Dow climbed 177 thanks to late day buying, advancers over decliners 5-4 & NAZ went up 148 to another record. The MLP index was fractionally higher to 128 & the REIT index fluctuated around 345. Junk bond funds crept higher & Treasuries were off a tad. Oil crawled higher to 41 & gold advanced 8 to 1818 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow said that the US is in the middle of a "V-shaped recovery" amid the coronavirus pandemic that rocked the economy, while warning that it would be a "big mistake" to shut down the country amid a surge in positive cases of COVID-19. When asked about how the latest surge in positive cases of the novel coronavirus could affect the economy, he said: "We're looking very carefully." while touting a "tremendous burst of jobs in May and June" & "tremendous record hiring rates." "People are starting to quit their jobs again, which is extraordinary, in order to shop around for better jobs and wages." Kudlow noted that the increase in cases "could have an impact" on some cities in terms of jobs & openings, but said that "we just have to work our way through this." "We know the right mitigation, which has worked, and if we use that wholeheartedly and respect each other, I think we'll get out of this pretty well and it will not stop the V-shaped recovery," he added. He also warned that "it would really be a big mistake" to initiate another shutdown. "Another shutdown, in itself is controversial," Kudlow said, adding that it would "do more harm than good." "It would harm everyone," Kudlow continued. "Not just businesses — the V-shaped recovery would give way. It would harm kids, we saw numbers on depression, drinking and so on." He added: "That solution would be worse than the disease." More than 2 dozen states are experiencing a surge in positive COVID-19 cases amid their phased reopening. The US reported more than 3M cases of COVID-19 across the country & more than 131K deaths.
Dividends plunge $42.5 billion in worst quarter since Great Recession
Business spending showed some signs of green shoots in Jun, as manufacturers bought more equipment & spending shifted away from stay-at-home sectors to ones that could rebound in a reopening economy, according to Cortera, a software company which analyzes business-to-business credit transactions. But overall Jun spending was still depressed, down 10.9% from the same month last year, & up just 2.7 percentage points from the 13.6% decline in May year over year. Cortera said spending by industries that benefit from the work-from-home trend, like internet retailers & food & beverage stores, fell by 6 percentage points in Jun from May, but is still 1.7% above 2019 levels. Gasoline stations & food & beverage establishments & other sectors that would benefit from reopening spent 7 percentage points more in Jun than in May, but that is still lower than last year. “There are green shoots,” said Cortera CEO Jim Swift. But he added that the comeback in spending is a little softer than he expected because of setbacks & delays in the economic reopening, due to the spreading coronavirus. “I think the situation is one where we’re starting to recover, but it’s slower because of the persistence of the virus so people don’t go out as much,” he said. Swift said a positive in Jun was the 6 percentage point increase in manufacturing spending & a 15 percentage point jump in spending related to trucking shipments. “The fact we are seeing some upticks in that is the most encouraging thing. They're starting to get things back out in the market. If we can get the manufacturing guys going that’s real growth,” he said. Cortera created a reopen index, & nearly all industries that would benefit from the economic reopening increased spending, with the biggest being restaurants, furniture & air transportation. Spending by restaurants was up 18 percentage points from May's depressed level, but it is still down 30.5% from last year. 2/3 of all of the businesses increased their spending from May to Jun & 80% are still spending less than at the same time last year. 48 states saw increases in spending from May to Jun, with small & medium-size businesses recovering at a faster rate than large businesses, up 7 percentage points. However they were harder hit in Mar & Apr, & small business spending was still down 10% from last Jun.
June business spending showed slight improvement from May
Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia stressed the importance of school reopening this fall amid the coronavirus pandemic — specifically for female workers. Scalia underscored the impact of school closures on the “national recovery.” Scalia noted that prior to the pandemic, one of the “great successes to the economy” was the employment rate for women, but now, amid a resurgence of COVID-19 cases across the country, the unemployment rate for women is higher than for men. “The unemployment rate for women dropped nearly 3 percent in June,” Scalia added. “We have important work to do.” “Working women will have a harder time getting back to the workplace,” Scalia explained, citing studies that have shown that women in the household “bear the larger burden” in terms of child care & remote learning. “They continue to cite child care as a reason not to return to work.” He added: “For them, reopening schools would be very important.” Scalia went on to note that school closures also have a negative impact on low-income families & minorities. The Labor Dept reported last week that employers added 4.8M jobs in Jun — a record — & that the unemployment rate fell to 11.1%. Job losses were not proportional across the country, though. Some states have experienced a surge in layoffs — in May, 43 states set record jobless rate highs — while the losses have been more tempered in other states. These comments came as the Trump administration vowed to work hand-in-hand with states & governors to ensure a safe reopening for students, teachers & parents come this fall.
Gold futures climbed for a 4th straight session to score another settlement at their highest since 2011, supported by the prospect of a lengthy period of gov & central bank stimulus to support economies harmed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Aug gold rose $10 (0.6%) to settle at $1820 an ounce. Prices based on the most-active contract settled at their highest since 2011. Prices had gained 0.9% yesterday, to also mark their highest in nearly 9 years. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve's #2, Richard Clarida, did little to disabuse investors of the view that the Fed would do whatever it takes to limit the damage from the viral outbreak.
