Thursday, October 15, 2020

Markets closed mixed following early selling

Dow was off 19, advancers over decliners 5-4 & NAZ fell 54.  The MLP index crawled higher, going over 120, & the REIT index went up 2 to 357.  Junk bond funds continued weak & Treasuries dipped a little lower.  Oil edged lower under 41 & gold added 3 to 1919 (more on both below).

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell rejected a coronavirus relief deal that costs more than $1.8T, hours after Pres Trump indicated he was "absolutely" willing to raise his spending offer.  Asked whether there can be a compromise between the White House-backed $1.8T proposal & a $2.2T offer put forward by House Dems earlier this month, McConnell pushed back.  “I don’t think so," he said.  "That’s where the administration's willing to go. My members think what we laid out, a half a trillion dollars, highly targeted, is the best way to go."  "What I’m going to put in the floor is what Senate Republicans, 52 out 53 of us, feel like it’s an appropriate response," he added.  "You are correct there were discussions going on between the secretary of the Treasury and the speaker about the higher amount. That’s not what I’m gonna put on the floor.”  McConnell's comments came shortly after Trump said he was considering upping his offer for a coronavirus relief package above the White House's current $1.8T proposal.  "I would," he said.  "Absolutely, I would. I would say more. I would go higher. Go big or go home, I said it yesterday."  “Nancy Pelosi doesn’t want to give anything. She thinks it helps her with the election,” the pres continued.  “And I don’t think so. I think it hurts her with the election because everyone knows she’s holding it up. We’re not holding it up. She’s holding it up.”  The Trump administration's latest proposal -- its largest yet -- drew criticism from both Reps & Dems last week, dimming the odds of another round of emergency & before the election.  It was expected to include a 2nd round of direct payments of up to $1200 for adults & $1000 for children; expanded unemployment benefits at $400 per week & additional funding for state & local govs.  In a weekly letter to Dem colleagues, House Speaker Pelosi said the administration's proposal lacked a “strategic plan to crush the virus” & gave Trump too much power in determining how the funds were spent.  "This proposal amounted to one step forward, two steps back," Pelosi said in the letter.  She later identified a lack of funding for testing as one of the main sticking points in negotiations.  At the same time, several Senate Reps warned there was "no appetite" for a massive spending bill before the Nov election.  Any bill still needs to get thru the Dem-controlled House & the GOP-controlled Senate, where some Reps have expressed concern about another massive spending initiative amid the nation's ballooning deficit, which is projected to hit a record-shattering $3.3T this year, according to the Congressional Budget Office.  McConnell is instead planning a vote on a "targeted" coronavirus relief bill next week, including another round of funding for a key small business rescue program, money for schools, liability protections for businesses & boosted unemployment benefits.  The Rep leader said Congress would have enough time to pass the bill & confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court unless "Democrats block this aid for workers."  Dems previously rejected a $500B "skinny" proposal put forward by Reps over the summer & have pushed back against "piecemeal" legislation.

McConnell rejects Trump's push for 'higher' coronavirus stimulus deal

ECB Pre Christine Lagarde said her organization would be prepared to impose further emergency measures to tackle the economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis, with the region confronting a rapid upsurge of Covid-19 infections.  “We are still in the long grass for the moment and there is still a lot of work to be done, especially as from this corner of the world in Europe, we are seeing recurrences of contagion,” Lagarde said during an IMF World Bank panel.  “We are seeing maybe a second wave on the horizon or hitting the coastline of Europe and we better make sure that all the arsenal that we have available is actually dealing with the situation by adopting the right policies,” Lagarde said, adding that an increase in fiscal spending was “being considered” by many member states as they present their budgets.  “The many weapons that we have available, ranging from interest rates to forward guidance and asset purchase programs, we stand ready. We have done a lot, and if more is needed because the situation deteriorates, then we will do what is necessary.”  Europe has recorded more than 7.4M cases of the coronavirus with 251K related deaths & hospitalizations rising at an alarming rate.

ECB says further economic stimulus on standby amid upsurge of coronavirus cases

Gold futures recovered early losses to finish with a modest gain, as traders favored the precious metal as a haven investment, despite a rise in the $, following the week's decline in gold prices.  Dec gold tacked on $1 to settle at $1908 an ounce after a 0.7% gain yesterday.  Prices today had touched an intraday low of $1892, highlighting fitful trade for bullion on the week.  On the week so far, gold prices have lost 0.9%.  Gold has moved in line with the $'s strength absent other catalysts of late but some longer-term investors believe that a resurgence of the pandemic & the belief that the viral outbreak may lead to further global fiscal stimulus has been considered a boon for bullion.  France announced a new curfew in Paris & other major cities, as UK also introduced restrictions in London.  Meanwhile, European leaders are meeting to discuss the coronavirus pandemic as well as trade talks with the UK with the Brexit transition period expiring at the end of 2020.  Gold prices had initially moved higher after data revealed that the number of Americans who applied for jobless benefits last week rose 53K to 898K–the highest level in 7 weeks.

Gold shifts course to end higher as Europe lockdowns, Brexit worries lift haven demand for the metal

London has joined a raft of other European cities plunged into tighter COVID-19 restrictions, while in Germany there are further controls on gatherings, & nighttime curfews are being implemented in 9 French cities.  Ms of households in London will be banned from mixing indoors with other households on Sat, as European leaders battle to prevent the spread of a second wave of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.  Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, who has been pushing hard for tighter restrictions, warned that the virus was spreading rapidly “in every corner of our city” — a large number of boroughs now has an average of 100 cases per 100K people.  The UK has one of the highest death tolls from the disease in Europe, at 43K, because of the high density of people in its cities & its high level of overweight citizens.

London joins raft of European cities facing tough new restrictions, as leaders battle second COVID-19 wave

Drugstore chain Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, said it expects profit to grow in single digits in 2021 after posting a better-than-expected Q4 profit, helped by higher sales at US pharmacies.  The company expects strong adjusted profit growth in H2 of 2021, as impact of the Covid-19 pandemic subsides, & supported by its recovery plans.  Last qtr, the company suffered a significant decline in footfall in its UK-based retail pharmacies & resorted to store closures, job cuts & suspension of share repurchases.  Same-store sales at the company's retail pharmacy division in the US rose 3.6% from a year earlier.  Excluding items, EPS was $1.02, beating expectations of 96¢.  The stock rose 1.73.
If you would like to learn more about WBA, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/WBA?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7 

Walgreens forecasts 2021 profit growth after fourth-quarter earnings beat

Oil futures settled a bit lower as rising COVID-19 infections led to renewed restrictions on movement in several European countries, raising concerns over a further slowdown in energy demand.  Prices, however, nearly erased their losses for the session after US gov data showed a better-than-expected weekly decline in domestic crude supplies.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Nov fell 8¢ to settle at $40.96 a barrel.  It was trading at $39.75 shortly before the supply data.  The global benchmark, Dec Brent crude shed 16¢ to $43.16 a barrel.  The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude inventories fell by 3.8M barrels last week, following a 500K-barrel increase in the previous week.  The forecast called for a weekly decline of 2.3M barrels, while the American Petroleum Institute yesterday reported a decrease of 5.4M barrels.  The EIA data also showed crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., storage hub edged up by 2.9M barrels for the week.  OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo echoed that message, saying that OPEC+ would move to ensure oil prices don’t fall sharply when it meets late next month.  Barkindo acknowledged a slower-than-expected rebound in oil demand.

Oil ends lower as Europe lockdowns feed demand concerns, but prices nearly erase losses as weekly U.S. supplies drop

Early selling after the weak jobless claims report did not last.  The bulls returned around midday & trimmed losses to near even.  The popular averages continue to be close to their records while the fight against the virus, difficulties opening the economies for many states continues & the stimulus bill is going nowhere fast..

Dow Jones Industrials








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