Thursday, July 23, 2020

Markets fall on weaker than expected jobless claims report

Dow dropped 139, going back under 27K, advancers somewhat over decliners & NAZ fell 28.  The MLP index was off 1+ to 130 & the REIT index fluctuated near 348.  Junk bond funds retreated & Treasuries were bid higher.  Oil slid back to the 41s & gold jumped 21 to 1886, flirting with setting a new record.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil41.68
   -0.22-0.5%

GC=FGold   1,878.30
+13.20+0.7%






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The number of Americans who filed for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week as the coronavirus pandemic inflicted more damage to the US economy.  The Labor Dept said initial jobless claims came in at 1.4M last week.  The forecast expected 1.3M.  It was the 18th straight week in which initial claims totaled more than 1M & it snapped a 15-week streak of declining initial claims.  California saw the highest number of initial claims filed last week at 293K, the Labor Dept report showed.  Florida & Georgia each reported more than 100K claims for last week as well.  Last week's apparent stalling in the labor market comes as coronavirus cases in the US rise at a record pace.  Data compiled by Johns Hopkins University showed the total number of confirmed cases in the country is nearing 4M, has killed more than 140K.  The data also comes as an additional $600-per-week unemployment benefit is set to expire at the end of next week.  Reps are considering extending this benefit at a reduced $100-per-week rate thru Dec.

Weekly claims turn higher as coronavirus jobs crisis inflicts more damage

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said Pres Trump's request for a payroll tax cut will not be included in the 4th coronavirus stimulus bill while hinting a 5th package could be on the horizon.  Mnuchin was asked whether the payroll tax cut, which has been Trump's top priority in negotiations for this round of legislation, would be included in the final bill.  "Not in this, but we're gonna come back again," Mnuchin said. "You know, there may be a CARES 5.0. The president, again, is focused on money and American workers and American pockets right now."

Mnuchin says payroll tax cut won't be included in next aid bill, hints at Phase 5


The UK & the US have been negotiating a free trade deal since the UK left the EU.  The UK had hoped for a deal in time for 2021, when its transition period with the EU, under which it trades on the same terms as when it was a member, ends.  Meanwhile, a quick deal for the US would have boosted Pres Trump heading into the Nov Presidential election.  On Tues senior gov officials reportedly said coronavirus had slowed negotiations & that it was unlikely enough progress would be made before the presidential election to complete a deal.  This came a month after a congressional hearing in which trade representative Robert Lighthizer said a deal being completed before the election was “unlikely.”  “That would be very, very, very quick time,” he said.  Trade talks have stalled over concerns about import standards, as the US wants farmers to have access to the UK markets, the UK has said it would not lower its agricultural regulatory standards, which ban the import of products such as hormone-injected beef & chlorine-washed chicken.  “It is a primary focus of the United States to see if we can make progress on this and bring this to a close just as quickly as possible,” he said.  A UK dept for intl trade spokesperson said: “Talks are going well and are proceeding at pace, and we’re hopeful of making further progress when the third round starts next week.”  “We’ve been clear that there is no specific timeframe — our focus is on getting a deal that works in the best interests of the UK,” they added.

Agreement unlikely in U.K. and U.S. trade talks until after 2020 due to coronavirus

New weekly unemployment insurance claims rose by more than 1.4M last week, with the level of new claims increasing for the first time since mid-Mar.  That was disappointing.  US-China trade relations are on a rocky road.  A new stimulus package is not getting a warm reception by those guys in DC.  And data on the coronavirus front continues to be be grim.  Stocks are being sold & some of that money is buying gold, pushing it up to record levels.

Dow Jones Industrials








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