Monday, July 6, 2020

Higher markets led by Nasdaq setting a new record

Dow advanced 459 (session highs), advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ jumped 226.  The MLP index gave back 3+ to the 127s & the REIT index was steady in the 352s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries continued to be sold.  Oil was about even, holding above 40, & gold went up 4 to 1794 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Texas had more than 8K hospitalized Covid-19 patients, a record number of hospitalizations & one of the highest in the countr.  The number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 grew by 5% or more yesterday in 23 states, based on a 7-day moving average, according to data compiled by the Covid Tracking Project, an independent volunteer organization launched by journalists at The Atlantic.  Public health experts watch hospitalizations closely because it can indicate how severe an outbreak is in an area.  It's considered a better measure than new cases because it's not as reliant on the availability of testing.  California, Arizona, Nevada & Georgia have also seen growing Covid-19 hospitalizations.  Florida only tracks the number of people who have been hospitalized since the beginning of the outbreak & not those currently in the hospital with Covid-19.  Coronavirus cases were growing in 36 states in the US.  Cases across the US grew by more than 26% compared with a week ago.  The number of cases may have been underreported over the Fourth of Jul weekend & could be reported later in some states, according to Johns Hopkins.  Texas & Florida reported record surges in coronavirus cases over the Fourth of Jul weekend as state & local govs try to contain growing outbreaks across the Sun Belt.  Florida reported that 14.1% of those tested for the virus were positive, while Texas reported a positivity rate of 13.1%, both above each states' 10% target range.  Hospitals in at least 2 Texas counties are at full capacity & local officials are urging residents there to shelter in place and avoid gatherings, according to local officials.  Houston’s hospitals are on track to be overwhelmed in approximately 2 weeks as cases mount, Mayor Sylvester Turner said

Coronavirus hospitalizations grow in 23 states as Texas admissions soar to new record

More travelers took to the skies over the Jul 4 weekend, but airlines are still facing paltry demand compared with last summer because of the coronavirus pandemic.  An average of 662K people a day passed thru Transportation Security Administration checkpoints in the first 5 days of Jul, a more than 90% jump from the same period last month & more than 5 times the number logged during the first 5 days of Apr, TSA data released today showed.  But holiday weekend traffic is down more than 72% from the same period of 2019, underscoring airlines' struggle to attract travelers amid the pandemic this summer, usually the peak travel period.  American Airlines (AAL), for example, carried 211K passengers on Jul 2, its busiest day since Mar, but the airline carried more than 600K travelers a day during the holiday weekend last year.  Airlines have taken a number of steps to encourage bookings, such as waiving change fees if customers choose to forgo trips this summer as coronavirus cases rise & travel next year instead.  Major US airlines are also requiring travelers to wear masks during their flights & have threatened to ban customers who refuse to comply.  There are some exceptions, such as if a passenger has a medical issue or is eating or drinking.  Some airlines have been limiting the number of seats they sell on flights to space travelers out more on their planes.  Other airlines aren't blocking seats but instead say they notify travelers if the plane is filling up.

Air travel jumps over July 4 weekend, but down more than 70% from 2019

Gold futures finished at their highest prices in nearly a week, supported in part by a softer $, which provided a runway higher for the commodity even as global stocks rallied.  Moves in the greenback came amid a broad rally in equities that has been attributed to a surge in Chinese markets.  Beijing's state-run media published a front-page editorial encouraging investors to buy stocks to support domestic markets.  Still, investors are wrestling with the climbing tally of new COVID-19 cases in the US, concentrated in a number of hot-spot states including Arizona & Florida.  Against that backdrop, Aug gold rose $3 to settle at $1793 an ounce, the highest finish for a most-active contract since Jun 30, when prices ended at $1800 for the first time since 2011.  Prices on Thurs ended 0.5% higher for the holiday-abbreviated week.  Gold saw some pressure, briefly giving up earlier gains that had lifted prices to as high as $1799 shortly after economic data released today showed that the Institute for Supply Management’s index of nonmanufacturing companies jumped to 57.1% in Jun from 45.4% in May.  That marked the single-biggest increase since the survey was created in 1997.  However, growth looked so strong because it occurred after a few months of extremely low activity.

Gold ends at a nearly 1-week high as U.S. dollar softens to start July’s first full week

Crude-oil futures settled on a mixed note, with the US oil moves pressured by the growth in coronavirus cases, but intl prices gaining on hopes of China's perceived recovery from the pandemic.  Brent, the intl benchmark oil, also was supported by Saudi Arabia's decision to raise the premium of its benchmark grade crude by $1 a barrel, representing the 3rd straight price increase by one of the biggest exporters of oil & the most influential member of OPEC.  A blockade of oil-producing country Libya also remains in place, hindering exports from the north African producer, & helping to fuel expectations that supplies for crude may tighten more than expected.  Mustafa Sanalla, chairman of Libya's National Oil Company, said that “some regional countries are complicating the negotiations while enjoying the absence of Libyan oil from the market.”  The oil embargo has driven Libya's daily oil production to 100K barrels from an average of 1.2M.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Aug lost 2¢ to settle at $40.63 a barrel, after posting a weekly gain of 5% on Thurs, with US markets closed on Fri.  Global benchmark Brent oil for Sep, however, rose 30¢ (0.7%) from Fri's shortened session on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, to settle at $43.10 a barrel.  US markets have been contending with growing cases of COVID-19, with the US adding more than 49K new cases on Sun, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.  Cases in the US account for about ¼ of the global total of more than 11.4M infections.  But assets considered risky also have seen an uptrend, partly on the back of hope that China, one of the biggest importers of crude globally, can continue to show progress from emerging from the viral pandemic. Chinese equities rallied today.

Brent oil scores a lift from Saudi price rise, China optimism, while rising coronavirus cases pressure U.S. crude

Investors are optimistic, looking past coronavirus problems & they see light.  However growing cases of new hospitalizations are troubling.  Nervous investors keep buying gold & may take it to a new record level shortly, even with NAZ setting new records & the Dow has risen 500 in Jul & is only 1% under its record set a few months ago.  These times are exciting.

Dow Jones Industrials








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