vaccine that is currently in Phase 3 trials.  There are 3 other vaccine candidates in late-stage trials in the US.  However, Pres Trump has repeatedly said that a vaccine may be ready by Nov.  The stock was unchanged.
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Pfizer CEO reportedly tells employees COVID-19 vaccine will move only at ‘speed of science’ and not in service of politics

Gold futures ended lower even though Pres Trump & his wife announced they had contracted the COVID-19 disease & would be quarantining in the White House for days.  The unexpected news comes as the race for the US presidency is heating up.  Dec gold fell $8 (0.5%) to settle at $1907 an ounce, after gaining 1.1% yesterday to finish near a 2-week peak.  For the week, gold saw a weekly gain of 2.2%.   Gold prices fell early today in the immediate wake of US employment data that revealed 661K new jobs in Sep, but hiring was the smallest since businesses reopened from lockdowns imposed to combat the pandemic.  The precious metal then briefly pared some losses shortly after data showed US factory orders rose 0.7% in Aug, up for a 4th straight month, but the increase was below the 0.9% rise expected.

Gold ends lower as markets assess Trump coronavirus news

Oil futures declined, contributing to a 2nd weekly loss for prices as Pres Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis raised further concerns over a slowdown in the economy & energy demand.  Nov West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.67 (4.3%) to settle at $37.05 a barrel.  Front-month contract prices lost roughly 8% for the week

Oil futures post a second weekly loss

With the news about Trump's diagnosis, stocks were sold in the AM.  However the Dow steadied during midday & later buyers were able to keep it around break breakeven while selling continued for NAZ & its tech shares.  Into the close there was more selling.  Over the weekend there will be a lot of analysis on the stock market & where it is going.  More attention will be paid to the economic recovery for the US & the fight against the virus which is stumbling along.

Dow Jones Industrials








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