Gold up for a 4th session to log another 9-year high as traders see few limits to central-bank stimulus
Oil futures gained, lifting prices to their highest finish since Mar, as a rise in US crude imports & a weekly fall in gasoline supplies suggested an improvement in energy demand, even as domestic crude inventories posted a surprise climb. The Energy Information Administration reported (EIA) that U.S. crude inventories rose by 5.7M barrels last week. That followed a fall of 7.M barrels the week before & compared with a forecast for a decline of 3.7M barrels. The American Petroleum Institute yesterday reported an increase of about 2M barrels Total net petroleum imports stood at 5.01M barrels per day, up from 2.88M a week earlier, EIA data show. Imports of commercial crude oil were at 7.39M barrels per day, up from 5.97M. West Texas Intermediate crude for Aug climbed 28¢ (0.7%) to settle at $40.90 a barrel after ending virtually unchanged yesterday. Global benchmark Brent oil for Sep tacked on 21¢ (0.5%) at $43.29 a barrel following sideways trading in the previous session.
Oil prices at 4-month high as rise in U.S. crude imports and a fall in gasoline supplies point to improving energy demand
The Dow had a pop at the opening. Then sellers returned & it fell to even until the last hour when buyers reappeared. Meanwhile NAZ set a new record, powered by the sexy big name tech stocks. The economy is trying to came a comeback, but it continues to struggle because the coronavuris does not want to admit defeat. Gold continues in heavy demand.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow said that the US is in the middle of a "V-shaped recovery" amid the coronavirus pandemic that rocked the economy, while warning that it would be a "big mistake" to shut down the country amid a surge in positive cases of COVID-19. When asked about how the latest surge in positive cases of the novel coronavirus could affect the economy, he said: "We're looking very carefully." while touting a "tremendous burst of jobs in May and June" & "tremendous record hiring rates." "People are starting to quit their jobs again, which is extraordinary, in order to shop around for better jobs and wages." Kudlow noted that the increase in cases "could have an impact" on some cities in terms of jobs & openings, but said that "we just have to work our way through this." "We know the right mitigation, which has worked, and if we use that wholeheartedly and respect each other, I think we'll get out of this pretty well and it will not stop the V-shaped recovery," he added. He also warned that "it would really be a big mistake" to initiate another shutdown. "Another shutdown, in itself is controversial," Kudlow said, adding that it would "do more harm than good." "It would harm everyone," Kudlow continued. "Not just businesses — the V-shaped recovery would give way. It would harm kids, we saw numbers on depression, drinking and so on." He added: "That solution would be worse than the disease." More than 2 dozen states are experiencing a surge in positive COVID-19 cases amid their phased reopening. The US reported more than 3M cases of COVID-19 across the country & more than 131K deaths.
Kudlow says 'V-shaped recovery' still on, warns against making 'big mistake'
Companies struggling to get thru the
coronavirus slashed the amount of money they returned to shareholders
thru divs in Q2. The net change in Q2
payouts, or the difference between increases and decreases, for all
domestic common stocks registered a decline of $42.5B from a year
earlier, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at
S&P Dow Jones Indices. That
was the biggest drop since the $43.8B decrease in 2009 as the economy was escaping the last recession, &
follows a $5.5B decline in Q1 of this year. “There
were massive dividend suspensions in Q2 2020 as companies had no time
to ride out the virus, as sales were cut off and positive cash-flow
turned to burn-rate analysis,” Silverblatt said. For the S&P
500 large-cap companies, divs totaled $119B for the qtr,
compared with the record $127B issued in Q1. However, the Q2 total was a slight increase from the $118.7B a
year earlier. Div increases in the qtr totaled just $6.7B, a 45.7%
drop from a year ago, while decreases came to $49.2B. The US economy entered recession in Feb
when America came to a standstill due to stay-at-home orders associated with
the coronavirus containment. Q2
earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to fall 44% from the
same period a year ago, the steepest plunge since Q4-2008. That decline is projected to abate somewhat in Q3, to a loss of 25%, but the index is not expected to show
aggregate profitability until Q1 of 2021. While Silverblatt said there are signs that the worst is in for
div pullbacks, the damage is likely to continue into Q3. He said div suspensions rather than outright decreases
will be more prevalent. Much of that, though, will depend on the path of the virus & the extent to which the economy can reopen successfully. States that have seen flareups have begun to roll back their openings, threatening the slow growth. Should the virus continue to flare up, that could mean “a return to significant cuts,” he added.
