Monday, October 12, 2020

Markets rise as stimulus talks continue and earnings season begins

Dow shot up 288, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ jumped 245.   The MLP index fell 1 to the 116s  & the REIT index fluctuated in the 364s.  Junk bond funds continued in demand & Treasuries were off a tad.  Oil dropped 1+ to the 39s & gold added 1 to 1928.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
 
stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil39.29
 -1.31 -3.2%












GC=FGold   1,927.70
+1.50+0.1%






 




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Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin & White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows called on Congress to pass a coronavirus relief bill using leftover funds from the small business loan program as negotiations on a more comprehensive package face resistance.  Their proposal was the latest twist in the on-again, off-again talks to try to secure more stimulus for the economy.  In a letter to House & Senate members, Mnuchin & Meadows said the White House would continue to talk to Senate Dem Leader Chuck Schumer & House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, but that Congress should "immediately vote on a bill" that would enable the use of unused Paycheck Protection Program funds.  "The all or nothing approach is an unacceptable response to the American people," they wrote.  Pres Trump on Fri offered a $1.8T coronavirus relief package in talks with Pelosi after urging his team to "go big" - moving closer to Pelosi's $2.2T proposal.  That came after Trump earlier last week said he was calling off negotiations until after the election.  Trump's reversal & higher offer drew criticism from at least 20 Senate Reps, who said they were concerned a deal would cost Reps support in the upcoming elections.  White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said that he thought Senate Reps would eventually come around.  “I think if an agreement can be reached, they will go along with it,” he said, adding that there will be "further efforts of negotiation" on a package this week.

White House pushes for limited COVID relief bill

Dems in the House & Reps in the Senate expressed opposition to Pres Trump's $1.8T coronavirus stimulus offer over the weekend, with White House negotiators now calling for a separate vote on small business loans until the deadlock on a broader package is broken.   The White House's offer nearly doubles the original proposal from Reps when talks began in late summer but is about $400B less than the $2T bill Dems previously passed, leaving party leaders in Congress on both sides unhappy.  “This proposal amounted to one step forward, two steps back,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said of the Trump administration’s stimulus offer in a letter.  “When the President talks about wanting a bigger relief package, his proposal appears to mean that he wants more money at his discretion to grant or withhold, rather than agreeing on language prescribing how we honor our workers, crush the virus and put money in the pockets of workers,” Pelosi added.  Congress has failed to pass new aid for months as the virus continues to spread across the country & economic recovery slows.  Pelosi said the administration's proposal lacks a strategic plan to contain the spread of the virus & has inadequate funding for state & local govs as well as financial relief for American families.  Pelosi has called for a deal that reinstates the $600 per week supplemental unemployment benefit that ended in Jul & much more money for child care than what the administration is offering.  Senate Reps also expressed opposition to the administration offer in a call with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin & White House chief of staff Mark Meadows.  They hated the package, one source said.  Reps don't like the price tag & some of the policy areas.  They took issue with what they described as Dem demands to provide maximum health insurance subsidies to any new Obamacare enrollee as part of an agreement, one source said.

Pelosi says stimulus talks ‘remain at an impasse’ as White House calls for 

Painful social lockdowns in Europe & some American states helped blunt coronavirus.  Now, amid a fitful & uneven reopening, the pandemic is once again surging across both continents.  Data compiled by Johns Hopkins University shows a jump in new cases in France, Spain & the UK, where the virus is moving into younger populations & straining health systems at the onset of winter.  The data also shows new cases rising 10% or more week over week in at least 8 US states.  New cases in France topped 18K for a 2nd straight day, fueling a 15% rise in the number of weekly cases recorded in the country.  During the lockdown period in the spring, France averaged 7500 cases a day. British Health Minister Matt Hancock warned that the UK was at a "perilous moment" after more than 17,540 new coronavirus cases were recorded on Thurs, an increase of more than 3K from Wed.  Over the past week, newly reported cases across the UK jumped more than 20% compared with a week earlier.  Meanwhile, a showdown brewed in Spain between local & national officials over the legality of new, blanket measures to stem the spread of the virus in Madrid, now one of Europe's worst Covid-19 hot spots.  Many European nations hit hard by the pandemic this spring, including Italy, Spain & the UK, imposed strict stay-at-home orders that helped cut the number of new cases & they launched contact-tracing programs aimed at intercepting contagious people to slow the spread of the virus thru communities.  Economic strain, fatigue & isolation prompted politicians to permit reopenings of bars, restaurants & schools, despite warnings from public-health experts that there are insufficient measures in place to prevent outbreaks.  Younger people who socialize more have become a source of transmission, further endangering the older cohort who data show are more liable to die when infected.

New COVID-19 cases surge across US, Europe

Investors continue to be optimistic about the future.  They are betting on another stimulus bill (probably this week) & a good earnings season.  Meanwhile the virus is showing no sign of giving up with its fight around the world.

Dow Jones Industrials







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