Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Markets fall after stimulus talks falter

Dow dropped 84, decliners slightly ahead of  advancers & NAZ lost 32.  The MLP index  was flattish in the 128s & the REIT index gained 4 to 352.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were bid higher.  Oil near 41 was little changed & gold rose 15 to 1946 (another record).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil    41.21    -0.39-0.9%

GC=FGold      1,941.60
+10.60+0.6%






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Senate Reps' release of a coronavirus relief package started the thorny process of Congress crafting a bill to blunt the economic damage from the pandemic.  Now, GOP leaders & White House officials have to bridge a gulf between their priorities & the goals of top Dems during talks in the coming days.  While Congress will rush to strike a deal, leaders are not giving firm deadlines for when they aim to agree to & pass legislation.  Reps will not try to approve their proposal in the Senate.  Both the GOP-controlled Senate & Dem-held House appear intent on waiting to vote until the parties draft a plan that can get through both chambers & become law.  Negotiators started the process when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi  & Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer met with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin & White House chief of staff Mark Meadows.  Leaving the discussions, Meadows described a “very good meeting” & said talks with Dems would resume today.  Dems sounded less hopeful about where the bill stands.  “Unfortunately, we’re pretty far apart right now, although I’m optimistic we could have a good solution at the end,” Schumer said.  Asked if the sides could reach a deal before the end of next week, he said, “I hope so, and that’s what we’re working for. We’ll sit down. We’re going to sit down again today. We’ll sit down 24/7.”  Congress faces pressure to approve more aid, as any delays will hold back assistance to jobless Americans after states stopped paying out the $600 per week federal unemployment benefit this week.  A federal eviction moratorium expired, states are trying to process a flurry of Covid-19 tests during a nationwide surge & school districts are struggling to plan how to open safely in the fall.  After previous coronavirus aid packages passed with overwhelming support in the spring, the developing bill looks likely to draw less support.  Some GOP lawmakers have expressed concerns about more federal spending to buoy the economy after Congress allocated more than $2.5T to combat the pandemic earlier this year.

GOP and Democrats are far apart on coronavirus relief – here’s what happens next


The Federal Reserve said it is extending its menu of lending programs to businesses, govs & individuals to the end of 2020.  Originally set to expire Sep 30, the myriad facilities, stretching from credit to small businesses up to the purchase of junk bonds now will stretch to Dec 31.  The Fed began rolling out the initiatives as market functioning broke down in Mar.  A lack of liquidity stemming from fears over the coronavirus crisis froze markets & pushed the Fed into various credit facilities, a number of which had their origins during the financial crisis.  “The extraordinary Federal Reserve response to the COVID-19 pandemic, supported by Treasury’s equity capital, has played a vital role in improving liquidity and restoring market function,” Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said.  “Through this extension, we will continue to support the flow of credit to American workers, businesses and municipalities.”  Treasury had to sign off on the extension has it provides funding, which the Fed can then use as collateral to lever up.  Programs covered include facilities for primary dealers & money markets, corp bond purchases on both the primary & 2nd markets & the most recent rollout, the Main Street Lending Program.  The Term Asset-Backed Securities facility also is included, as is the Fed’s end of the Paycheck Protection Program, the congressional initiative aimed at incentivizng businesses to maintain employees & continue operating during the pandemic.  A lending program for local & state govs already had been set to run to Dec 31 & the commercial paper facility, which provides short-term funding for businesses, expires Mar 2021.  The extension comes even though the take-up on most of the programs has been fairly slow.  When they announced the initiatives in early Apr, Fed officials said the facilities could provide some $2.3T worth of funding.  Thus far, though, the total loans have been about $110B.  Market functioning also has been strong, with corp bond issuance, for instance, running at record levels.

The Fed is extending its lending programs until the end of the year

McDonald's (MCD), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported a bigger-than-expected drop in global same store sales & missed profit expectations, as its restaurants were shut due to the COVID-19 pandemic, limiting operations to only drive-thru & delivery.  Global same-store sales fell 23.9% for Q2, dragged down by big intl markets including the UK, France & Latin America.  The forecast called for a 23% fall.  In the US, where it operates more than a 1/3 of its restaurants, same-restaurant sales fell 8.7%, but were better than the anticipated 9.9% fall, as most locations were able to stay open with drive-thru & delivery options.  As lockdowns eased, sales improved & losses were not as bad, providing some optimism for a measured rebound.  “Our strong drive-thru presence and the investments we've made in delivery and digital over the past few years have served us well through these uncertain times," CEO Chris Kempczinski said.  Revenue fell 30.5% to $3.76B, but beat the estimate of $3.68B.  Excluding one-time items, EPS was 66¢, 8¢ below expectations.  The stock fell 4.40.
If you would like to learn  mor about MCD, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MCD?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

McDonald's sees bigger-than-expected losses as lockdowns bite operations


Those guys in DC are trying to come up with another stimulus bill, &, as usual, the final product will go down the last minute if not later.  Meanwhile earnings reports are not looking good in a depression time period.  This is what gold bugs like to see.

Dow Jones Industrials








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