Dividends plunge $42.5 billion in worst quarter since Great Recession
Business spending showed some signs of green shoots in Jun, as manufacturers bought more equipment & spending shifted away from stay-at-home sectors to ones that could rebound in a reopening economy, according to Cortera, a software company which analyzes business-to-business credit transactions. But overall Jun spending was still depressed, down 10.9% from the same month last year, & up just 2.7 percentage points from the 13.6% decline in May year over year. Cortera said spending by industries that benefit from the work-from-home trend, like internet retailers & food & beverage stores, fell by 6 percentage points in Jun from May, but is still 1.7% above 2019 levels. Gasoline stations & food & beverage establishments & other sectors that would benefit from reopening spent 7 percentage points more in Jun than in May, but that is still lower than last year. “There are green shoots,” said Cortera CEO Jim Swift. But he added that the comeback in spending is a little softer than he expected because of setbacks & delays in the economic reopening, due to the spreading coronavirus. “I think the situation is one where we’re starting to recover, but it’s slower because of the persistence of the virus so people don’t go out as much,” he said. Swift said a positive in Jun was the 6 percentage point increase in manufacturing spending & a 15 percentage point jump in spending related to trucking shipments. “The fact we are seeing some upticks in that is the most encouraging thing. They're starting to get things back out in the market. If we can get the manufacturing guys going that’s real growth,” he said. Cortera created a reopen index, & nearly all industries that would benefit from the economic reopening increased spending, with the biggest being restaurants, furniture & air transportation. Spending by restaurants was up 18 percentage points from May's depressed level, but it is still down 30.5% from last year. 2/3 of all of the businesses increased their spending from May to Jun & 80% are still spending less than at the same time last year. 48 states saw increases in spending from May to Jun, with small & medium-size businesses recovering at a faster rate than large businesses, up 7 percentage points. However they were harder hit in Mar & Apr, & small business spending was still down 10% from last Jun.
June business spending showed slight improvement from May
Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia stressed the importance of school reopening this fall amid the coronavirus pandemic — specifically for female workers. Scalia underscored the impact of school closures on the “national recovery.” Scalia noted that prior to the pandemic, one of the “great successes to the economy” was the employment rate for women, but now, amid a resurgence of COVID-19 cases across the country, the unemployment rate for women is higher than for men. “The unemployment rate for women dropped nearly 3 percent in June,” Scalia added. “We have important work to do.” “Working women will have a harder time getting back to the workplace,” Scalia explained, citing studies that have shown that women in the household “bear the larger burden” in terms of child care & remote learning. “They continue to cite child care as a reason not to return to work.” He added: “For them, reopening schools would be very important.” Scalia went on to note that school closures also have a negative impact on low-income families & minorities. The Labor Dept reported last week that employers added 4.8M jobs in Jun — a record — & that the unemployment rate fell to 11.1%. Job losses were not proportional across the country, though. Some states have experienced a surge in layoffs — in May, 43 states set record jobless rate highs — while the losses have been more tempered in other states. These comments came as the Trump administration vowed to work hand-in-hand with states & governors to ensure a safe reopening for students, teachers & parents come this fall.
This demographic of workers got slammed by school closures: Labor sec
The recent surge in the spread of the
coronavirus in California is hitting younger people harder than the initial
outbreak earlier this year, according to the latest data from the
California Dept of Public Health. Like many states,
California is seeing a resurgence of coronavirus cases in recent weeks. Confirmed cases have more than doubled in the last month, according to
the latest data from Johns Hopkins University. In Mar, about ½ of California’s new infections were identified
among people ages 18 to 49. So far this month, about 2/3 of new infections have been
diagnosed among that age group, even though only 45% of Californians
fall into that age range.
Coronavirus cases surge among younger CaliforniansGold futures climbed for a 4th straight session to score another settlement at their highest since 2011, supported by the prospect of a lengthy period of gov & central bank stimulus to support economies harmed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Aug gold rose $10 (0.6%) to settle at $1820 an ounce. Prices based on the most-active contract settled at their highest since 2011. Prices had gained 0.9% yesterday, to also mark their highest in nearly 9 years. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve's #2, Richard Clarida, did little to disabuse investors of the view that the Fed would do whatever it takes to limit the damage from the viral outbreak.
Gold up for a 4th session to log another 9-year high as traders see few limits to central-bank stimulus
Oil futures gained, lifting prices to their highest finish since Mar, as a rise in US crude imports & a weekly fall in gasoline supplies suggested an improvement in energy demand, even as domestic crude inventories posted a surprise climb. The Energy Information Administration reported (EIA) that U.S. crude inventories rose by 5.7M barrels last week. That followed a fall of 7.M barrels the week before & compared with a forecast for a decline of 3.7M barrels. The American Petroleum Institute yesterday reported an increase of about 2M barrels Total net petroleum imports stood at 5.01M barrels per day, up from 2.88M a week earlier, EIA data show. Imports of commercial crude oil were at 7.39M barrels per day, up from 5.97M. West Texas Intermediate crude for Aug climbed 28¢ (0.7%) to settle at $40.90 a barrel after ending virtually unchanged yesterday. Global benchmark Brent oil for Sep tacked on 21¢ (0.5%) at $43.29 a barrel following sideways trading in the previous session.
Oil prices at 4-month high as rise in U.S. crude imports and a fall in gasoline supplies point to improving energy demand
The Dow had a pop at the opening. Then sellers returned & it fell to even until the last hour when buyers reappeared. Meanwhile NAZ set a new record, powered by the sexy big name tech stocks. The economy is trying to came a comeback, but it continues to struggle because the coronavuris does not want to admit defeat. Gold continues in heavy demand.
Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment