Dow climbed 101, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ went up 99. The MLP index fell 2 to 106 & the REIT index added 1+ to 349. Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries slid lower in price. Oil fell dropped 2+ to the 37s & gold rebounded 18 to 1913.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil |
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| GC=F | Gold |
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The number of Americans applying for state unemployment benefits
inched down last week, indicating the pace of layoffs is still elevated
even as the economy slowly recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. The
latest jobless claims figures from the Labor Dept show that 837K workers sought aid
last week, still about 4-times the pre-crisis level. The forecast called for 850K new claims. Last week"s figure was revised upward by 3K to 873K. The
number of people who are continuing to receive unemployment benefits
fell to 11.7M, a decline of 980K from the previous week. Roughly
1M unemployed Americans have been seeking aid each week for the
past 6 months, when the COVID-19 crisis triggered an unprecedented
shutdown of the nation's economy, pointing to a sluggish turnaround. It's down from the peak of more than 6M claims in late Mar, but
remains well above the 200K reported in Feb. Before the
pandemic, the record high was 695K set in 1982. There's also
an asterisk to the data: California paused processing initial claims for 2 weeks in an effort to clear a backlog & adopt fraud-prevention
technology. This week's report reflects the
level during the last week before the pause & will be adjusted
at a later date.
Another 837,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week
American manufacturers grew in Sep for the 5th month in a row as they reconfigured their factories to cope with the coronavirus & brought back more workers, a closely followed survey showed. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing index slipped to 54.6% in Sep from a 21-month high of 56% in the prior month. Readings over 50% indicate growth. The forecast called for the index to total 56.5%. Although the index fell for the first time since Apr, the tenor of the Sep report was quite positive. New orders & production were strong again & a contraction in employment since the start of the pandemic neared an end. “Manufacturing performed well in the month with demand, consumption and inputs registering growth indicative of a normal expansion cycle,” said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the survey. “While certain industry sectors are experiencing difficulties that will continue in the near term, the manufacturing community as a whole has learned to conduct business effectively and deal with the variables imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic,” he added. 14 of the 18 industries tracked by ISM expanded in Sep. The index for new orders slipped 7.4 points, but it was still quite robust at 60.2%. Ditto for production: The gauge fell 2.3 points to 61%, but any reading over 60 is very vigorous. The sharp rebound in manufacturing shown by the ISM survey suggests the US economy is recovering faster than expected, but business has by no means returned to normal. What the ISM survey is designed to reveal is simply whether business is getting better or worse each month, not how much better. Most manufacturers are still producing fewer goods with fewer workers than they were before the pandemic, & it'll likely be some time before output & employment climb above precrisis levels given depressed demand at home & abroad.
U.S. manufacturers expand for fifth month in a row, ISM finds, but at slower pace
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin will try to scrape together a coronavirus stimulus deal as more trouble spots emerge in the US economic recovery. After the pair met in person yesterday to try to craft a 5th
pandemic relief package, they said they would continue negotiations
toward an agreement. The House, which had aimed to pass a $2.2T
Dem bill yesterday night, delayed a vote until at least today
to allow more time for Pelosi & Mnuchin to hash out a bipartisan plan
that could get thru both chambers of Congress. It is unclear whether the speaker & secretary would huddle in person again. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has opposed the Dem legislation, meaning it likely will not get thru the Rep-led chamber. Pelosi
sounded “frustrated” & “fired up” when talking about the state of the
discussions during a Dem whip conference call, a
source said. The speaker said the GOP does not
“share our values” or want to put what she sees as needed money into
state & local govs & health care, the source added. During
the meeting yesterday, Mnuchin offered a $1.6T proposal — up
from the $1.3T the White House had embraced, including $250B for state & local gov relief,
$400 per week in extra unemployment benefits, $150B for
education, $75B for Covid-19 testing & contact tracing, & $60B for rental & mortgage assistance. The
effort to revive aid discussions follows weeks of pessimism about
Congress' ability to boost the US economy & health-care system
before the election. Lawmakers have not passed new relief funds
in months as Dems & Reps wrestle over how to structure a
package.
Pelosi and Mnuchin take a last-ditch shot at a coronavirus stimulus deal
The economic data was good enough, which is the standard used today. The new stimulus bill is alive, but just barely. Investors are hoping for a good report on new jobs created in the economy in Sep & unemployment data tomorrow. Today they're buying stocks.
Dow Jones Industrials
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