Dow rose 101, advancers over decliners about 2-1 & NAZ jumped 157. The MLP index fell 1+ to 110 & the REIT index recovered 3+ to the 337s. Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries drifted lower in price. Oil fell 1+ to the 36s & gold slid back 6 to 1873.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
|
|
The US economy grew at a record-shattering pace in Q3 as businesses reopened from the coronavirus shutdown, but the nation remains in a deep hole from the COVID-induced recession. GDP, the broadest measure of goods & services produced
across the economy, surged by 33.1% on an annualized basis in the 3-month period from Jul-Sep, the Commerce Dept
said in its first reading of the data. The previous post-World
War II record was a 16.7% increase in 1950. The forecast called for the economy to expand by 31%. But
the headline figure obscures the full picture: The economy contracted
at an annual revised rate of 31.4% in the previous qtr, the sharpest
decline in modern American history. Looking at the quarterly data, the
nation's GDP grew 7.4% from the 2nd to the 3rd qtr, compared
with a 9% decline between the first & 2nd qtrs. The economy remains 3.5% smaller than at the end of 2019. The Commerce Dept calculates the GDP on a qtr-over-qtr
basis as if that level of growth were sustained for a full year; in
times of huge swings up or down, it can exaggerate both the decline in
growth & the subsequent rebound. Because the 3rd qtr is
measured against the 2nd qtr -- a historically low baseline --
any bounceback at all would appear huge. The US economy came to a
near standstill earlier this year to slow the spread of the novel
coronavirus, which has infected more than 9M Americans & killed 227K.
US economy mounts historic comeback as businesses reopen from lockdowns
The number of Americans applying for state unemployment benefits unexpectedly dropped last week, falling below 800K for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic shut down the nation's economy in mid-Mar. The latest jobless claims figures from the Labor Dept show that 751K workers sought aid last week, about 4-times the pre-crisis level. More than 65M Americans ‒ roughly 40% of the nation's labor force ‒ have sought jobless aid since the coronavirus lockdowns began in mid-Mar. Jobless claims have not been this low since Mar 14, when 282K Americans filed for aid, shortly before the virus-induced crisis triggered a flood of layoffs. The forecast called for 775K new claims. The number of people who are continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell to 7.75M, a decline of about 709K from the previous week. The decline suggests that employers are calling their workers back. Some of the declines in continuing claims may represent workers who have used up the maximum number of payments available thru state unemployment programs (typically about 6 months) & are now receiving benefits thru a separate federal program that extends the aid 13 weeks. Congress created the extra federal benefits earlier this year with the passage of the CARES Act. There are still 10.7M more out-of-work Americans than there were in Feb, before the pandemic hit.
Another 751,000 Americans filed for jobless aid last week as layoffs remain high
Potential homebuyers may be hitting the limit of what they can afford.
Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes,
fell 2.2% in Sep compared with Aug, according to the National
Association of Realtors. It was the first monthly decline in 4 months. Analysts had expected a
small monthly gain. Pending sales were 20.5% higher annually. The
Northeast, which is seeing distinct urban flight from New York City
amid the coronavirus pandemic, was the only region to post a gain. Sales
were up 2% for the month & 27.7% annually. In the Midwest, pending sales fell 3.2% monthly but were up 18.5% from Sep 2019. Pending
home sales in the South decreased 3% monthly & increased 19.6%
annually. In the West sales fell 2.6% monthly & were up 19.3% from a
year ago. “With persistent low mortgage rates and some degree of a
continuing jobs recovery, more contract signings are expected in the
near future,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the
Realtors. “Additionally, a second-order demand will steadily arise as
homeowners who had not considered moving before the pandemic begin to
enter the market.” Affordability, however, is clearly playing a role in the Sep
pullback. Mortgage rates, which set record lows in Aug, bounced
slightly higher in Sep & remained there for the entire month. While rates are still historically low, home price gains accelerated
dramatically over the summer, as demand outstripped supply by a wide
margin.
There was a surprise drop in September home sales as buyers were priced out
Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment