Dow inched up 1 (to another record), advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ was off 5. The MLP index rose fractionally to the 282s & the REIT index was even in the 355s. Junk bond funds were flattish & Treasuries crawled higher. Oil hit 50 again & gold went up 5.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
US retail sales are expected to accelerate during this year's holiday season, a sign consumers will be more comfortable opening their wallets than in the aftermath of a tumultuous presidential election. The sales may climb as much as 4.5% to $1.05T in the Nov-Jan shopping season, according to Deloitte LLP. That would outpace the 3.6% growth in the same period of last year. The seasonally adjusted numbers exclude purchases of motor vehicles & gas. “The consumer is pretty comfortable,” Rod Sides, vice chairman of Deloitte, said. “They’re looking to spend a little more than they have in the past.” Bigger paychecks, higher consumer confidence & a strong labor market are all helping drive the growth. Disposable income increased just 2% heading into last year's holiday season, but it’s expected to rise as much as 4.2% this time around, according to Deloitte. The rosier outlook strikes a different tone than last year, when many retailers blamed the polarizing presidential election for keeping shoppers at home. This time around, some retailers are ramping up hiring, a sign they expect a bigger rush of shoppers. But heavy competition, especially from online sellers, will make it harder for conventional chains to attract customers, Sides said. E-commerce sales are expected to swell 18 -21% from Nov-Jan, compared with last year's growth rate of 14&.
U.S. Holiday Sales Projected to Jump as Consumer Jitters Subside
Sales of previously owned US homes declined to a one-year low in Aug as affordability continued to hamper demand & Hurricane Harvey caused a slump in Houston-area purchases, a National Association of Realtors report showed. Contract closings fell 1.7% M/M to a 5.35M annual rate (est. 5.45M). Purchases in Houston decreased 25% Y/Y; excluding Harvey's effect, sales would have been “flat,” according to the NAR. The median sales price rose 5.6% Y/Y to $253K. The inventory of available properties decreased 6.5% Y/Y to 1.88M, marking the 27th consecutive year-on-year decline. While decreased purchase activity in Houston helped push down the sales count nationwide, & may continue to do so in coming months, residential real estate is struggling to improve because of declining affordability, the NAR said. Housing data may be volatile for several months in the wake of Harvey & Irma. As a result, US sales in 2017 will probably be weaker than they were last year. A pause in both sales & construction in Texas & Florida as clean-up efforts continue will probably give way to improving demand later this year & into next. Even before the storms, home price growth was exceeding wage gains because of lean inventory, crimping affordability for some & leaving buyers with fewer properties to choose from. At the same time, a steady job market & still-low borrowing costs remain sources of support for the housing recovery.
Oil headed for its largest Q3 gain in 13 years as prices rose after the Iraqi oil minister said OPEC & its partners are considering extending or deepening output cuts aimed at reducing a global supply glut. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 52¢ to $50.00. The oil price is on course for a rise of nearly 16% this qtr, which would make this year's performance the strongest for Q3 since 2004. OPEC & other producers are considering a range of options, including an extension of cuts, but it is premature to deci de on what to do beyond the agreement's expiry in Mar, Iraqi oil minister Jabar al-Luaibi told an energy conference. OPEC & non-OPEC producers including Russia have agreed to reduce output by about 1.8M barrels per day (bpd) until Mar to reduce global oil inventories & support prices. Some producers think the pact should be extended for 3 or 4 months, others want it to run until the end of 2018, while some, including Ecuador & Iraq, think there should be another round of supply cuts, al-Luaibi said. Analysts, however, doubt that such an extension would have much of an impact on the overall oil market. US crude stocks rose last week while gasoline & distillate stocks decreased, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Crude inventories rose by 1.4M barrels to 470M, compared with expectations of a 3.5M barrel increase.
