Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Markets slide lower as stimulus bill stalls and earnings are evaluated

Dow declined 205 with selling in the last hour taking it down to session lows, decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ  fell 134.  The MLP index was off a fraction to the 127s & the REIT index jumped up 7+ to the 355s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries remained in demand.  Oil dipped below 41 & gold went up 19 to a new record at 1950 (more on both below).

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US consumer confidence tumbled in Jul to a reading of 92.6 as coronavirus infections spread in many parts of the country.  The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index fell from a Jun reading of 98.3.  The weakness came from a drop in the expectations index, which measures consumer views about the short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions.  The consumer confidence index is closely watched for signals it can send about future consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of economic activity.  The Conference Board said that the large decline in the expectations index reflected big drops in sentiment in Michigan, Forida, Texas & California, all states that have seen a resurgence in coronavirus cases.  About 4.2M confirmed COVID-19 cases have been reported in the US, according to Johns Hopkins University, & there have been more than 146K deaths.  "Consumers have grown less optimistic about the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market and remain subdued about their financial prospects," said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board.  "Such uncertainty about the short-term future does not bode well for the recovery, nor for consumer spending," he added.  The overall index stood at a high for this year of 132.6 in Feb before the pandemic forced shutdowns across the country in Mar & Apr.

US consumer confidence tumbles in July as coronavirus spreads


Pfizer (PFE), a Dow stock, reported growth in its biopharma division in the latest qtr, but overall sales fell amid increased competition in its generic-drug business.  The company reported revenue of $11.8B, an 11% decline from $13.3B a year earlier.  The forecast called for sales of $11.6B.  Sales grew for thes biopharma division, which focuses on new drugs.  Biopharma revenue rose 4% to $9.8B, up from $9.4B a year earlier.  But the overall sales trend was pulled down by declining sales at Upjohn's off-patent drug division.  Upjohn sales declined 32% year over year to $2B.  The loss of its exclusive US rights to Lyrica, a medication for nerve pain, as a contributor to the decline.  The coronavirus pandemic has had little impact on its manufacturing & that clinical trials resumed in mid-Apr after a brief pause caused by the public-health crisis.  PFE estimated that the pandemic brought down Q2 revenue by approximately 4%, in part due to disruptions to wellness visits for adults & children.  EPS was 61¢, or 78¢ on an adjusted basis.  The forecast called for 67¢.  The company's candidate vaccine to protect against Covid-19 began Phase 3 testing this week.   Last week, the US agreed to pay $1.95B for 100M doses of the vaccine. PFE also gave a slight boost to its full-year EPS guidance as it will exist after the Upjohn transaction, raising its projected sales to $40.8-42.4B.  The guidance doesn't account for future Covid-19 vaccine sales.  The stock went up 1.49(4%).
If you would like to learn more about PFE, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PFE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Pfizer sales fall as drugmaker races toward COVID-19 vaccine


Industrial conglomerate 3M (MMM), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, quarterly results were hurt by a plunge in demand across its business units due to the coronavirus crisis.  The worldwide lockdowns sapped demand for most of its products, although the drop was cushioned somewhat by strong sales of its respiratory masks.  Demand for masks has surged due to COVID-19 pandemic, as health experts & gov officials recommend their usage to control the spread of the pandemic, putting MMM at the heart of a tug of war between countries over supplies.  MMM, the world's biggest mask maker, said it was on track to meet its target of doubling its global output of N95 respirator masks, designed to filter 95% of airborne particles, to 2B by the end of 2020.  Operating expenses, however, were down 16% to $5.4B, as the company delivered a promised $400M in cost cuts year-on-year to help offset COVID-19 related impacts.  EPS was $2.22, in Q2, up from $1.92, a year earlier.  On an adjusted basis, the maker of Post-it notes & Scotch tape EPS was $1.78.  The forecast called for $1.80 on revenue $7.3B.  The stock dropped 7.94 (5%).
If you would like to learn more about MMM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MMM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

3M posts 12% fall in revenue as coronavirus crisis hammers demand


As coronavirus cases surge in the US & many states reshutter indoor dining, restaurant transactions have plateaued.  The NPD Group tracks transactions at 75 restaurant chains that represent more than ½ of total US commercial restaurant traffic.  According to its data, the US restaurant industry began reversing transaction declines in Apr & was inching closer to a return to year-ago transaction levels by mid-Jun.  Then Covid-19 cases began surging again.  Some states began reclosing bars & dining rooms — or at least restricting indoor dining capacity, as in Texas — after some outbreaks were traced back to such establishments.  Consumers are avoiding restaurants, bars & coffee shops more now, according to a Coresight Research survey of more than 400 respondents.  On Jul 22, 61.9% of respondents said that they were avoiding those establishments, up from 61.2% a week prior.  Full-service restaurants, which have already been battered harder by the pandemic, appear to be hurt more by the shift in behavior.  Fast-food restaurants can rely on their drive-thru lanes to drive sales & their cheap deals also appeal to cash-strapped consumers during the crisis.  Full-service restaurants, on the other hand, saw their transaction declines reverse more quickly in May & Jun as states reopened dining rooms.  And many of those chains were experiencing lagging growth even before the pandemic, spelling trouble for their ability to stay afloat.

Restaurant transactions plateau as coronavirus cases surge

Gold futures climbed to notch another record-high settlement as a fall in US consumer confidence boosted the precious metal's haven appeal.  The gains came after the Conference Board reported that the index of consumer confidence fell to 92.6 this month from a revised 98.3 in Jun.  The $, stabilized after a sharp decline this month, while investors waited for the outcome of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting tomorrow.  Aug gold rose $13 (0.7%) to settle at $1944 an ounce, the highest finish on record for a most-active contract.  It traded as high as $1974 to top the intraday record set yesterday, but it also fell to as low as $1900 to mark a wide trading range.  The rollout of the Senate Rep $1T stimulus plan added to concerns about monetary financing of gov spending, with the Federal Reserve today starting its 2-day interest-rate-setting meeting.  The gains for gold also come amid the tense relationship between the US & China.

Gold futures tally a fresh record settlement as U.S. consumer confidence declines

Oil futures logged their lowest finish in more than a week, as the $ steadied & traders continue to fret over the outlook for energy demand, ahead of weekly US petroleum supply data.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Sep fell 56¢ (1.4%) to settle at $41.04 a barrel after posting a gain of  0.8% yesterday.  The front-month contract ended at its lowest in a week.  Global benchmark Sep Brent crude declined by 19¢ (0.4%) at $43.22 a barrel, the lowest finish since Jul 17.  Uhe EIA is expected to report a decline of 1.2M barrels in crude supplies for last week.  With signs the US economic recovery may be slowing, Senate Reps yesterday unveiled a $1T coronavirus relief package, kicking off negotiations with Dems over a package.  A battle looms over supplemental unemployment benefits, with Dems eager to maintain the existing $600 weekly supplement, while the Rep plan would reduce it to a $200 add-on thru Sep.  The supplemental jobless benefits are due to expire at the end of the month.

Oil ends at more than one-week low as traders fret over demand, ahead of weekly supply data

The stimulus package is stuck in the mud & it's unlikely that will change until the last minute, if not later.  Earnings are coming in weak but short of disastrous.  The first estimate for Q2 GDP will be released before the market open on Thurs & it's expected t o be the biggest contraction ever.  However at that point in time, it will only be history since the economy is in Q3 & that data is expected to show improvement.

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