Monday, October 19, 2020

Mixed markets while investors monitor stimulus talks

Dow was off 23, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ added all of 3.  The MLP index rose 1+ to the 118s & the REIT index fell 1 to the 353s.  Junk bond funds were little changed. & Treasuries drifted lower in price.  Oil climbed above 41 & gold went up 5 to 1911.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
 
stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil40.86
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GC=FGold    1,908.60
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Speaker Nancy Pelosi set a 48-hour deadline for the White House to reach an agreement on a new round of coronavirus stimulus before the election, saying that she is still "hopeful" despite no agreement yet in the package's language.  "The 48 only relates to if we want to get it done before the election, which we do," Pelosi said.  "But we're saying to them, we have to freeze the design on some of these things. Are we going with it or not and what is the language? I'm optimistic because, again, we’ve been back and forth on all of this."  Both Pelosi & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin agreed to Dem language with "minor" edits for a national coronavirus testing plan last Thurs.  However, a Sat update by Pelosi''s deputy chief of staff, Drew Hamill, revealed that both she & Mnuchin have not reached an agreement on language that would ensure the plan would include contact tracing & "additional measures to address the virus’ disproportionate impact on communities of color."  "There remains an array of additional differences as we go provision by provision that must be addressed in a comprehensive manner in the next 48 hours," Hamill added.  "Decisions must be made by the White House in order to demonstrate that the Administration is serious about reaching a bipartisan agreement that provides for Americans with the greatest needs during the pandemic."  While she acknowledged that most of the changes were a "light touch," Pelosi said about 55% of the language for testing & tracing was removed from the plan entirely.  "The tracing part is so important, because communities of color had been disproportionately affected by this," Pelosi added.  "We had pages and pages of how you would do this in the minority community. They crossed it all out."  In terms of reaching a deal before Election Day, Pelosi reaffirmed that any chance of a breakthrough will "depend on the administration."  Pelosi's comments yesterday come as the window of opportunity to pass new stimulus legislation before the election is relatively slim after Dems & Reps objected to the White House's current proposal of $1.8T.  Pres Trump has said that he would be willing to reach a deal above that offer, but accused Pelosi of holding the stimulus up to help Dems in the election.  In the meantime, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says a vote will be held this week on a "targeted" bill, which would include money for schools, liability protection for businesses, & boosted unemployment benefits.  The Treasury Dept spokesperson said that talks between Mnuchin & Pelosi will continue today.

Pelosi sets 48-hour deadline to reach stimulus deal before Election Day

Pres Trump hinted he might intervene if Rep senators don't support a second coronavirus stimulus package worth Ts of $s, during an interview with Charles Benson of WTMJ4 Milwaukee on Sat.  "You have put $1.8 trillion on the table. Will there be more money by Election Day? Do you have a deal?" Benson asked.  Trump replied: "I want the money by tonight, but Nancy Pelosi doesn't want to approve it because she thinks it's good politically for her not to approve it... She wants to bail out poorly run Dem states. And we don't want to do that. I don't think she wants to approve it anyway. I think even if we gave her the money for the poorly run Democrat states, I don't think she'd approve it anyway."  Benson asked if Trump was getting any resistance from GOP senators & the pres said he "will take care of that problem in two minutes."  "If I had something that would be good, I think I could quickly convince the Republicans to do it," he added.  "They're ready to do it, but Nancy Pelosi does not want to do it. I mean, I wish your governor would call up Nancy Pelosi and say, 'do it.' She wants to hold it until after the election and I think it's bad for the Democrats. But I'm ready willing, and able. If they sent a bill over, I am ready, willing, and able. And I wanted a higher number than [Pelosi] wanted."  When pushed for a specific number, all Trump would say is that it would be more than Pelosi's proposal.

Trump ready to step in on stimulus, says Pelosi doesn't want a deal

Atlanta Federal Reesrve Pres Raphael Bostic saidthat he's "concerned" the road to recovery from the coronavirus pandemic may be uneven for different sectors of the US economy.  Though Bostic acknowledged that the US is "recovering and rebounding in a very robust way" in some areas, he warned thatrestaurants, & small businesses in minority & lower-income communities, in particular, are "seeing much more difficult situations."  "[The coronavirus] has put a wedge in our economy. And for all those who have been in more precarious situations, it's made them even more precarious," Bostic said.  "Those that have been in distress are in much more distress, while others are not really feeling that at all. And I think it's important to recognize that whatever people are experiencing, there are a lot of other Americans out there who are struggling and are on the edge."  "Those segments where we're not seeing that recovery, that's really what I'm concerned about as we move forward," he added.  Bostic said he believes that the Federal Reserve can support the Black community & other minority communities that are struggling with racial inequities by being more willing to talk about the situation.  "First of all, we have to acknowledge that there's a problem and we have to be willing to talk about it," Bostic added.  "You know, my institution has for a long time not been willing to be out in front to talk about the importance of racial inequalities. I actually think that that's been a mistake. And what we're seeing is many more of my colleagues jumping up and being willing to talk about this."  In terms of policy action, Bostic believes that the the US needs to create opportunities for better schooling & training & ensure that all Americans have access to capital & can participate in the economy.  Bostic is set to be a voting member of the FOMC in 2021; the FOMC makes key decisions on interest rates & economic growth.  

Atlanta Fed president 'concerned' about uneven economic recovery

The goings on in DC are confusing for everybody.  Both sides are stuck in their ways & it doesn't look like anybody is interested in compromise.  Maybe the status of close elections will get somebody to agree to changes.  Meanwhile the virus keeps fighting back hard, making it difficult for some states to reopen.

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