Oil set for biggest 3Q rise since 2004, Iraq hints at OPEC extension
Traders are twiddling their thumbs waiting for Janet to speak. She will discuss plans to sell part of the Treasury bond portfolio, &, perhaps, give vague hints about the next rate hike. The biggest events at the UN are probably over. That pushes the ball of excitement back to DC, where those guys have a bunch of items to work on. It looks like they got the message that their ratings are below Putin's, giving them stimulus to pass legislation. But this month is closing fast.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 50.24 | +0.76 | +1.5% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,315.60 | +5.00 | +0.4% |
US retail sales are expected to accelerate during this year's holiday season, a sign consumers will be more comfortable opening their wallets than in the aftermath of a tumultuous presidential election. The sales may climb as much as 4.5% to $1.05T in the Nov-Jan shopping season, according to Deloitte LLP. That would outpace the 3.6% growth in the same period of last year. The seasonally adjusted numbers exclude purchases of motor vehicles & gas. “The consumer is pretty comfortable,” Rod Sides, vice chairman of Deloitte, said. “They’re looking to spend a little more than they have in the past.” Bigger paychecks, higher consumer confidence & a strong labor market are all helping drive the growth. Disposable income increased just 2% heading into last year's holiday season, but it’s expected to rise as much as 4.2% this time around, according to Deloitte. The rosier outlook strikes a different tone than last year, when many retailers blamed the polarizing presidential election for keeping shoppers at home. This time around, some retailers are ramping up hiring, a sign they expect a bigger rush of shoppers. But heavy competition, especially from online sellers, will make it harder for conventional chains to attract customers, Sides said. E-commerce sales are expected to swell 18 -21% from Nov-Jan, compared with last year's growth rate of 14&.
U.S. Holiday Sales Projected to Jump as Consumer Jitters Subside
Sales of previously owned US homes declined to a one-year low in Aug as affordability continued to hamper demand & Hurricane Harvey caused a slump in Houston-area purchases, a National Association of Realtors report showed. Contract closings fell 1.7% M/M to a 5.35M annual rate (est. 5.45M). Purchases in Houston decreased 25% Y/Y; excluding Harvey's effect, sales would have been “flat,” according to the NAR. The median sales price rose 5.6% Y/Y to $253K. The inventory of available properties decreased 6.5% Y/Y to 1.88M, marking the 27th consecutive year-on-year decline. While decreased purchase activity in Houston helped push down the sales count nationwide, & may continue to do so in coming months, residential real estate is struggling to improve because of declining affordability, the NAR said. Housing data may be volatile for several months in the wake of Harvey & Irma. As a result, US sales in 2017 will probably be weaker than they were last year. A pause in both sales & construction in Texas & Florida as clean-up efforts continue will probably give way to improving demand later this year & into next. Even before the storms, home price growth was exceeding wage gains because of lean inventory, crimping affordability for some & leaving buyers with fewer properties to choose from. At the same time, a steady job market & still-low borrowing costs remain sources of support for the housing recovery.
U.S. Existing-Home Sales Fall to a One-Year Low After Harvey
Oil headed for its largest Q3 gain in 13 years as prices rose after the Iraqi oil minister said OPEC & its partners are considering extending or deepening output cuts aimed at reducing a global supply glut. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 52¢ to $50.00. The oil price is on course for a rise of nearly 16% this qtr, which would make this year's performance the strongest for Q3 since 2004. OPEC & other producers are considering a range of options, including an extension of cuts, but it is premature to deci de on what to do beyond the agreement's expiry in Mar, Iraqi oil minister Jabar al-Luaibi told an energy conference. OPEC & non-OPEC producers including Russia have agreed to reduce output by about 1.8M barrels per day (bpd) until Mar to reduce global oil inventories & support prices. Some producers think the pact should be extended for 3 or 4 months, others want it to run until the end of 2018, while some, including Ecuador & Iraq, think there should be another round of supply cuts, al-Luaibi said. Analysts, however, doubt that such an extension would have much of an impact on the overall oil market. US crude stocks rose last week while gasoline & distillate stocks decreased, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Crude inventories rose by 1.4M barrels to 470M, compared with expectations of a 3.5M barrel increase.
Oil set for biggest 3Q rise since 2004, Iraq hints at OPEC extension
Traders are twiddling their thumbs waiting for Janet to speak. She will discuss plans to sell part of the Treasury bond portfolio, &, perhaps, give vague hints about the next rate hike. The biggest events at the UN are probably over. That pushes the ball of excitement back to DC, where those guys have a bunch of items to work on. It looks like they got the message that their ratings are below Putin's, giving them stimulus to pass legislation. But this month is closing fast.
Dow Jones Industrials
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