Friday, October 23, 2020

Markets waver on lingering stimulus hopes

Dow lost 9, advancers over decliners about 2-1 & NAZ fell 4.  The MLP index was off 1 to the 121s & the REIT index added 1 to the 351s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were little changed.  Oil was pennies lower, but still above 40, & gold slid back 1 to 1901.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil40.49
 -0.15-0.4%


















GC=FGold   1,907.80
+3.20+0.2%

















The job market shows “very strong trends" amid the coronavirus pandemic, Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia said.  “What we saw was the initial claims, that is the initial filings for unemployment benefits of last week were reported at a number 110,000 fewer than the reported number just a week before. That’s progress,” Scalia added.  He said that “3 million people went off” of unemployment in the month of Sep.  "What we also see is that the continuing claims -- that is people who are actually on unemployment, that number continues to drop significantly week to week," noted Scalia who added, "these are very good trends."  Scalia's comments came after the Labor Dept released the latest jobless claims figures showing that 787K workers sought assistance last week.  The number of Americans seeking jobless aid since the coronavirus shutdown was 65M, making up 40% of the nation's labor force.  Recipients of unemployment benefits dropped to 8.37M.  The jobless claims fell below 800K for the first time since public officials shut down the nation's economy due to the coronavirus pandemic in mid-Mar.  Furthermore, Scalia said that the “more significant report” has been the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly employment report.  “That has shown the job market coming back so much more quickly than was being expected back in April,” Scalia said.  Scalia sees more encouraging data in the BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics which lists 26 states “at 6.7% or below.”  Scalia went on to say while there are "a handful of very large states" with "much higher unemployment," the jobs numbers show "a very, very strong trend" along with "good economic news" including today's existing home sales report.

Job market shows 'very strong trends', US labor secretary says

American Express (AXP), a Dow stock, missed Q3 profit estimates as its customers spent less during the COVID-19 fueled economic slowdown and the financier set aside money for potential payment defaults.  The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered the worst economic downturn in decades & led to mass layoffs, resulting in more people defaulting on their bills & offering more evidence that the economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession is faltering.  The credit card issuer said consolidated loss provisions in the qtr stood at $665M, down 24% from a year earlier.  The reserve levels at the end of the qtr were generally consistent with 2nd-qtr levels.  "While credit remains strong, with delinquencies and net write-offs at the lowest levels we have seen in a few years, we remain cautious about the direction of the pandemic and its impacts on the economy, which is reflected in our reserve levels,"' CEO Stephen Squeri said.  The company reported a slump in EPS to $1.30, missing the estimate of $1.35.  Total revenue, excluding interest expense, fell 20% to $8.8B.  Net income from the global consumer services unit -- which primarily issues a wide range of proprietary consumer cards -- was down about 14% at $855M, reflecting a decline in spending & lower loan volumes.  AXP fell 3.11.
If you would like to learn more about AXP, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AXP?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

AmEx profit lags expectations as consumer spending falters

China has vowed to retaliate if the US proceeds with the sale of advanced weaponry to Taiwan worth more than a B$.  The statement from China's defense ministry gave no specifics, but the development marks a further deterioration in ties between Beijing & DC that have hit their lowest ebb in decades.  The statement demanded the cancellation of the sale & an end to all interactions between the US & Taiwanese militaries in order to “avoid serious repercussions for relations between China and the U.S. and their armed forces and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”   Failure to do so would “compel the Chinese side to fight back resolutely,” the statement said.  The State Dept on Wed announced it had greenlighted the sale of 135 precision land attack missiles, associated equipment & training to Taiwan to improve its defense capabilities.  China regards Taiwan as its own territory to be annexed by force if necessary & the US maintains only unofficial relations with Taipei in deference to Beijing.  However, US law requires the gov to ensure Taiwan can maintain a credible defense & recent years have seen an increase in both the quality & quantity of defensive arms sold to the island.

China vows retaliation if US proceeds with Taiwan arms sale

Stocks seesaw on optimism for a stimulus bill.  Hopes spring eternal although it's difficult to see on any action out of DC before the election, & maybe longer.

Dow Jones Industrials

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