Monday, September 11, 2017

Markets soar on easing concerns about Irma and North Korea

Dow jumped up 259 (closing very near its highs), advancers over decliners about 4-1 & NAZ gained 72.  The MLP index added 1+ to the 281s & the REIT index rose 2+ to 360 (approaching record high levels).  Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries remained weak.  Oil went up to 48 after the hurricane & gold sank 20 to 1330 as stocks rallied.

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3 major US indices rose more than 1% as Irma's downgrade to a tropical storm eased concerns about its impact on economic growth & as North Korea refrained from any missile tests over the weekend, as feared.  All the 11 major S&P sectors were higher, led by gains in technology & financial stocks, with insurers advancing as Irma's fury petered out.  Irma, once ranked as one of the most powerful hurricane recorded in the Atlantic, was downgraded to a tropical storm, but still caused severe flooding in many Florida cities & left more than 6M homes & businesses without power.  However, Irma's weakening meant its impact on economic growth would not be as much as expected.  That came as a relief, especially in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, whose devastation is estimated to dent Q3 economic growth.  Geopolitical tensions also eased as North Korea held a massive celebration on its founding day on Sat, instead of another long-range missile launch as the US & its allies were bracing for.

Wall St up 1% as Irma, N. Korea fears ease

China's auto sales rose 4.1% in Aug from the same month a year earlier, driven by strong demand for SUVs, an industry group reported.  Drivers in the world's biggest market by number of vehicles sold purchased almost 1.9M SUVs, sedans & minivans, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.  Total vehicle sales, including trucks & buses, rose 5.3% to almost 2.2M.  SUV sales rose 17.7% to 774K while sedan sales edged up 1.6% to 933K.  Auto sales for the first 8 months of the year rose 2.2% from a year earlier to 14.8M, down sharply from 2016's full-year growth of 15%.  Sales growth this year has been relatively weak in comparison with a spike in demand last year as buyers moved up purchases to take advantage of a temporary sales tax cut.  Demand cooled after a portion of the tax was restored in Jan.  Aug sales of gasoline-electric SUVs & sedans rose 95.5% over a year earlier to 56K while purchases of pure-electric cars rose 21.6% to 1200.  General Motors (GM) sales of GM-brand vehicles by the company & its Chinese partners rose 12% from a year earlier to 328K.  Ford (F) sales declined 1% from a year earlier to 98K, while year-to-date sales were off 6% at 720K.  The company said sales by its Lincoln luxury brand rose 105% to 5200.

China's auto sales rise 4.1 percent in August


As many retailers wrestle to stay afloat, high-end department giant Nordstrom (JWN) has announced plans to open a new store concept next month that doesn't include any merchandise.  The store, called Nordstrom Local, will be a fraction of the size of its typical locations (around 3K square feet instead of the standard 140K square feet) & won’t carry any clothes.  Instead, the retailer will offer services such as manicures, on-site tailoring & alcohol to its consumers.  The new location is scheduled to open early Oct in West Hollywood, California.  It will contain several dressing rooms, where shoppers can try on clothes & accessories with the assistance of a Nordstrom personal stylist, even though the store won't stock the merchandise for consumers to buy.  Instead, they plan to direct them to purchase the gear online or at one of its other store locations.  The stock dropped 1.38.

Nordstrom to open a store without any merchandise


Estimates of the size of a Hurricane Harvey aid package for Texas & Louisiana rose last week, with one proposal being drafted for $150B, while the White House promised to make a request for funding soon to Congress.  The Trump administration will  make a request to Congress shortly for funds to help recovery efforts from Harvey, which caused devastating flooding, White House homeland security adviser Tom Bossert said.  He told reporters that an aid funding request will likely come in stages as more is known about the storm's impact.  Trump has prepared a request to Congress for an initial $5.9B in aid.  Taxpayers are likely to face a bill for Harvey near the $110B for 2005's Hurricane Katrina.  Estimates on the amount of the Harvey aid vary widely.  The Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) disaster relief fund had only $3.3B when the storm struck.  The urgency of aiding areas hit by Harvey may also complicate a broader fiscal policy showdown that is coming in late Sep.  When Harvey plowed into the Texas coast, Congress & Trump were already struggling to deal with the debt ceiling, the cap on how much money the federal gov can borrow, & the need to approve a temporary federal budget bill by Oct 1 to prevent a gov shutdown.  Treasury Sec Steve Mnuchin said that the impact of Hurricane Harvey spending could bring forward the deadline by which the nation's debt ceiling needs to be raised by "a couple of days."  He repeated that the limit needs to be raised by Sep 29.

White House vows quick action as Harvey aid estimates soar


The Dow was taken back over 22K by the bulls who are feeling good about the future of the economy.  Those emotions might be premature given the enormous amount of work needed for hurricane relief (paid for by taxpayers) & the already scheduled workload for Congress to get done in Sep.  And Congress continues to be dysfunctional.  But the bulls have a "Why worry, what can go wrong attitude?"  Gold, negative bets on the stock market, is still near multi year highs.  That's a major disconnect.

Dow Jones Industrials











 

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