Friday, October 23, 2020

Markets fall on concerns about stimulus bill

Dow dropped 28, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ was up 42.  The MLP index was even in the 121s & the REIT index went up 2+ to the 352s.  Junk bond funds hardly budged & Treasuries crawled higher in price.  Oil dropped below 40 after Libya announced it will resume shipping oil & gold was steady ay 1905 (more on both below).

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US business activity increased to a 20-month high in Oct, but the pace of new business growth & new orders eased slightly amid the lingering COVID-19 pandemic & caution ahead of the presidential election.  Data firm IHS Markit said its flash US Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing & services sectors, rose to a reading of 55.5 this month.  That was the highest since Feb 2019 & was up from 54.3 in Sep.  A reading above 50 indicates growth in private sector output.  It said some manufacturers & service industry companies noted the coronavirus crisis had weighed on demand.  The survey found other companies said a number of clients were holding back on placing orders until after the fiercely contested race for the White House.  Growth in foreign client demand also slowed “notably,” with manufacturers reporting a renewed contraction in new export orders, IHS Markit said.  Despite the reported pick-up in business activity, economists are predicting slower economic growth in Q4 after what is believed to have been a record performance in Q3, thanks to a more than $3T rescue package early this year for businesses & the unemployed.  But the fiscal stimulus is gone and new COVID-19 cases are rising around the country, which could lead to state & local gov restrictions or more people shunning establishments like restaurants & bars, & undercut consumer spending.  The survey's flash composite new orders index dipped to 54.3 this month from a reading of 54.8 in Sep.  The survey's flash services sector PMI rose to 56 this month, a 20-month high, from a reading of 54.6 in Sep.  Economists polled  had forecast a reading of 54.6 this month for the services sector, which accounts for more than 2/3 of US economic activity.  A measure of new businesses in the services sector dropped to 54.3 from a reading of 55.0 in Sep & manufacturing was steady this month.  The flash manufacturing PMI inched up to a reading of 53.3 from 53.2 in Sep.  Economists had forecast the index for the sector, which accounts for 11.3% of the economy, rising to 53.4 in Oct.  A measure of new orders received by factories increased to a reading of 54.2 from 53.6 in Sep.

US business activity hits 20-month high: IHS Markit

The US reported more than 72K new coronavirus cases, approaching a record number of daily infections set in late Jul as the outbreak takes root across the Midwest & hospitalizations rise.  Covid-19 cases are now growing “really in all parts of the country,” with particularly high transmission rates in the Midwest, Jay Butler, the CDC's deputy director for infectious diseases, said.  “Unfortunately, we are seeing a distressing trend here in the United States,” he added.  The surge is likely due to cooler temperatures as the nation enters the fall, he said, adding that “smaller, more intimate gatherings of family, friends and neighbors may be driving transmission as well, especially as they move indoors.”  Coronavirus cases grew by 5% or more over the past week in 38 states as of yesterday data from Johns Hopkins University that uses a weekly average to smooth out fluctuations in daily reporting.  The nation is now averaging roughly 61K new coronavirus cases every day.

U.S. reports more than 71,600 new Covid cases, near record highs, and hospitalizations rise

Shares of Intel (INTC), a Dow stock, were down more after the company's Q3 earnings revealed new weakness in its data center business & reaffirmed the delay of its latest-generation chips.  The Data Center Group, which derives revenue from enterprises & gov customers, saw a 7% revenue drop in the qtr.  Overall, revenue in the qtr declined 4% on an annualized basis.  INTC said in Jul it delayed its 7 nanometer processors until 2022 for computers and the following year for servers.  The company could begin relying on other companies to manufacture its chips.  “We have the decision to make about whether to build that next generation of products on Intel’s manufacturing footprint, on third party manufacturing footprint or on a mix of both. We’ve been designing our products to have the inherent flexibility to make those decisions over time,” CEO Bob Swan said.  The stock sank 5.70 (11%).
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Intel stock slumps after weak data center results, chip delay

Gold futures finished with a modest gain, but posted a 2nd weekly loss in a row, with traders looking to discussions on the US coronavirus relief package in Congress, moves in the $ & the upcoming presidential election for the metal's next big catalyst.  The precious metal traded in a tight range today, moving up in early dealings, with hope for a coronavirus relief package in DC that could provide a lift to buyers of bullion hedging against growing gov budget deficits.  Prices then moved lower after readings on the IHS Markit PMI indexes for the service & manufacturing sides of the economy rose in Oct.  Dec gold edged higher (called that even) to settle at $1905 an ounce, following a 1.3% skid yesterday.  Gold logged a 2nd-weekly loss, though the most-active contract was down a tad from last Fri's settlement.  The status of coronavirus aid negotiations in Congress remains uncertain & details on the size & breadth of an additional relief package aren't known.

Gold edges up for the session, but posts back-to-back weekly declines

Oil futures settled with a loss, as rising oil exports from Libya and ongoing worries about energy demand pulled US prices below the $40 mark.  Libya's National Oil said it lifted force majeure on its shipping commitments from the Es Sider & Ras Lanuf ports, meaning that the ports can meet contractural obligations on oil exports.  Libya resumed oil exports last month after the lifting of an 8-month blockade that had halted exports.  Dec West Texas Intermediate crude fell 79¢ (1.9%) to settle at $39.85 a barrel.  Based on the front-month contract, the US benchmark contract marked its lowest finish since Oct 12 after losing 3.1% this week.

Oil futures settle lower, with U.S. prices down about 3% for the week

Markets were quiet today.  Not much going on so some traders went home early.  For the week Dow fell 270 but is up 550 month-to-date.

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