Wednesday, October 7, 2020

Markets rise on hopes for a targeted stimulus bill

Dow shot up 530 (near session high). advancers over decliners about 3-1 & NAZ advance 210.  The MLP index was fractionally higher to the 111s & the REIT index rose 2 to the 361s.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries were sold.  Oil slid back to 40 & gold dropped 18 to 1889 (more on both below).

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi signaled openness to a standalone coronavirus relief bill for the pandemic-stricken airline industry earlier today during a phone call with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin.  “The secretary inquired about a standalone airlines bill. The speaker reminded him that Republicans blocked that bill on Friday & asked him to review the DeFazio bill so that they could have an informed conversation,” Drew Hammill, the spokesman for Pelosi, tweeted.  Transportation Committee Chairman Peter DeFazio on Fri attempted to pass an extension of the just-expired Payroll Support Program for another 7 months by unanimous consent, but Reps thwarted the effort, saying that it had not been cleared by leadership from both sides of the aisle.  Under the legislation, airlines & contractors would receive $28B if they avoided job cuts or reducing workers' pay thru Mar 2020.  Pres Trump  called on lawmakers to approve another $25B for US airlines & $135B for the Paycheck Protection Program, a small business rescue fund.  "The House & Senate should IMMEDIATELY Approve 25 Billion Dollars for Airline Payroll Support, & 135 Billion Dollars for Paycheck Protection Program for Small Business. Both of these will be fully paid for with unused funds from the Cares Act. Have this money. I will sign now!" Trump wrote.  US airlines began cutting 35K jobs last week following the expiration of a $25B bailout fund that was created earlier this year as part of the CARES Act.  Under the terms of the agreement, airlines were prohibited from cutting jobs or reducing workers' pay thru Sep 30.  Absent another stimulus deal, major airlines warned they will be forced to furlough thousands of pilots, flight attendants, gate agents & other employees.  Pelosi urged airlines to delay the furloughs last week, vowing that additional gov relief is "imminent."  Airlines have begged the gov for additional aid after a rebound in air travel did not materialize this summer.  While it's mounted a tepid recovery since the height of the crisis, when it plunged 95%, air travel remains well below pre-pandemic levels.  Lawmakers are working on an increasingly tight deadline as they prepare to leave DC to campaign ahead of the Nov election.

Pelosi, Mnuchin signal openness to $25B bailout for US airlines

Shares of Eli Lilly (LLY) rose after the company announced it submitted a request to the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) for emergency authorization of its Covid-19 antibody treatment.  The company announced that its drug, LY-CoV555, which has proven to reduce the rate of hospitalizations for coronavirus patients, showed similar results when combined with another antibody treatment made by the company, LY-CoV016.  The combination treatment was used in people who were recently diagnosed with mild-to-moderate Covid-19.  The combination treatment “significantly reduced” viral load at day 11 & was “generally well tolerated with no drug-related serious adverse events.”  LLY said it has submitted a request seeking the FDA’s approval for LY-CoV555 & said it plans to submit a request for the combination treatment in Nov.  The company said it could supply 100K doses of LY-CoV555 in Oct & 50K doses of the combination therapy by Q4, “To be able to quickly provide treatment to patients around the world, Lilly invested in large-scale manufacturing of both antibodies at risk — even before data demonstrated their potential to become a meaningful therapeutic option for COVID-19,” the company said.  The stock rose 4.89 (3%).
If you would like to learn more about LLY, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/LLY?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Eli Lilly shares jump after company says it’s seeking FDA clearance for antibody drug

Gold futures ended at their lowest in just over a week, stretching losses seen a day earlier.  Pres Trump announced that he had halted talks with congressional Dems over another fiscal stimulus package yesterday, prompting gold prices to extend losses in electronic trading from their settlement level.  Trump then later called for action a number of individual aid measures.  Dec dropped $18 (0.9%) to settle at $1890 an ounce, the lowest most-active contract settlement since Sep 28  Gold prices saw little reaction today, holding at around $1889 shortly after the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting at which policymakers  worried about what would happen if fiscal aid would decrease or disappear.  Gold futures settled lower yesterday & then extended losses in electronic trading after Trump accused Dems of negotiating in bad faith & said he would halt talks on a stimulus package until after the Nov election, sparking a sharp selloff in stocks.  A few hours later, Trump said he would be willing to sign piecemeal aid measures, including $1200 stimulus checks to households & relief for airlines & small businesses.

