Wednesday, October 7, 2020

Markets jump as Trump pushes Congress to pass relief bill

Dow soared 422, advancers over declines better than 3-1 & NAZ climbed 156.  The MLP index  was even at 110+ & the REIT index inched up to 360.  Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries declined while stocks were being purchased.  Oil dropped 1+ to the 39s after recent strength & gold tumbled 22 to 1886.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil39.41 
 -1.26-3.1%







GC=FGold   1,887.20
-21.60-1.1%












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Pres Trump called on Congress in a series of tweets to pass additional coronavirus relief measures, reversing course from hours earlier when he announced he was calling off negotiations until after the election.  "The House & Senate should IMMEDIATELY Approve 25 Billion Dollars for Airline Payroll Support, & 135 Billion Dollars for Paycheck Protection Program for Small Business. Both of these will be fully paid for with unused funds from the Cares Act. Have this money. I will sign now!" Trump wrote.  "If I am sent a Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200), they will go out to our great people IMMEDIATELY. I am ready to sign right now. Are you listening Nancy?" he tweeted less than 30 minutes later.  Trump reiterated his openness to sending a fresh round of $1200 checks, calling on Nancy Pelosi to "move fast."  "Move Fast, I Am Waiting To Sign!" he tweeted.  Dems have largely resisted efforts to pass piecemeal relief legislation.  Trump's renewed push for another round of fiscal stimulus came just hours after he abruptly pulled the plug on negotiations, jolting traders which sent stocks tumbling.  “I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill,” Trump tweeted.  The tweet appeared to end the months-long efforts between Pelosi & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to strike a deal.  During the yesterday's call, Mnuchin confirmed that Trump had called off negotiations, according to Pelosi's deputy chief of staff, Drew Hamill.  Pelosi "expressed her disappointment in the president's decision," Hamill said.  Mnuchin & Pelosi spoke again today, during which the secretary inquired about a bailout for the airline industry, according to Hamill.  "The Speaker reminded him that Republicans blocked that bill on Friday & asked him to review the DeFazio bill so that they could have an informed conversation," he tweeted.

Trump pushes Pelosi to pass COVID relief after pulling plug on negotiations

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Pres Neel Kashkari became the latest central banker to warn against not getting more stimulus to the US economy, saying that the cost of doing nothing could be major.  As the impasse in DC intensifies, Kashkari said that workers, businesses & govs need more cash from Congress.  “There are enormous consequences if we just let things go, and the downturn will end up being much worse,” he added.  “If we don’t support people who have lost their jobs, then they can’t pay their bills and then it ripples through the economy and the downturn is much worse than it needs to be.”  Fed officials have been warning about a failure to act.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell yesterday that additional fiscal help is needed & that there was little worry of doing too much.  After Trump's directive, Cleveland Fed Pres Loretta Mester said that a delay in stimulus would mean a “much slower” recovery.  “Whatever assistance can be provided to people who have lost their jobs is important,” Kashkari said.  “Whatever assistance can be provided to small businesses that have been affected by the pandemic is important, and supporting state and local governments, whose revenues have been hammered by the Covid crisis, that also is important, because they employ a lot of people.”  Kashkari added that the nature of the downturn, which was caused solely by the coronavirus pandemic & not because of systemic weakness as during the financial crisis, means there is no particular “moral hazard” in using public money to bail out private industry.

Fed’s Kashkari warns delaying stimulus will have ‘enormous consequences’ 

Mortgage rates moved even lower last week after setting multiple record lows in recent months, spurring more borrowers to call their lenders & apply for a refinance, but homebuyers were not quite as motivated.  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances of up to $510K slipped to 3.01% from 3.05%, while points decreased to 0.37 from 0.52 for loans with a 20% down payment.  In response, refinance application volume, which is most sensitive to weekly rate moves, rose 8% for the week & was 50% higher than a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) seasonally adjusted index.  That is the highest refinance volume since mid-Aug.  Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home fell 2% for the week but were 21% higher than a year ago.  While the annual comparison is strong, purchase volume has been falling little by little & is now down just over 4% from 4 weeks ago.  “There are signs that demand is waning at the entry-level portion of the market because of supply and affordability hurdles, as well as the adverse economic impact the pandemic is having on hourly workers and low- and moderate-income households,” the MBA said.  “As a result, the lower price tiers are seeing slower growth, which is contributing to the rising trend in average loan balances.”  The average loan size increased again, to a record $371K, thanks to stronger activity on the high end of the market. 

Mortgage rates set another record low, sparking new strength in refinances

Investors warmly greeted the news about Trump urging Congress to pass the relief bill by bidding up stock prices.  The big election is approaching & those guys in DC may be motivated to pass another stimulus bill   The Dow has not drifted far from 28K for 2 months.

Dow Jones Industrials








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