Thursday, October 8, 2020

Markets rise on coronavirus stimulus hopes

Dow went up 114, advancers over decliners 4-1 & NAZ gained 60.  The MLP index added 2+ to the 113s & the REIT rose 5+ to the 365s.  Junk bond funds index crawled higher again & Treasuries inched up.  Oil went over 40 again & gold was even at 1891.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil41.11
+1.16+2.9%






GC=FGold   1,893.10
+2.30+0.1%










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The number of Americans applying for state unemployment benefits remained historically high last week, indicating the pace of layoffs is still elevated even as the economy slowly recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.  The latest jobless claims figures from the Labor Dept, which cover the week ending Oct 2, show that 840K workers sought aid last week, about 4-times the pre-crisis level.  More than 63M Americans have sought jobless aid since the coronavirus lockdowns began in mid-Mar.  The forecast called for 820K new claims.  Last week's figure was revised upward by 12K to 849K. The number of people who are continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell to 11M, a decline of more than 1M from the previous week.  But there's a caveat to the data: California paused processing initial claims for 2 weeks in an effort to clear a backlog & adopt fraud-prevention technology, the Labor Dept said.  This week's report reflects the level during the last week before the pause & will be adjusted accordingly at a later date.  Roughly 1M unemployed Americans have been seeking aid each week for the past 6 months, when the COVID-19 crisis triggered an unprecedented shutdown of the nation's economy, pointing to a sluggish turnaround.  It's down from the peak of more than 6M claims in late Mar, but remains well above the 200K reported in Feb.  Before the pandemic, the record high was 695K, set in 1982

Another 840,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week

Pres Trump said he shut down coronavirus stimulus talks with House Dems because he didn't "want to play games" but added today that relief for Americans could be back on the table.  "They were trying to get things, we were trying to get things, it wasn’t going anywhere," Trump said.  "I shut it down. I don’t want to play games."  "We are starting to have very productive talks," he said.  "[House Speaker Nancy Pelosi] wants it to happen too. She doesn’t want it not to happen. I believe she wants it to happen because it’s so good for our country."  Trump claimed talks about an airline bailout plus $1200-per-person stimulus checks were back on.  "It wasn’t workers’ fault. It wasn’t our airlines’ fault. China did this terrible thing to us. I will not be forgetting about that," he added.  "We should not hurt workers. … This was a horrible scourge."

Trump says relief talks 'very productive,' stimulus checks on the table

NY Fed Pres John Williams says that the outlook for the economy depends on the spread of the coronavirus & people's behavior containing the spread—the latest Fed official to stress that the outlook for the economy remains highly uncertain at the mercy of the virus.  “This is not a standard recession and the economic future is inextricably tied to the spread of the virus, people’s behavior in containing that spread, and the development of vaccines and therapeutics,” Williams said.  He underscored the Fed's new approach to policy – linking raising interest rates and other policy actions like buying bonds to economic outcomes on employment and inflation --  allows the Fed to respond to changes in the economy as they happen.  The head of the NY Fed's comments come just as internal discussions among Fed officials at their policy meeting in Sep over how to communicate about setting future policy revealed differences.  Several members of the central bank wanted to maintain current guidance on the Fed's intentions.  They didn't feel further “enhanced forward guidance” – tying raising rates to certain levels on inflation or unemployment – was needed now or would do much good now given that long-term bond yields, which influence borrowing rates were already so low.  They were also concerned leaving rates near zero could hurt their flexibility on policy & could lead to the build-up of financial bubbles that would make it hard to achieve stable prices & full employment.  A couple of members wanted to do even more on forward guidance.

Coronavirus will dictate U.S. economy’s path: Fed’s Williams

Despite a sluggish jobless claims report, stocks are advancing on hopes for a stimulus bill.  The election is close & as shown above Ms remain out of work, so those guys in DC should be able to come up with something soon.

Dow Jones Industrials







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