Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Markets drift lower while waiting for stimulus news

Dow fell 77, decliners over advancers almost 2-1 & NAZ was off 21.  The MLP index slid back 1 to the 116s & the REIT index was off fractionally to 351.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries dipped lower.  Oil dropped 1+ to 40 & gold went up 13 to 1929.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil41.01
  -0.69 -1.7%


















GC=FGold   1,930.90
+15.50+0.8%


















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Coronavirus relief negotiations have entered a "new phase," as  Trump administration officials & Dem leaders look to cut a deal on another round of emergency aid in the next 48 hours, White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said.  "I am optimistic," Meadows said.  "We do share one goal, and that is hopefully to get some kind of deal in the next 48 hours or so."  Over the past 24 hours, Meadows said, negotiations have shifted toward crafting specific language for the legislation, so long as the 2 sides can agree upon a final spending number.  The White House most recently proposed an aid package worth $1.8T — its most expensive offer to-date — but Pres Trump indicated yesterday that he wanted a package with an even bigger price tag than Dems' $2.2T package.  "I can tell you that the negotiations have entered a new phase, which is more on the technical side of trying to get the language right if we can agree upon the numbers," Meadows said.  "We’re still apart. Still a number of issues to work on, but the last 24 hours have moved the ball down the field.”  Dems & Reps sharply disagree over the size & scope of another relief bill & are Bs of $s apart in their proposals, unable to reconcile key policy differences on issues such as a virus testing plan, aid to state &local govs & tax cuts for low- & middle-income families.  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi spoke with the Trump administration's top negotiator, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, for about an hour on both Mon & Tues.  Although a deal was not reached by Pelosi's self-imposed deadline yesterday, her office said they are moving "closer to an agreement" & will speak again today, raising hopes of a broad agreement in the coming days.

Coronavirus deal could come in next 48 hours: White House

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard issued a call for more fiscal support from Congress, saying more stimulus is needed to address a recovery that has left out large parts of the economy.  “The recovery remains highly uncertain and highly uneven — with certain sectors and groups experiencing substantial hardship. These disparities risk holding back the recovery,” Brainard said.  “Further targeted fiscal support will be needed alongside accommodative monetary policy to turn this K-shaped recovery into a broad-based and inclusive recovery,” she added.  The central bank official cited several areas of concern: slowing gains in the jobs market from the 21M positions lost in the early days of the pandemic, tighter financial conditions for small businesses & the likelihood of decreased household spending as previous fiscal aid evaporates.  While she noted that Congress & the Fed did their part to provide support in the initial stages, she said additional fiscal aid is important to address disparities in progress.  A K-shaped recovery refers to a 2-speed economy where gains flow to certain sectors & miss others.  In particular, service-oriented & high-contact businesses like restaurants & airlines have taken a harder blow as social distancing measures continue & restrictions remain in place on some activities.  “Activity in some sectors remains substantially below pre-Covid-19 levels,” Brainard said.  “For instance, airline passenger traffic is still 60 percent below its pre-pandemic level, contributing to the decline in aircraft orders this year, and hotel revenue per available room is only half the level of a year earlier.”   “Continued targeted support to replace lost incomes will be an important factor in determining the strength of the recovery,” Brainard continued.  “Apart from the course of the virus itself, the most significant downside risk to my outlook would be the failure of additional fiscal support to materialize.”  Brainard added that the Fed;s recent adjustments to policy in which it will not raise interest rates even if inflation rises somewhat about the traditional 2% target also will help the economy.

Brainard calls for more stimulus from Congress amid ‘highly uneven’ recovery

Pfizer (PFE) has set up what it is calling its “biggest ever” logistics operation to distribute its Covid-19 vaccine once it receives emergency authorization from regulators.  The pharmaceutical giant has plans to deliver up to 100M doses this year & another 1.3B next year.  The logistics preparation reflects its desire to move as quickly as possible to get vaccine doses into the population once it gets the nod from the Food & Drug Administration.  The possible vaccine is being developed in partnership with German-based BioNTech (BNTX) & is currently in Phase 3 trials.  Data showing whether it is safe & effective might be available as early as the end of this month, setting the company up to apply for an emergency-use authorization by late Nov.  PFE stock was off 35¢.
If you would like to learn more about PFE, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PFE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Pfizer Sets Up “Biggest Ever” Distribution Campaign for Covid-19 Vaccine

The Dow dropped 200 in the last hour & NAZ was hit with selling.  The relief bill looks like it's hitting more headwinds.

Dow Jones Industrials








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