Markets edge higher after favorable retail sales data

Dow went up 112 (but 200 below session highs), decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ was off 42.  The MLP index fell 2+ to the 117s & the REIT index slid back 1+ to the 354s.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries continued weak.  Oil slid back pennies, still under 41, & gold declined 4 to 1904 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Free Apple Analysis!

Bring Your Portfolio Into The 21st Century

Four Days, Four Trades, +40% Average Returns
Learn to trade options with MarketClub!

Senior White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said it would be "almost impossible" to execute a coronavirus relief package before the Nov election, even if Congress overcame a monthslong impasse & struck a deal.  "Maybe some of it could be executed," he said.  "But you certainly couldn't get a grand, large deal."  Instead, Kudlow urged lawmakers to reallocate $300B in unused CARES Act funds & use it to extend boosted unemployment benefits, reopen the Paycheck Protection Program and provide airlines with another $25B bailout.  "All they have to do is appropriate it," Kudlow said. "It takes legislative and political will to do it."  Kudlow's comments came one day after Pres Trump said thet he was considering upping his offer for a coronavirus relief package above the White House's current $1.8T proposal.  "I would," he continued.  "Absolutely, I would. I would say more. I would go higher. Go big or go home, I said it yesterday."  “Nancy Pelosi doesn’t want to give anything. She thinks it helps her with the election,” the pres continued.  “And I don’t think so. I think it hurts her with the election because everyone knows she’s holding it up. We’re not holding it up. She’s holding it up.”  But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell contradicted the pres just a few hours after he proposed raising his spending offer, rejecting a deal that costs more than $1.8T.

Why Kudlow says it's 'almost impossible' to execute stimulus deal before election

The Trump administration announced a deal with CVX & Walgreens (WBA), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, to administer coronavirus vaccines to the elderly & staff in long-term care facilities.  The vaccine will be free of charge & available for residents in all long-term care settings, including skilled nursing facilities, nursing homes, assisted living facilities, residential care homes & adult family homes, the Dept of Health & Human Services (HHS) said.  CVS & Walgreens will schedule & coordinate on-site clinic dates directly with each facility, HHS said.  The companies anticipate that3 total visits over 2 months are likely to be needed to administer both doses of vaccine to residents & staff.  “Protecting the vulnerable has been the number one priority of the Trump Administration’s response to COVID-19, and that commitment will continue through distributing a safe and effective vaccine earliest to those who need it most,” HHS Secretary Alex Azar added.  Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Administrator Seema Verma said the deal will ensure that nursing home residents, which have been hit hard by the virus, “are at the front of the line for the COVID vaccine and will bring their grueling trial to a close as swiftly as possible.”  The announcement comes the same day states must submit their draft plans to the federal gov on how they will distribute a coronavirus vaccine if & when one is approved for public use.  Most of the potential vaccines require 2 doses, although Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, requires just one shot, & some of them need to be transported & stored at varying & specific temperatures.

Trump administration strikes coronavirus vaccine deal with CVS and Walgreens 

Gold prices ended with a loss on to log their first weekly decline in 3 weeks, as overall strength in US currency weighed on $-pegged metals.  Dec rose $2 to settle at $1906 an ounce after rising a smidgen yesterday when prices had touched an intraday low of $1892, highlighting fitful trade for bullion on the week.  For the week, however, gold was off a tad (essentially even) & followed gains in each of the previous 2 weeks.  Over the longer term, bullish precious metals investors are betting that gold will break out of a range around $1900 as concerns about a resurgence of the pandemic grows & as fiscal & monetary stimulus increases—a felicitous environment for bullion to rally further.  Gold prices failed to find much support even as data on US industrial production revealed a decline in Sep, for the first time in 5 months. Consumer sentiment in early Oct, meanwhile, rose to 81.2 , the best level seen during the pandemic, from 80.4 in Sep.

Gold prices post losses for the session and week

The US gov ran a record budget deficit of $3.1T in the fiscal year that ended in Sep.  The massive deficit reflected the gov's effort to support the economy ravaged by the coronavirus pandemic.  The 4 pieces of legislation passed by Congress this year to combat the recession was by far the largest fiscal response to an economic crisis since the depression of the 1930s.   By comparison, the deficit in fiscal year 2019 totaled $984B.  The 4 cornavirus financial relief bills, including the $1.7T CARES Act passed in Mar, were estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to cost $2.4T combined.  The last time the gov ran deficits anywhere near this big relative to the size of the economy was during World War II.  Total outlays were $6.55T in the latest fiscal year, while receipts totaled $3.42T.   Experts say that the gov will have to return to a sustainable deficit path, but that the tax hikes & spending cuts needed to accomplish this goal should be put off until the pandemic subsides.  In an outlook, the CBO said that the fiscal deficit will remain elevated over the next decade.  The lowest projected deficit over the next decade is $1.080T in 2027, according to the CBO.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell & top economists have urged the 2 parties in Congress to put aside their differences & pass more fiscal relief, but talks on another relief package have lost momentum.

U.S. federal budget deficit soars to record $3.1 trillion in 2020 

Oil futures lost ground, prompting prices to turn lower for the week, as an accelerating rise in COVID-19 cases in the US & Europe heightens worries about demand for crude.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Nov fell 58¢ (1.4%) to $40.38 a barrel, positioning prices for a weekly loss of 0.6%, based on the front month.  Dec Brent crude , the global benchmark, was off 67¢ (1.6%) to $42.49 a barrel & had a 0.8% weekly decline.  US data revealed that industrial production fell for the first time in 5 months, down 0.6% in Sep, surprising economists who expected more steady growth.  Oil prices did find some support during the week after Saudi Arabia & Russia reported reiterated their commitment to the production cut agreement between OPEC & their allies (OPEC+).

Oil falls as demand concerns set prices up for a loss on the week

The Dow had a solid gain until the last hour when sellers took it lower.  For the week, the Dow rose a meager 20.  It's back to where it was in Feb & within 1K of setting a new record even if another rescue package will have to wait until after the election (maybe later).

Dow Jones Industrials