Gold ends at a more than one-week low

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his allies on the central bank faced skepticism and opposition in trying to guide markets about the future path of interest rates, minutes of their Sep meeting.  After their meeting, the FOMC released a statement vowing to keep interest rate near zero until inflation is on track to moderately exceed the central bank's 2% target for some time.  Fed officials also released projections showing they expected rates would stay near zero until the end of 2023 at least.  There were 2 dissents from the new forward guidance from the 10 voting members of the committee.  It wasn't known until the minutes were published today that unease about the new policy was fairly broad among the remaining 7 officials who didn't vote.  According to the minutes, “several” of these Fed officials balked at the strategy, in part because the guidance could limit the central bank’s flexibility.  They also argued that by influencing the market's view about the future path of short-term interest rates, “such guidance could contribute to a buildup of financial imbalances that would make it more difficult for the FOMC to achieve its objectives in the future.”  A “couple” of Fed officials argued against the strategy for different reasons.  They wanted the Fed commitment to keep interest rates near zero to be even stronger & less qualified.  They wanted the Fed to say that the policy rate would remain near zero until inflation had moved above 2% for some time.  In what might cause confusion to investors, Fed officials stressed the new strategy was not “an unconditional commitment” to a particular path of interest rates.  Information pointing to a stronger economic recovery in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic would tend to lead to expectations for a shorter period of rates being kept near zero & vice versa, the Fed said.

Minutes of Fed’s meeting show unease among officials over new interest-rate strategy

Pres Trump has been “symptom-free” for more than 24 hours as he continues to be treated for the coronavirus at the White House, one of his doctors said.  Trump has also been “fever-free for more than 4 days” & has not required supplemental oxygen since leaving Walter Reed on Mon, Dr Sean Conley said.  “Of note today, the President’s labs demonstrated detectable levels of SARS-CoV-2-IgG antibodies from labs drawn Monday,” the White House physician added.  Conley's brief memo did not include any specific updates on his drug regimen.  Trump, since testing positive for the coronavirus last week, has taken numerous treatments, including the steroid dexamethasone, the antiviral therapy remdesivir & an antibody cocktail from Regeneron.  The memo did include remarks from Trump himself.  “The President this morning says ‘I feel great!’” Conley wrote.

Trump has been symptom-free for more than 24 hours, doctor says in new Covid memo

Oil futures settled lower, undermined by a weekly rise in US crude-oil inventories & concern about demand given the muddled outlook for another round of fiscal stimulus by Congress in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.  Prices, however, finished off the session's worst levels following news that more than 80% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has been halted as a major hurricane approaches the region.  Traders continued to track Hurricane Delta, which was expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  It's forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Fri.  The Bureau of Safety & Environmental Enforcement estimated that 80% of Gulf oil production & 49% of natural-gas output was shut in currently in anticipation of the storm.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Nov fell 72¢ (1.8%) to settle at $39.95 a barrel after trading as low as $39.28.  Dec Brent crude shed 66¢ (1.6%) to $41.99 a barrel. 

Oil settles lower, but pares losses as hurricane threat cuts Gulf oil output

Stocks had a good day.  Even a limited stimullus bill targeted at airlines, a vital part of the economy & other spending which has already been approved, was well received.  The Dow is back to where it was 2 months ago in a rising market.  Now it's 4% under its record highs in Feb. 

Dow Jones Industrials








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